Sportszilla and the Jabber Jocks

The End, and a New Beginning

2006-09-04T12:18:00.000-04:00

Today marks the final day of Sportszilla, at least on Blogger. Starting tomorrow, we're moving to a brand new website, www.sportszillablog.com, on a new server and with new content managing software. It will rpovide for a smoother, more enjoyable experience and will allow us to do a whole bunch of new and exciting things. For the time being, this site will serve as the archive of past Sportszilla goodness, but no new content will be published here.

Tomorrow we'll launch the new site with our NFL previews, and move on from there. Please join us in the future...and the future is now!

Below is a press release about the new site:

My name is Zachary Geballe, as some of you may know. As others of you may know, I run a sports weblog (blog) called Sportszilla and the Jabber Jocks. What I doubt any of you know is that Tuesday, September 5th, marks a whole new era for Sportszilla, and for me.

The launch of our new site, which can be found at www.sportszillablog.com, will coincide with our extensive NFL previews. From there, we’ll still be running the same great content that perhaps attracted you to Sportszilla in the first place.

I founded Sportszilla in November of 2004, which means we’re creeping up on a two-year anniversary. In my first post ever, I said “So, here’s my attempt at encapsulating the world of sports, at least from my point of view.” Yes, I know, a typically grandiose statement to make, but one that I still think holds true. From the beginning, I saw Sportszilla as an antidote, or at least an alternative, to sites like ESPN.com and the other lumbering behemoths of online sports writing. Of course, when I did this, there were few other places on could turn for regular, high-quality sportswriting. Today, nearly two years later, the Internet is littered with sports blogs, some good, some bad, and some that only lasted four posts.

Over the last 21 months, I’ve been fortunate enough to be able to add five excellent writers to the Sportszilla team, all of whom I’m also fortunate enough to call my friends. Ben Valentine, David Arnott, Bryan Koch, Imtiaz (T-Bone) Mussa, and John Schmeelk have provided excellent insight, analysis, and fun (plus a lot of soccer coverage from T-Bone) to the site. Sportszilla would never have become what it is today without all their hard work.

As we get ready to usher in the new era, a few things need to be said. The goal of Sportszilla was, is, and always will be to provide top-notch sports writing free of the typical clichés and inanities that plague newspapers and web sites. We have the luxury of being outside the corporate structure, so we can say what we truly think without fear of advertiser reprisal or loss of access. We’re also committed to helping grow the sports blogging community. I read about a dozen blogs on a daily basis and have visited hundreds more from time to time: long gone are the days when a few media outlets horded information and analysis, parceling it out in meager and unreadable doses; we can now function as sports fans without ever needing to subscribe to ESPN Insider or deal with some of the knuckleheads who write for other major websites.

So to those of you who are my friends and family, I invite you to check out the new site, which once again can be found at www.sportszillablog.com. For those of you who are in the sports blogging world, I too invite you to visit the new site (often), and more than that to link to it (if you so choose). One of the great things about the community of sports bloggers is that there’s a great sense of camaraderie, not competition, surrounding it.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions, comments, concerns, or fantasy football tips (my draft is tonight).

Assault on .500: Double Your Fun

2006-09-04T02:56:00.000-04:00

And the Yankees and Red Sox thought they had it tough.

Between Saturday and Sunday, the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves played four games courtesy of a back to back double dip. Thankfully for the two teams they happened in September, where extra arms were available. Both days the teams split.

Meanwhile the story continues to be Ryan Howard who slugged three home runs today in game one, bringing his total up to 52 on the year. However you can read about baseball’s rising star anywhere nowadays. But this is one of the few places on the internet where you also get the flip side.

And that flip side went 1-6 with 2 walks and two runs scored in the series. With the back to back double headers, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel elected to give Jose Hernandez a pair of starts at 3B in the night caps. However Nunez found his way into the Saturday one anyway, going 0-1. Overall in 246 ABs (269 PA) this brings his splits to:

.199/.269/.256/.525

Since Jose Hernandez did play and the rosters have expanded, it’s certainly possible Nunez begins to lose ABs. On the other hand Hernandez would have to distinguish himself and he seems rather unlikely to do that considering he’s got a 696 OPS to this point. Nunez has also show a decent ability to walk which might be a reason he’s still around. Thus, the Nunez show probably will continue, as he strives towards the .500 OPS mark.

To be fair, one of the big reasons Nunez is likely still in the lineup has to do with Ryan Howard’s emergence. Many times managers will believe they can carry a below average regular when they have an MVP candidate tearing the cover off the ball higher in the lineup. It may not be the right rationale, but you see it frequently around baseball. So thanks to Howard and to some extent Chase Utley, Nunez gets to post an .525 OPS and still play every day.

Finally in a somewhat unrelated note, Howard no doubt deserves MVP consideration at this point. But in a story that should be getting a far more press than it has, take a look at the wild card standings as baseball hits Labor Day:

Padres 70-66 __

Phillies 69-68 1.5 GB

Marlins 68-68 2

Reds 68-69 2.5

Giants 68-69 2.5

Astros 67-70 3.5

That’s right… the Florida Marlins, team of the 14 million dollar payroll, is just two games back of the wild card. And so while Howard (1.043) should be getting MVP press, Miguel Cabrera (1.002 OPS) should be getting that and then some. Remember, Cabrera plays 3B for a team that has arguably the best pitcher’s park in baseball. And if that team makes the post season this year, there’s no question Cabrera, clearly the best offensive weapon in a mediocre lineup, deserves the award.

Heck he might deserve some consideration if they miss it by a couple of games.

College Madness: The Preseason Top 10

2006-09-01T03:37:00.000-04:00

Strike up the marching band because it’s that time of year again. College football has returned.

The season opened up Thursday, though no one of real note was in action. The real fun begins this weekend culminating in a game which could go a long way to deciding a conference; Florida State v. Miami on Labor Day night. As usual we can expect plenty of twists, turns and plenty of BCS controversy by the last week in October. And while most college football top tens are useless at this point in the season since most are just going off scouting reports, last year’s team and school rep, I decided to honor the start of the 2006 campaign with a top 10 of my own.

However, I didn’t rank the teams on who I thought was the best. Instead I ranked them based on where I thought they’d finish. Some might quibble with for example, where I put the West Virginia Mountaineers. However their schedule is a joke and as a result, they shouldn’t lose any more than one game. If you go undefeated you’ve got a shot at the National Title game.

In any case here’s my top 10. Feel free to chastise me all you like.

#1- Ohio State: I hate the Buckeyes, but I love QB Troy Smith as a college player. He destroyed a Notre Dame defense even more than Vince Young lit up USC. If Tressel sticks with him, they’re going to be hard to beat. The defense has questions after losing players like LBs AJ Hawk and Bobby Carpenter to the draft but Ohio State is never short of replacements. They might struggle early, but figure the offense does enough to win them games. It almost did last year. Remember if Smith is on the field for that whole game against Texas, it’s Ohio State in Pasadena, not the Longhorns.

#2- Miami: This year people are starting them off low; some even think that Florida State is better. Don’t buy into the hype. The Canes were young last year and had some growing up to do. A tough schedule is an issue, circle Florida State and at Louisville as season making games, but last year this team had the talent to beat anyone on any given Saturday, including USC or Texas. This year they’ll bring it all together. Or Larry Coker will have to find himself a new job.

#3- West Virginia: HB Steve Slaton gets much of the talk but QB Pat White has all the makings of a scary college QB; if he can learn to throw the ball efficiently. With a joke schedule, all the Mountaineers have to do is beat Louisville. Not as easy as it sounds though; Louisville will be good and the game is in their place. Of course, they beat a heavily favored Georgia, in the Georgia Dome so they can win on the road.

#4- Texas: They have loads of talent as usual, but people need to realize how important Vince Young was last year. The guy put up 400 yards against the top ranked team in the national championship game. That’s 400 yards by himself! There’s no way Texas can replace that type of player in one season. They’ll be helped by a weak Big 12, but against a top team, they’re toast.

#5-LSU: I never liked the SEC, but over the last two years I’ve had to admit it’s the best conference without question in college football. While most of the others run one or two deep tops, there at least four teams in the SEC that can beat you on any given day. LSU had to overcome a great deal of difficulty last year after first losing their coach to the NFL and then Hurricane Katrina. Despite that, they went 11-2. This year they’ll have to make without players like HB Joseph Addai, who has left for the NFL but like many top programs, that just opens up spots for talented underclassmen (Justin Vincent?). QB JaMarcus Russell will likely be the key to their offense. They probably have the most talent in the SEC. But in with their grueling in conference schedule, they’ll need every bit of it.

#6-USC: Remember when the Trojans lost Carson Palmer to the NFL a few years back? People wondered how they’d manage. Well… they did… somehow. Not saying that John David Booty will be the next great USC QB, but everyone always talks about how deep they are at the position. It’s impossible to replace Reggie Bush and LenDale White but the Trojans still have their talented WR core, so they can always let it fly early on while finding their feature back. Plus they don’t figure to face much of a challenge until an October date with Arizona State and that’s at home. Their opener against Arkansas on the road might be dicey, but one figures the talent will win out there. Their losses on the O-Line will hurt them in a big spot down the road, possibly in a bowl game. But they should be in the top ten the whole year.

#7- Notre Dame: The beginning of their schedule is a nightmare; the end a joke. If they can get through only losing one of their first four, they’ll be fine. Watch out for that last game at USC… those young players will be veterans by the time that game rolls around. Brady Quinn has to show he can do it against a real team before I consider him Heisman quality. Where was he against the Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl? Oh yeah and that defense still can’t stop anyone good.

#8- Louisville: It’s all about QB Brian Brohm. This is a solid team that can win the Big East and make a BCS bowl if Brohm is over his knee injury from last year. He’s supposedly ahead of schedule, which is a good sign for the Cardinals. Their season comes down to two games; both at home; Miami and West Virginia. Also they must be careful with the Pittsburgh Panthers late in the season, as they are on the road for that one. And with the Panthers’ easy schedule, they figure to be in the hunt for a Big East title.

#9- Auburn: The SEC strikes again. The Tigers lost three significant players off their offense in 2005. In a tough SEC that was going to doom them. This year they can make a run, though the conference is the reason why they probably aren’t a legit national title contender. Let’s face it, it’s better to play one tough opponent and lose none than play four and lose two.

#10- Oregon Ducks: They went 10-2 last year and were snubbed from the BCS game. This year the Pac-10 is very much up for grabs with the USC losses and the Ducks should be considered very much in the mix. After losing last year’s #1 QB Kellen Clemens to injury, they went undefeated until a late fourth quarter loss to Oklahoma in the Holliday Bowl, so one figures their signal calling position should be secure. It could well repeat as a two QB rotation like last year, but again, it did work out well. The defense is a concern, but it wasn’t exactly good last year either and the team was 10-2. They figure to climb the polls slowly, as this school never gets any respect.

So as you might guess, I’m a believer in an Ohio State/Miami Fiesta Bowl; aka the rematch of 2002. Of course that is too perfect, so it’ll probably end up being Ohio State and Florida, two teams I absolutely can’t stand.

Oh well, we’ll see. As college football fans well know, in this short 11-12 game season, anything can happen.

And it probably will.

Assault on .500: Done Swatting the Nats

2006-09-01T02:30:00.000-04:00

If the Philadelphia Phillies played the Washington Nationals every night, Abraham Nunez would be an all star.

Okay maybe not an all star, but a pretty solid contributor.

Thursday Nunez went 2 for 5 with a run scored, while overall posting a 5 for 13 in this series with an RBI, intentional walk and a whopping five runs scored! As I wrote a few days back, Nunez just owns Washington. Unfortunately for him, the Phillies don’t see the Nats again until the last week of September. Thus, he can’t expect a nice stat boost from their lousy rotation anytime soon.

So as it stands now, his splits through 261 plate appearances are:

.200/.266/.258/.524.

He is now tied OPS wise with Homer Bush’s 2000 after starting the series at .508. I’d say he had a pretty solid three days.

So we have a dead heat as we head into the final month of baseball. Will he pull a Cristian Guzman and post an .850 OPS the rest of the way? (No joke, that’s what Guzman hit the final month of 2005) Or will he continue his way towards history?

Up next, four games at Citizen’s Bank with the Braves. This of course might actually be good for Nunez, since these aren’t your daddy’s Braves. They can score a ton, but can’t pitch to save their lives. (Which is why their playoff chances are essentially dead) For the record, Nunez has an of OPS of .551 in 17 ABs this year, so a greater improvement might be on the way. Bush’s lousy 2000 might be safe.

Finally, I direct you to a post done by Chris over at the blog “I’ve Made a Huge Tiny Mistake,” where he writes a Philly fan’s reaction to Nunez being intentionally walked Wednesday night. It’s definitely a good read, as his recap of that eighth inning and the ninth shows why it was in fact, a horrible decision. (Contrary to what I wrote yesterday, but I must have been flush with his three hit performance the night before) So check it out.

Until tomorrow, keep it up Abraham… or not.

Assault on .500: Quick Nightly Update

2006-08-31T03:04:00.000-04:00

Some random baseball thoughts today, but of course we start with the watch.

I won’t spend too much time on this, since while I think it is interesting to follow, it can get tiring very quickly. Tonight Abraham Nunez went 0-3 with an RBI and intentional walk. The Nats decided they’d rather face pitcher Cole Hamels than Nunez. For the record, Hamels has splits of .121/.250/.121/.371. That means that Hamels reached base just .014 percent less than Nunez in his plate appearances this year! (He’s walked six times and struck out 18, that’s pretty good for a pitcher). But since Hamels hasn’t gotten anything other than a single to this point, it was the right move.

Overall that saved his night from being a complete disaster OBP wise, though that of course does nothing for his slugging.

So to recap, Nunez now at official 235 ABs (256 overall),and has a line of:

.196/.264/.255/.519

To be the worst player of the decade, he’ll need to top Homer Bush’s 2000 splits of:

.215/.271/.253/.524

Keep it here as the watch continues.

Other baseball notes:

-I live in NY, so I don’t read the Boston papers. But I gather it’s only a matter of time before some idiot sportswriter starts screaming “curses” again with this latest string of Red Sox injuries. Manny goes down to leg problems, Ortiz has to be hospitalized twice in two weeks, Jason Varitek, Trot Nixon and Willy Mo Pena are out, their rotation is permanently D/L’d and now young pitcher Jon Lester is undergoing numerous medical tests, including some for cancer. Oh and the Red Sox are toast in the American League playoff race and it’s not even September 1st.

Just a passing mention on Ortiz. It’s ironic how his hospitalization a few weeks back caused by “stress” was not made more of. Lord knows if Alex Rodriguez had undergone the same situation, everyone in baseball would be snickering at the poor guy. With Big Papi, nobody says a word, because he’s so “clutch.”

This isn’t meant an insult; I'm just making a point. What do you think would happen if A-Rod was hospitalized because of “stress?”

-Mark Mulder is likely done for the year after tests revealed “fraying” at in his rotator cuff. Not to be cruel, but this is a blessing for the Cardinals. Mulder had been completely ineffective since his return from the DL both in the majors AND minors. Anthony Reyes hasn’t been great so far, but he’s been a major league pitcher. It may be awhile before Mulder re-enters that category considering the problems he’s dealt with for three years.

By the way, think the Cardinals would love to have Dan Haren and Kiko Calero back right about now?

-I’ll get around to a closer look soon enough, but the NL MVP race has become extremely interesting. Albert Pujols has seen his OPS lead on Carlos Beltran shrunk down to .065 and since Beltran plays a very good centerfield, he now has a very legitimate case for the award if the season ended today. Also throwing their hats into the race are Ryan Howard and Miguel Cabrera, who’s actually been in it the whole time but no one’s noticed. Lance Berkman quietly is second in the NL in OPS. Handicapping the race quickly:

Pujols: Best hitter in the league. But plays first.

Beltran: Not Pujols OPS but at a pitcher’s park, great centerfielder.

Berkman: Great hitter, but plays plenty of first. That hurts his value.

Howard: Plays the same position as Pujols. Also plays in Citizen’s Bank.

Cabrera: Plays in the best pitcher’s park, plays third, team’s out of it.

As I said, I’ll get a bit more in depth soon enough. But it should be an interesting September for those baseball fans who care about the hardware handed out at the end of each season.

The Assault on .500: The Worst Hitters of the Last Six Years

2006-08-30T01:05:00.000-04:00

Tuesday night Abraham Nunez must have partied like the Phillies had just won game seven of the World Series.

The struggling third baseman was back in the starting lineup for the Phillies tonight even though his OPS was rapidly approaching the wrong side of .500. Well, he rewarded his manager’s confidence with three hits and two runs scored in five at bats. That takes his splits all the way up to:
.198/.264/.259/.523.

With just three hits in one game, all singles, he raised his OPS fifteen points from .508. What a night.

As a side note, you’d probably guess that it would have been Nunez first three hit night of the season right? Nope. It was his third. He did it at the end of April against the team he first came up with, the Pittsburgh Pirates, and a little over two weeks ago, this time against the Washington Nationals. Oh and who were the Phillies playing tonight?

The Washington Nationals.

In fact heading into tonight’s game, he had a .733 OPS against the Nats this season. With some quick math here, I calculate his splits against them are: .280/.379/.480/.859. That’s eight hundred and fifty nine in 25 ABs this year.

Ladies and gentlemen, Abraham Nunez owns the Nationals.

If baseball commissioner Bud Selig still wanted to contract this team, he probably could give no better reason than the one right there.

In any case, with his robust performance tonight, Nunez has now fallen to neck and neck in the race to be the worst player in baseball so far this decade. Since 2000, the lowest OPS a player with 300 plate appearances has put up is .524, done by Homer Bush in the year 2000. Bush was a Yankee prospect who found his way to Toronto in the Roger Clemens trade and never panned out. I still remember friends of mine in high school telling he how good he was. Little did I know back then that he would currently hold the title of “worst season of the decade.”

Now there’s a slight caveat with that; I originally said I was going to do 250 plate appearances, since Nunez is actually at that point now. The leader for that is Jermaine Dye, who managed an astronomically low .514 OPS in 221 ABs in 2003. But the problem is 221 seems a bit low. Consider that if Nunez was cut tomorrow, that would mean he would qualify despite starting for just one month. I feel as though that would cheapen what this crop of players has actually accomplished, so we’ll keep it to 300 plate appearances.

Without further adieu, excluding Nunez, the top ten worst players OPS wise since 2000:

10. 2003- Tony Womack: D-Backs/Cubs/Rockies, SS, 349 AB .226/.251/.307/.558

9. 2005- Tony Womack: Yankees: 2B/CF, 329 AB, .249/.276/.280/.556

8. 2002- Caesar Izturis: Dodgers, SS, 439 AB, .232/.253/.303/.556

7.2003- Brandon Phillips: Indians, 2B, 370 AB, .208/.242/.311/.553

6. 2002- Chris Truby: Tigers, 3B, 382 AB, .215/.238/.314/.552

5. 2001- Jack Wilson: Pirates, SS, 390 AB, .223/.255/.295/.550

4. 2000- Alex Gonzalez: Marlins, SS, 385 AB, .200/.229/.319/.548

3. 2002- Ron Belliard: Brewers, 2B, 289 AB, .211/.257/.287/.544

2. 2002- Einer Diaz: Indians, C, 320 AB, .206/.258/.284/.542

1. 2000- Homer Bush: Blue Jays, 2B, 297 AB, .215/.271/.253/.524

Quite a cast of characters. Some interesting things about that list:

-Tony Womack appears twice which is amazing because both seasons happened on the wrong side of 30. And in both times, he was back in the majors the year following, with the Cardinals in 2004, and then the Reds and Cubs this season. As if these teams couldn’t take a hint. Because he makes it up here twice, Womack has a serious argument for being the worst player of the decade to this point.

-So Einer Diaz’s 2002 ranks as the second worst for any player this decade. The Indians got smart and dumped him that offseason to Texas along with Ryan Drese in a trade. Who did Texas give up for that black hole of talent?

Travis Hafner.

I might have to take my list of the worst trades of the last five years back. Hafner for a guy who was coming off a historically bad season equals a historically bad trade.

So take heart Phillies fans. If you can deal Nunez this offseason you might get a potential MVP back!

- Cristian Guzman’s 2005 didn’t make it… and didn’t come close. His .574 OPS is just way too good for the likes of these players.

-The Alex Gonzalez who ranks fourth is the one who plays in Boston, not the one who originally signed with the Phillies this year and then retired. So no, the Phillies did not have the chance to employ two of the worst players of the last six years in the same infield.

-Of the ten (well nine) players listed there, six… that’s two thirds, played in the big leagues this year. And it’s possible Diaz does when the rosters expand in September. Only Bush and Truby are guaranteed not to play this season. So Nunez will probably find himself back in the big leagues next year… and quite possibly for years to come.

-The Cubs get special notice because they not only acquired Womack during his miserable 2003 but brought him back this year after his miserable 2005, after he was already released by the Reds earlier in the season. They also have Izturis currently on roster after dealing Greg Maddux for him. He’s got a .570 OPS in 179 ABs this year with a .559 mark for the Cubbies since the trade. He’s improved mightily in those four years.

-The Indians also get some special props as well, since they employed three guys, Diaz, Belliard and Brandon Phillips during or after their awful seasons. But unlike the Cubs they get off the hook because they turned Diaz into Hafner.

-The only player on that list who was over 30 during their miserable seasons is Womack. That’s significant because it suggests the teams gave these guys longer leashes because they were expected to grow into their roles. Of course the truth is the only one who might have is Belliard, who had some 750+ OPS years mixed in. The rest all stunk, with some mediocrity thrown the way of Jack Wilson in Pittsburgh.

If Nunez manages does manage to finish the year with over 300 PA and a sub .550 OPS, he would become the oldest player this decade to do that. Quite an accomplishment, as most guys who fail at the plate so prolifically at the age of 30 or over end up getting DFA’d. Unless your name is Tony Womack of course.

So the road will not be easy for Nunez the rest of the way. He’ll need nights like this followed by five or six games of no hits or walks if he wants to make a serious run at Homer Bush’s 2000. If he just stinks overall, the Phillies will find someone who can play better, since he doesn’t have youth on his side as a defense.

Coincidently, the Phillies finish up the season at Florida. Why is that important?

If Nunez maintained his current OPS through 300 plate appearances (he now has 252) he would just beat out Bush’s 2000 by .001 of a point.

Now that’s what I call a close election.

Update: The Assault on .500

2006-08-29T01:16:00.000-04:00

Today was a big day for the Phillies. They had split the first two games with the Mets, and could have found themselves just a half game out of the wild card with a victory today. But they were going to need runs, as they were up against the NL’s most potent lineup with Jamie Moyer, who’s “ageless wonder” status only applies at Safeco Field. So what would that slugging third baseman Abraham Nunez contribute today?

0-3 with a BB.

Well at least he walked… right? His current line now stands at:

.189/.257/.251/.508- down from .511 on Saturday. (Rain out Sunday)

Creeping ever closer to .500. It would have dropped even further but Mets’ starter John Maine had to go mess things up by walking him with one out in the seventh inning and the Mets up 7-2. As punishment, Mets manager Willie Randolph immediately went out to the mound and yanked Maine from the game. A demotion might follow. (All kidding aside, Maine was at 108 pitches. It was the right move.)

But for those who want to see the “assault on .500” succeed for notoriety’s sake (or for comedic purposes), never fear. Nunez struck out to end the game.

As an anonymous reader points out, Nunez has actually played well, for his own standards anyway, over the last month. He actually had at .609 OPS in the month of August heading into a Monday’s game after a .572 month of July. August was the first full month he was a regular, so maybe there is a hope for him to be terrible rather than the absolute worst in baseball.

Up next the Phillies head to RFK, which has actually played favorable to hitters this year. With that awful Nats’ staff, Nunez might be able to get that OPS up a little more.

Coming up next time, in addition to seeing what Nunez has done for the night, we’ll also see how he stacks up against the worst OPS guys of the last five years with a minimum of 250 plate appearances.

So until next time, the watch continues.

The Watch

2006-08-28T03:38:00.000-04:00

Sometimes in sports a player gets near something momentous and people begin to take notice. Updates are streamed in nightly, your local news carries it even though the guy is across the country. Heck your own team’s broadcasters are mentioning it during scoreboard updates.

For example, you might remember such things from the home run races in baseball over the last ten years. Whenever Mark McGwire came to the plate, stations would either cut away to show his AB or tell you how it ended. His nightly line was posted at the top of every sports website. Or for a more recent example, see the hoopla over Chase Utley’s hit streak. (or currently, Willy Taveras’)

Well Sportszilla is getting into the action as well. But for the other end of the spectrum. Instead, we’ll be keep track of a foray into futility as we proudly present:

“The Abraham Nunez Watch: One Man’s Quest to Post an OPS Below .500 While Staying In the Starting Lineup.”

Recently, I’ve been blasting the fact Nunez has an OPS in the .500’s, which is not only miserable for a regular, but down right awful for a third baseman. And to top it off he plays at Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, an excellent place for hitters. When I first mentioned him, Nunez had an OPS at .535. The next time he came up it was at .530. And now where does the Phillies’ third baseman reside?

.192/.257/.254/.511

.511. Five hundred and freaking eleven. And that’s amazing for a few reasons:

Reason one: How the hell can a major league player post a number that low in 224 ABs? It’s actually very hard to do because the only way a player gets that many ABs with such awful splits is if he’s got tremendous upside. In other words an all star caliber player or top prospect on a lousy team. But if a guy has that much talent, then there’s no way he’ll play that badly.

Nunez is none of those, since he’s 30 and has never been good. And the Phillies are in playoff contention, just one game back of the wild card. More in this later.

Reason two: He’s walked 19 times this year. Why would anyone walk him… ever? The pitcher is pretty much as likely to hurt you.

Reason three: How is he still the every day third baseman for a team in playoff contention? Young players with his numbers would have been shipped down to the minors already and most probably would have been dumped at AA. But Nunez is 30, so since he really has no upside, a guy like him should be released. I mean there is almost no way the Phillies could start someone worse at third. In the thick of a playoff race, how can anyone justify him being placed out there?

Reason four: According to ESPN, Nunez is owned by 53.6% of NL only leagues compared to 0.0% in regular ones. Even more incredibly, that NL number increased by 16.8% in the last week.

This is why NL/AL only leagues aren’t any fun. Any league where over half the owners are compelled to own the worst regular in baseball is not a league worth being a part of.

So the questions are, can Nunez continue his assault on .500 and somehow manage to maintain his job? Keep it here for all the updates.

Hey home run races come around nowadays, what, once every five years? What Nunez is trying to accomplish… well that’s something that you just don’t see everyday.

Not even in Kansas City.

How Can You Pinch Hit for So Taguchi?

2006-08-25T03:33:00.000-04:00

How sweep it is.

If the Mets vs. Cardinals series at Shea Stadium this week was supposed to be a preview of things to come in the postseason, then the fans of the Amazins’ can sit back and let a broad smile form across their face. If this series showed anything, it showed the National League this:

The top of the class has room for one only.

Of course, regular season glory is worth nothing but the price of admission to the Show that is October baseball. What you do then is what defines a team and how it will be remembered. The three game sweep the Mets just completed over the St. Louis Cardinals sends a message, it makes a statement and yes, clearly illustrates how the upper echelon of NL Teams are divided. But it doesn’t give you entry to the World Series; it just increases the pressure on you to get there.

But that being said, we learned a bit about the Cardinals in this series, and for the finale of such an important regular season set of games, I felt I should go out to Shea. Or, I actually found someone who was willing to go. My high school buddy Patrick Lee is a pseudo Mets fan, one of those people who “love NY” and thus claim to pull for both teams. Needless to say, I’m always skeptical of that and my fears would prove valid early on.

After a quick stop in Flushing for some high quality Lucia’s Pizza, (right off the last stop on the 7 Train on Roosevelt Avenue, best pizza I’ve ever had, and Sportszilla endorsed!) we headed over to Shea. After parking by my grandmother’s apartment building on 113th street, since there’s no way anyone wants to pay 10 bucks for parking, Pat gets out and puts on…

A Yankees cap.

Now, anyone who reads me consistently knows I’m a Mets fan and have the reputation as the #1 Yankee hater in these parts. So you can imagine my dismay to see that the person I’m going with puts on their cap as I’m about to enter the holy house that is Shea Stadium. (Holy house is strong but it’s the only park I’ve ever known) Plus from my own experiences and those of others, I know Mets fans don’t like Yankee fans flaunting it in their house. Unfortunately, flaunt is Pat’s middle name.

Plus with my corn rows not in, I had a huge fro preventing my Mets hat from fitting on my head. Finally, I was wearing a navy colored shirt, making me look like the perfect accessory to a Yankees fan. Oh yes… it was going to be fun, I thought.

So with some dread, at least in my case, we walked on over to Shea in the midst of a rain storm. It had nearly abated by the time we got to the game, so it would only be a half hour delay until baseball. The classic pitching battle… Jason Marquis against Dave Williams. And by classic, I mean classically bad.

Well Marquis does have 13 wins. So what if he’s statistically the worst pitcher in the NL, right? It’s a shame Tom Glavine had to miss his start Tuesday, then the Mets could have thrown Steve Trachsel in this game! The worst two pitchers in the NL matched up in a battle for the NL lead in wins. But nope, Tommy G had to go and get a blood clot in his shoulder, forcing the Mets to move everyone up a day. So instead we get Dave Williams, who might be bad, but hasn’t been for as long as the aforementioned duo.

That had me thinking, what’s the worst pitcher and worst hitter I could see facing one another. The goal; create a horrific “Black Hole of Utter Suckage” which die hard baseball fans would grimace at upon seeing the match up, yet have to watch just to see who sucked less. Marquis was the obvious nominee for NL starting pitcher, and the regular who came to mind quickly was the Phillies’ Abraham Nunez of the .530 OPS (It's actually gotten worse since Tuesday!). Overall, it would probably be Nunez and Royals starter Scott Elarton, who did nothing but give up runs until a shoulder injury put him out for the season.

Nominees for the “Black Hole of Utter Suckage” are appreciated, and you can throw out any pitcher/batter combination, not just starters. (However no pitchers as hitters)

Meanwhile Pat’s Yankee hat didn’t exactly draw the ire of Mets fans as I had suspected it would. He showed it off to Yankee fans passing by, but that was about it. Guess the rain delay had weeded out the obnoxious blowhards, who probably don’t have the patience to sit one of those out.

Anyway there was a game after all, and it started amazingly enough without a run being scored in the 1st inning. You’d figure that was helped by the Cardinals batting So Taguchi in the two hole right? Well, he promptly doubled. The man I really came to see, Albert Pujols, smoked a ball off Williams to deep left that Pat and I both thought was long gone. But instead, Endy Chavez caught it at the edge of the warning track.

As a side note, one of the many that will be appearing in this, when I mentioned that I’ve heard many women think So Taguchi is good looking, Pat was shocked. His response; and this is completely verbatim:

“What the hell? He’s a 37 year old man who looks like a 15 year old girl.”

Back to the game. Dave Williams was your typical soft tossing lefty, with a video game-ish slow curve. Seriously; he was tossing it in a 64 mph. What was even weirder was that his fastball topped out at 87 and his change up frequently came in at 81. So there was no real difference between either pitch. Outside of the curve, he really had nothing. And yet the Cardinals top hitters struggled against him all night. Proves once again in one game anything is possible.

The Mets put the first two men on against Marquis, so I was figuring a four spot in the first was guaranteed. Then Carlos Beltran popped out and Carlos Delgado grounded into a double play, much to dismay of Pat’s fantasy team. But he said he’s downright abusing his league anyway. I’m not surprised… someone in his league just dealt Pujols and Mike Mussina for Chipper Jones and Bobby Jenks, two weeks after dealing Jason Giambi for Brad Lidge. That's horrid, I mean would you deal Jeremy Giambi for Lidge now... or two weeks ago? Still I could use some tips, my team is in second to last in the league me and the rest of the Sportszilla writers are in. To make matters more embarrassing, my co-owner and I are dropping like a stone. Unfortunately, none would take Lidge off our hands for Giambi. If it wasn’t for the fact Bryan’s team is falling even faster, we’d be guaranteed the number one pick next year.

However if you’d like tips on how to dominate a league, send your questions to John Schmeelk. He’s currently running away with ours.

In the second inning Shawn Green in his new #20 Mets’ jersey came to the plate with the fans chanting his name. It seems Lastings Milledge has made many enemies at Shea already this year. They’re probably just jealous he didn’t slap their hands.

Green smoked a ball, but Ron Belliard (who apparently thinks he’s “thugness incarnate”, just look at his pic) forgot he’s a miserable defensive second baseman and made a leaping grab. He flipped the ball back to Pujols to double up a stunned David Wright. Maybe it wouldn’t be the Mets night.

Then in the third, they remembered who was pitching.

Williams led off the inning by working a long at bat. I actually lost count of how many pitches Marquis threw to him; which is a very bad sign when the opposing pitcher is up. Williams was eventually called out on strikes, but things got a lot hotter for Marquis. After Jose Reyes singled again and then stole second, Paul LoDuca tripled him home with some help from Preston Wilson kicking the ball around in the corner like he was auditioning for US Soccer. Uh Preston, the World Cup was in June. Beltran and Delgado both walked which brought up Wright. The third baseman hit a deep fly to right, but Wilson caught it at the warning track. LoDuca scored to give the Mets a 2-0 lead. Finally Green endeared himself to Mets fans some more by singling home Beltran. 3-0 Mets.

Dave Williams then proceeded to hand the Cardinals two runs back in the fifth. After giving up a single to Aaron Miles, he gave up a long shot into the Cardinals bullpen to… wait for it… Gary Bennett. The Redbirds’ back up catcher was near the Mendoza line with one homer before that shot. It’s never easy is it?

Unless Jason Marquis is pitching.

This time, after a LoDuca infield single, Carlos Delgado proved his worth to Pat’s fantasy team and crushed a Marquis pitch past the Mets’ bullpen in rightfield. 450 feet was the estimated distance. The power is back. Whatever was affecting Delgado from May- July seems to be gone now and he’s smoking the ball again. If he’s on his game, the Mets are going to have the most formidable 3-5 in the NL.

We head to seventh, when the game was won/lost, depending on which team you’re talking about. After Aaron Miles singled again against Williams, Scott Spiezio, the most useless player in baseball last year, doubled. That put runners on second and third with one out. It also brought the soft tossing lefty’s night to an end as Willie Randolph went to Roberto Hernandez. Ron Belliard was up, So Taguchi was in the on deck circle and Pujols was in the hole. Lefty Pedro Feliciano was up in the pen, as Pat correctly pointed out, for Jim Edmonds and Chris Duncan, neither of whom were in the starting lineup. That had to be it, since the Cards didn’t have a lefty in the lineup.

Since I’m well aware of Tony LaRussa’s love affair with guys who shouldn’t be starting yet are, I responded with:

“HOW CAN YOU PINCH HIT FOR SO TAGUCHI???” (Yes, I mockingly yelled it)

Well Hernandez got Belliard on a foul pop out and thus denied him eventual entry into the Thug Mansion. That brought up the key spot in the game. That chap Albert was in the on deck circle as the potential go ahead run. He had seven RBI just two nights ago. You want someone who will keep the inning alive. You want your best up. Thus, Edmonds was getting his batting helmet right? Duncan had to be listening to his daddy about the ins and outs of Roberto Hernandez’s motion.

Nope. LaRussa apparently agrees the idea it is impossible to pinch hit for So Taguchi… a 37 year old defensive outfielder. Brilliant managing again Tony.

Hernandez got Taguchi on strikes. Pujols would lead off the next inning, a threat to give the Cardinals nothing but one run when they were down by three. And finally in a twist of ridiculous irony, what does LaRussa do?

He then immediately double switches Taguchi out of the game for Spezio!

You can’t make this stuff up. You just can’t.

I was all looking forward to making a lot of jokes about “Enter Sandman” when Billy Wagner would come into the game in the ninth, except it never happened. When the Mets scored a run in the 8th, it made it a four run game, so Randolph decided against using Wagner. Instead we got Guillermo Mota, who looks a lot like disgraced former Baseball Tonight analyst Harold Reynolds. At least I think he does.

Mota got the first two Cardinals out. That brought up Chris Duncan as the pinch hitter, a full two innings too late. Maybe Tony was hoping for a do-over or something. Well Mota struck him out to end it. To quote Matt Vasgersian in MLB ’06: The Show:

“St. Louis; Good Night.”

Up next come the Phillies, who just might knock the Cardinals out of the postseason if the Redbirds aren’t careful. The resurgent Phils are just 1.0 back of the Reds for the Wild Card and just 2.5 back of St. Louis should Cincinnati take the NL Central. Tony LaRussa better be careful, if he keeps handing games away by pitching an ineffective Mark Mulder and Jason Marquis along with putting up So Taguchi in big spots, the Cards might not gain admittance to the Show come October. Thankfully, the Mets look to be pretty much there, and that is half the battle.

And so, no pun intended, I leave you with this, the biggest thing I learned Thursday night:

“How can you pinch hit for So Taguchi?”

“You don’t, unless you’re actually trying to win a ball game.”

A Team of Cartoonish Proportions

2006-08-24T01:13:00.000-04:00

My all-time favorite Simpsons episode is Homer at the Bat, mostly because it combines two of my loves, baseball and the Simpsons. Oh, and Ken Griffey, Jr. is in it. Today, I came to a somewhat-painful realization. The 2006 baseball season may, for all intents and purposes, be over. Thanks to an ever-expanding payroll (and a set of rules which allow for unlimited spending), Brian Cashman has assembled the most fearsome lineup I've ever seen outside of the Springfield Nuclear Plant. If Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield make it back into the lineup by the start of the post-season, the Yankees can run out this lineup every single day (stats through games of 8/22):

CF - Damon: .298/.369/.512/.881
SS - Jeter: .336/.413/.470/.883
RF - Abreu: .301/.441.459/.900
1B - Giambi: .262/.419/.602/1.020
3B - Rodriguez: .287/.389/.506/.895
DH - Sheffield (05): .291/.379/.512/.891
LF - Matsui (05): .305/.367/.496/.863
C - Posada: .270/.368/.463/.831
2B - Cano: .326/.355/.479/.834

Yes, that's right, a lineup where every hitter has an OPS above .831. There are only 32 hitters in the American league with an OPS over .831. It's a team that will not only hit the ball, and hit it hard, but a lineup that will make pitchers work. Even some of the best offensive teams of recent memory (1995 Indians, 1996 Mariners, 1998 Yankees, 2004 Red Sox) had at least one, if not more, hole in their lineup (Tony Pena/Omar Vizquel, Russ Davis, Chad Curtis, Pokey Reese/Doug Mientkeiwicz/Gabe Kapler). This Yankee team, on the other hand, has none.

But wait, you'll say, Matsui and Sheffield are on the DL. True. But Matsui should be back in a few weeks, giving him plenty of time to get in shape for the postseason. Granted, Sheffield is a bit further away. But even if he doesn't make it back, Melky Cabrera is hitting .287/.361/.412/.774. Not staggering, sure. But a .774 OPS is still above average, and while he may not be as good as Sheffield, he's still far from a "hole" in the lineup.

Talking this over with the unrepentant Yankee-hater Ben, he mentioned that he thought the Mets lineup was nearly as good. While the Mets lineup is very strong, you can see it's nowhere near the level of the Yankees:

SS - Reyes: .290/.346/.477/.823
C - Lo Duca: .311/.352/.415/.767
CF - Beltran: .288/.388/.628/1.016
1B - Delgado: .258/.356/.536/.891
3B - Wright: .299/.373/.522/.895
2B – Valentin: .285/.338/.497/.834
RF – Green: .283/.349/.429/.778
LF – Floyd: .245/.330/.416/.746

Sure, Carlos Beltran is having a monster season, and Reyes, Wright, and Delgado are tough outs. Hell, Jose Valentin is having a totally unexpected resurgance. But still, there are three guys in the lineup who have significantly lower OPS numbers than anyone in the Yankees lineup.

But the Yankees have been stacked in previous years and haven't won the World Series, you say. Well, that might be true. But first of all, they came damn close in 2003 and 2004. Second of all, neither team had an offense nearly as good as this one. Ok, fine, you might say. Still, all it takes is good pitching, and you can beat the Yankees, especially in a short series. I'll give you that Johan Santana and a healthy Francisco Liriano is not the first-round matchup the Yankees are hoping for. But first Liriano would have to get back off the DL (well, first the Twins would have to make the playoffs). An Athletics team with Dan Haren, Barry Zito, and a healthy Rich Harden would also perhaps cause problems, except Harden is an even bigger question mark than Liriano and the Yankees have owned Zito. Plus, there's no guarantee that Oakland could generate any offense, even against a fairly non-descript Yankee pitching staff.

Ah, the pitching: it's what wins you games in October (or so the conventional wisdom goes). Well, The Yankees may not have a great staff. They might not even have a good one. But it should be more than enough to get them their 27th title. Mike Mussina is still quite effective, Chien Ming Wang is a good starter no matter what Ben thinks, and Randy Johnson has pitched better in the last month. Plus, Mariano Rivera is still the best reliever in baseball history (especially once the postseason rolls around) and while the rest of the pen is nothing special, it's good enough.

Teams like Boston and Chicago (AL) will be unable to overcome their putrid pitching to make a real run at the World Series, but the lineup the Yankees have assembled is too powerful, too patient, and too deep to come up short. Sure, anything can happen: injuries, slumps, trips to the Springfield Mystery Spot. But much like Mr. Burns' team of ringers, the 2006 Yankees are a team that can not lose.

Trading Day

2006-08-23T03:38:00.000-04:00

I noticed quite a few deals went down today across the sports world and since I’ve been writing about nothing but baseball recently, it was a good opportunity to change gears. Well somewhat anyway, there’s plenty of baseball here too. But the NFL and NBA find their way into this column. So to recap the deals:

The Mets acquired OF Shawn Green from the Diamondbacks for LHP Evan MacLane.

The Phillies acquired IF Jose Hernandez from the Pirates for cash.

In the NBA, the Pacers acquired F Al Harrington and C John Edwards from the Atlanta Hawks for a 1st round pick.

In the NFL, Falcons, Broncos and Redskins made a three way swap. The Broncos sent WR Ashlie Lelie to the Falcons, who sent HB TJ Duckett to the Skins, who sent a third round pick to the Broncos.

Got all that? I neglected to mention a swap Green Bay did with Cleveland for two inconsequential players who will probably never see the field in any meaningful action this year.

Of course at Sportszilla, we’re not about just listing trades. If we post it, we’re going to analyze it. So fasten your seatbelts as we jump across sports to get to the nitty gritty, emphasis on “gritty.” (More on that later). And since I’m writing this, you know I have to begin with the Mets. Sorry non Mets fans, if you’re not interested, just skip past and check out the other deals. To be fair, it was the biggest baseball trade of the day…

New York Mets received Shawn Green and cash from the Arizona Diamondbacks for LHP Evan MacLane.

The Mets get an upgrade from Lastings Milledge in Green, but with splits of .283/.348/.429/.777 in a hitter’s park in Arizona, it isn’t as if the Mets just added a difference maker’s bat. Green represents an average outfielder at this point. Then again, the Mets really don’t need much more than that; they’ve already got three top flight offensive players in their lineup. And at six million next year Green isn’t a bad player to have, especially since Cliff Floyd will likely be allowed to walk in free agency.

The D’Backs get salary relief. They seemed determined to dump Green, and in exchange for picking up half the remaining contract, get a mediocre prospect in MacLane. If the 23 year old lefty couldn’t find his way into the Mets rotation this year, he likely never would. He had a 3.86 ERA in 121.1 IP at AAA with a 67/35 K/BB ratio. Despite a decent ERA, he currently he stands behind Brian Bannister, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, Phillip Humber and probably even Aaron Heilman on the Mets rotation depth chart. So he was expendable. But in Arizona, where the pitching after Brandon Webb is a giant question mark, he could be useful.

Phillies get IF Jose Hernandez from the Pirates for cash

Jose Hernandez has two claims to fame in my book. First, he would have easily shattered the single season strikeout record with the Brewers in 2002 if not for the fact he was essentially benched the last three weeks of the season to prevent that from happening. Secondly, he was the player the Pirates got back for Arimas Ramirez and Kenny Lofton. Great trade, eh?

This season 37 year old Hernandez has splits of .267/.328/.350/.678. At third base. Brilliant.

But it gets better. He’s actually an upgrade over Abraham Nunez, the Phillies current place holder there has splits of .208/.267/.268/.535. That’s in a hitter’s park… at third base. Just in comparison, last year my favorite whipping boy was Cristian Guzman of the Nationals. He managed splits of .219/.260/.314/.574… in the most extreme pitcher’s park in baseball… at shortstop.

To sum up, the Phillies have been starting possibly the worst regular baseball has seen in some time at third base, an offensive position. So yeah, this is one of those rare, rare times where picking up a 37 year old corner infielder with a .678 OPS is actually a good move.

As a side note, ESPN lists Nunez as “Abraham O. Nunez.” I’ll leave you to make as many jokes about that middle initial as you see fit.

The Pacers pick up F Al Harrington and C John Edwards from the Atlanta Hawks in exchange for a 2007 1st round draft pick

I guess the Pacers figure they’ll be out of the lottery now. Not sure how this makes them that much better. Harrington is a solid player; 18.6 points last year and 6.9 rebounds per game. I will not make a political joke here about Mr. Edwards… or a joke about talking to dead people… or even a joke about the religious history of this country (for all you history majors out there).

Maybe I’m missing something here, and since Larry Bird is considered to be an excellent general manager, it’s certainly possible. But how can you give up a first rounder when your team could easily miss the playoffs this year considering you’re overhauling the whole roster. And again, Harrington is a solid player, but worth a first round pick? I mean he averaged less points per game than Wally Szczerbiak, Ricky Davis and put up just .4 points per game more than the man he replaces, Peja Stojakovic. Would you trade a first for any of those players?

Good move for the Hawks meanwhile. They’re whole team is made up of small forwards, so to get an extra first rounder for one of them will help down the road.

Falcons get Ashlie Lelie, Redskins get TJ Duckett, Broncos get a 2007 3rd round pick from Redskins

Peerless Price didn’t work out so now the Falcons will try again with a talented speed wideout who’s had limited success in the NFL. This time they gave up less, as Duckett is a part time player. If Lelie pans out he’ll have far more of an effect on the team than Duckett ever could. Now will Michael Vick be able to get him the ball?

Guess Clinton Portis’ injury is serious. That’s the only reason I can see the Skins for picking up Duckett for a third round pick, a pretty steep price in today’s NFL. If Portis is coming back soon, then this is a waste, since part time backs aren’t that hard to find. Either way, this isn’t a good sign for the Skins.

With Javon Walker and Rod Smith, there was no need to keep the disgruntled Lelie around anymore in Denver. He never panned out to his first round billing, but a third round pick at this stage isn’t a terrible haul for the Broncos.

By the way, to the Skins have some sort of agreement with Denver that they must find a way to ship a draft pick to them every year? Actually, I think they also have one with the Jets as well, since I believe they gave their 2007 second rounder up to move up in that round this year.

So that’s the trade round up. But I’ll leave you with a few more passing thoughts on a some miscellaneous subjects:

-NL MVP voting- Pujols 7, Beltran 2:

Seven is the total number of RBI phat Albert had tonight against John Maine, all coming on the strength of a three run homer in the fourth and a grand slam one inning later. The problem? It’s the Cardinals’ general one in a nutshell.

Staked to a 7-1 lead, Jeff Weaver promptly gave four back in the bottom of the inning , surrendering a grand slam to Carlos Delgado. (His 400th career hr) Then after the Mets scored a run in the sixth, Carlos Beltran hit a two run, game winning homer of closer Jason Isringhausen in the ninth to seal the comeback victory.

When Chris Carpenter isn’t pitching Albert Pujols is the Cardinals lone weapon. Carlos Beltran is a big one for the Mets, but there are plenty of guys to pick him up if he has problems early on. If Pujols didn’t hit those bombs off Maine, the Cardinals likely lose big. That isn’t to say Beltran isn’t deserving of the award, but as of right now, I’d give it to Pujols.

-DFA'd Diaz Likely Done

Alliteration is fun. Anyway, Mini Manny aien’t that no more. Since a decent ’05 campaign where he posted a .795 OPS in 280 ABs, Diaz has fallen off the map. This year at AAA his line was .224/.276/.330/.606. For a corner outfielder. That’s just horrendous. When Michael Tucker got the recall over Diaz after Cliff Floyd’s recent DL stint, the writing was on the wall.

Still just 24, Diaz deserves a shot to play with someone. A change of scenery could help. Why wouldn’t someone like the Pirates or Royals roll the dice with him? It would be relatively shocking if he made it through waivers. In all likelihood, his days as a Met are done.

-Jets Set the Bar- Low

Gang Green picked up Niners half back Kevan Barlow this week in exchange for a mid round draft pick. Why? I guess the Jets are banking on a change of scenery and a better offensive team (no matter how bad the Jets look the Niners are much worse) will help Barlow resemble the guy who averaged 5.1 YPC in 2003. Still the Jets were better off gambling on one of their young guys, or just waiting until next year. I mean it’s not like this team is going to be contending for anything this season.

It's also looking more and more certain Curtis Martin's playing days are over. And that's a disappointment, considering how he went out.

-Judging “Heart”

I promised you "gritty" and I deliver. It's link time. Clark Judge apparently thinks the Vikings are very smart for replacing the extremely talented Daunte Culpepper for a “proven winner” in Brad Johnson. You know, akin to Tom Brady. Don’t laugh people: I’m dead serious. Just click the link and look at the title.

Apparently we’re all wrong. Talent doesn’t win championships. It’s scrappiness, grit and heart. Give me Brad Johnson, Ed McCaffery, David Eckstein, Brian Scalabrine and Darren Erstad and dammit, I’ll win you a World Series, Super Bowl, Stanley Cup and NBA Championship… all in the same year. And forget the World Cup, they’d dominate over teams like Brazil and Argentina! Because we all know white “heart” triumphs over minority “talent”.

Anyone rolls their eyes, try to remember the last minority athlete who ever got identified as “scrappy and/or gritty.” Also remember this:

You can’t spell “scrappy” without, well, everything after the “s”.

-Fight Night: Toronto

Speaking of scraps, who’s going to the be next Blue Jay to get into it with skipper John Gibbons? Vernon Wells? Lyle Overbay? Troy Glaus? Maybe BJ Ryan. But really there’s only one guy I want to see have it out with the literally embattled manager.

Doc Halladay. I can see the headlines now: Showdown at the OK Corral. Bring your own six shooter John; I hear Doc fires those pellets with pinpoint accuracy.

That’s two historical references in one column. Good sign if you’re writing a paper, bad for a sports site. So on that note, I think it’s time to end it for now. Until next time:

May the Abraham Nunez/Jose Hernandez platoon produce a .600 OPS at 3rd base… in a hitter’s park.

Now if they only had hustle and grit, those Phillies would be alright.

Uber Mashing

2006-08-22T01:18:00.000-04:00

People are seeing red in Boston these days, but not in a good way.

Not since 2004 has there been an embarrassment as complete as the thorough beat down the Yankees put on the Red Sox this weekend, sweeping a five game set. The Red Sox imploded in just about everyway possible and going out with a whimper as their only consistent player in this series, Manny Ramirez, left Monday’s 2-1 loss in the fifth inning with an injury.

In response to this, and the inevitable questions and criticisms which will be hurled his way, Red Sox G.M. Theo Epstein said he cannot create an “uber” team every year and that the Sox must also look towards the future rather than focus squarely on the present. It was no doubt a shot at the Yankees’ payroll, and while it was said not to be an excuse, of course it is.

But does that make it any less legitimate? Well that warrants further review.

Even I, who made light of the fact the Sox have the second highest payroll in baseball on Friday, have to realize that the difference between the Yankees ($198,662,180) and Boston ($120,100,524) is 78 million dollars. That roughly equates to the difference between the Red Sox and Colorado Rockies($40,791,000), who have the fourth lowest payroll in baseball. The Sox and Kansas City Royals ($47,294,000) are actually closer payroll wise than the Sox and the Yankees. If Kansas City cried foul with the current economics of the game, we’d all agree with them. So if the Sox are actually further behind the Yankees than the Royals are to them, then is Epstein wrong in using that as an excuse?

Joseph Pawlikowski from the Sporting Brews posed a fair question to me in the comments to Free Baseball III on the matter;

…For the past few years, the argument has been that money can't buy championships. The Yankees have spent upwards of $200 million, and it hasn't won them anything past the ALCS. And people take great joy in that.

But now that they're poised for a World Series, everyone is crying foul about payroll, saying that the Yankees are buying a championship.

So which is it?…

My response was basically that the Yankees payroll doesn’t guarantee victory. In fact nothing can guarantee that in a short series, other than one team forfeiting. But it gives them a large advantage because that payroll allows them into the postseason every year. But I realize that explanation isn’t really enough. Teams can spend more than everyone else and still stink right?

Well here’s where the Yankees beat everyone, including the Red Sox. They spent so much it is actually near impossible for them to fail in reaching the postseason. Look at this season for example.

The Yankees lose Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield to injury. Two 100 RBI plus guys, gone. What are the Yankees to do? Well they play guys like Melky Cabrera and Bernie Williams, which is fine. But they still have four top five players (at their position) in their lineup. A-Rod having a down year? No problem. Jeter, Damon, Giambi and even Posada can pick him up. Randy Johnson getting real old, real fast? Those offensive juggernauts will score five and a half runs a game for him. Finally, pretty much equal in run differential to the offensive heavy Sox and Blue Jays($71,915,000)? Go out and buy another bat, and get the other team so desperate to dump salary, they throw in an arm to help your beleaguered staff as well.

Look for a moment at the A’s.($62,332,054) Eric Chavez is hurt and as a result, having a down year. Bobby Crosby is struggling, as is Mark Ellis. They’ve gotten plus production from Nick Swisher and Frank Thomas, but that’s not enough to overcome their losses offensively, so they struggle on that end. Mind you, they still have 71 wins, but a large part of that is because of a ridiculous domination of the Mariners which defies conventional logic.

Back to the Red Sox. When they lost Matt Clement and Tim Wakefield to injury, what were they to do? Trade for someone? That was likely impossible without destroying their farm system, which of course was already ravaged by the acquisition of Josh Beckett. Or, do as the Yankees do; acquire a salary dump. That’s fine if you’ve got payroll to burn. But with the David Ortiz extension pushing an already stretched budget, who’s the say the Sox can afford it? Not Epstein.

Now the Sox are far from blameless. They gambled on making Jonathan Papelbon the closer, figuring their rotation was deep enough. They were wrong. A reliever would have been much easier to acquire than a starter, and the Sox would likely look much better with Papelbon in the rotation and say, Bob Wickman closing things out in the ninth. They traded for Beckett, who has gotten bombed like no other but these things happen. Yankee fans will remember the Jeff Weaver disaster fondly, or rather, not fondly at all.

But don’t forget, the Yankees’ pitching isn’t why they’re winning. The Sox hit Chien Ming Wang Friday afternoon, pounded Sidney Ponson Friday night and Johnson Saturday. They hit Mike Mussina before he departed with an injury Sunday night, and only struggled for offense Monday, when they didn’t have Ramirez in the lineup for half the game. The Sox offense however, is just three or so men deep; Ramirez, Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis. Mark Loretta’s a nice player, but a table setter, not a run producer. Eric Hinske is extremely streaky (and has just arrived). Coco Crisp is overrated.

If the Sox had an equivalent payroll to the Yankees and were able to acquire Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle, would things have been different? Furthermore if the Sox could afford to pay Johnny Damon upwards of 14 million when he’s slowed down in center and can’t run the bases anymore in three years, would things be the same as they are now? Those are three players who might have been Red Sox if all things were equal. But they’re not.

The only team, on paper, which has a lineup comparably as deep as the Yankees’ (but not as good), is the Mets. ($100,901,805) But the Amazins’ lucked out; they have two offensive stars making the major league minimum this year, in addition to guys like Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, and when healthy, Cliff Floyd. That allows them to afford the likes of Billy Wagner and Delgado, or even Pedro Martinez and Beltran from the off season two years ago.

If Jose Reyes and David Wright were making over 10 million each, at least one and likely two of those aforementioned hired guns wouldn’t be here now. And you could forget any talk about Barry Zito in the upcoming off season.

And again, the Mets probably could have had Abreu if they had eaten his salary for next year. But that would have hindered their plans to get a pitcher this winter, so they’ll have to live or die with Lastings Milledge/ Endy Chavez in right field this year.

And so we come back to the Red Sox and Theo Epstein once more. Does his argument against the “uber” team seem like sour grapes now? Of course. Does it seem hypocritical? Yep. But is he wrong? Again, remember this:

The difference between the Yankees and Red Sox right now, according to ESPN.com- $78,561,656

The difference between the Red Sox and the Royals right now, according to ESPN.com- $72,806,524

So, you tell me.

Oliver Twist

2006-08-20T05:45:00.000-04:00

Tonight at AAA Norfolk, 25 year old lefty Oliver Perez posted a line of:

7 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 11 K, 0 ER, 94 pitches, 59 strikes.

Why is this important? Because of the news breaking late Saturday night/early Sunday morning: ESPN reports Tom Glavine has an unknown ailment in his shoulder which is causing numbness in his pitching hand. What this injury will do to the lefty’s season is unknown at this point because they’re not quite sure what he has.

In the short term, Brian Bannister should be recalled once his rehab stint is finished this week. In the long term, especially if Pedro Martinez is out for any length of time, the call may go to Perez, especially after putting together back to back solid performances for Norfolk.

So to Perez, Bannister, Orlando Hernandez, Steve Trachsel and John Maine; the fight for a spot in the postseason might have just become a bit more wide open. And for the Mets, their chances for the World Series just grew a bit murkier as well.

Out of those candidates, none look all that appealing. But there’s no question the one with the highest upside is Perez. With two encouraging starts underneath his belt, the Mets would be wise to give him a look, if not now then in September. (They could use Glavine’s roster spot to stick him on the postseason roster if Glavine is out for the year). It’s a long shot, but wouldn’t it be quite a twist if that Perez, who by most accounts was acquired just to be traded for Scott Linebrink before that deal fell through, became the guy who saved the Mets rotation?

Stranger things have happened.

Free Baseball III: Friday Night Sights

2006-08-19T02:29:00.000-04:00

Author’s note: To any Yankee fans, you might want to disregard parts of this, which will seem like a long winded rant on them. It’s not all about them, but large chunks of it are. I suppose you can just take issue with me at the end, but again, you have been warned….

As usual, it’s Friday night and I’m catching up the baseball scoreboard instead of going out. Not that I have anywhere to go. Long Island is a dull place, best suited for people with kids to look after. Since that’s not me, I’m pretty much bored silly out here. So what else is there to do but write, especially after I’ve already played three games of MLB 06’?

Up next are the some observations from looking at the scoreboard tonight. Naturally since I’m in New York, it’s Yankees/Red Sox first.

Game 1: Yankees 12- Red Sox 4
Game 2- Yankees 14- Red Sox 11

-It’s hard to call a team three and a half back with over a month to go done, but mark it down: Boston is toast. They cannot pitch and no help is on the way. While I do believe Josh Beckett will turn it around, I have far less faith in Jon Lester. Tim Wakefield is a question mark due to injury, Matt Clement has to deal with injuries and ineffectiveness while David Wells is old. Real old. I’m not a believer in momentum, but the Sox just got swept in a double header where Chien Ming Wang was giving up flyballs like nobody’s business and Sidney Ponson was the starter in Game 2. Why? Because somehow they managed to find starters worse than that, something not even the Orioles and Devil Rays could do. Boston, you need pitching to compete. But none’s available anymore. You are done.

This, by the way, is why Jonathan Papelbon is infinitely more useful as a starter. He didn’t pitch in either game of this double header. Why? Because he’s reliant on his team to get him a lead to protect and they couldn’t do that. If Papelbon were in the rotation, then he’d be guaranteed to see the Yankees in this series in a meaningful situation. He probably will see the Bombers everntually, but there’s no guarantee it’s in a save situation, where he’s actually valuable. He’s the Sox best answer to their pitching woes. Unfortunately, it’s way too late in the season to stretch him out.

Oh and finally, since this series is everywhere, maybe now people can realize that while David Ortiz is an excellent player, he’s no Manny Ramirez.

-Meanwhile, the Yankee offense rocks. It’s the best group money can buy and certainly weeds the mediocre pitchers from the good quickly. How on earth do you stop Damon/ Jeter/ Abreu/ A-Rod/ Giambi/ Posada and *grimace* Cano? The lowest OPS in that bunch belongs to Posada at .822. Overall, the lowest one in their everyday lineup is either Bernie Williams at .747 or Craig Wilson at .745. Their worst hitters are essentially OPSing .750.

Of course I have to do this because it really is “bought” in everyway imaginable:

Damon 13 mil
Jeter 20.6 mil
A-Rod 25.68 mil
Abreu 13.6 mil
Giambi 20.42 mil
Posada 12 mil

That equals 105.3 million in those hitters alone. That doesn’t include Sheffield and Matsui, who are both making well over ten million.

For the record, there is one team in all of baseball with an entire payroll more than that; the Red Sox. (So don’t feel too bad for them) But six ninths of the Yankees’ lineup makes more than an entire Mets team that has to pay Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, Billy Wagner and Tom Glavine! Three guys on that Yankees’ list make more individually than the Marlins entire team does.

Yankee fans don’t want to hear it and it might sound like sour grapes, but this is a disgrace. There is no other sport where one team has this much of an advantage, with the possible exception of Chelsea in the EPL. The Yankees are not well run in terms of evaluating players, they just buy their championships. By the way, I know it’s been said, but the Yankees lineup with those guys minus Abreu was 91.7 million, which is still more than 20 teams’ entire payroll. Seriously, the only people who thought the Yankees were doing it with feel goods players like Melky Cabrera and Andy Phillips are people who live in New York.

Anyway Yankee fans, enjoy it. The division is yours. While the rest of us might complain about that astronomical payroll, that’s not your concern. Just don’t wonder why everyone is cheering for the Yankees go down in the postseason.

Game 1: Royals 7- A’s 1
Game 2: Royals 5- A’s 3

-There’s a reason the AL West doesn’t have a clear favorite; because none of the teams are very good. The A’s just got swept in a doubleheader by the Royals… the freaking Royals! Now I understand it was Joe Blanton and Esteban Loiaza, which is scraping the bottom of the barrel for Oakland, but I mean come on. It’s the Royals! And the worst part for the A’s is that both Justin Duchsherer and Huston Street gave it up in game two. They’ll still probably win the West because the rest of the teams stink. And of course they’re the team no one wants to face in the first round because it’s entirely possible Barry Zito and Danny Haren shut you down in games one and two putting you behind the eight ball.

Of course if you beat one of them, you’re basically home free.

Still the Mariners have to be wondering what things would be like if they could actually win a game against Oakland. Aw heck, let’s check up on them while we’re at it.

Angels 3- Mariners 0

-Next year some fantasy owner is going to take Jered Weaver in the first six rounds of his/her draft and end up shocked when he posts a 4.50 ERA. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a solid young pitcher. But he’s got a GB/FB ratio of .64 and has surrendered just four homers in 78.1 IP. That’s a rate of .45/9. Can you say “utterly unsustainable?”

Meanwhile his opponent tonight was young Felix Hernandez, who lost again. He’s got a 4.50 ERA. But don’t sell yet. He’s going to be a great one. I’d take him high in my fantasy draft next year, but Zach has him. It’s a keeper league and he’s not letting him go. Why is the King destined for better things than Weaver? Because his K/9 is better (8.27/9 vs. 7.47) and while his K/BB is less (2.62 to 3.25) Hernandez’s GB/FB ratio is 2.25 meaning he gives up far less fly balls. And ground balls don’t leave the yard. Yet despite that, his homer rate is over twice as high as Weaver’s at 1.09.

I don’t think they would, but if I were a general manager I would call the Mariners and see what they wanted for the kid. Maybe they’d be down on him after a “so-so” season. I’d pretty much do it for anyone on my roster, so long as they were not producing at the big league level under the age of 25. (Makes it rather moot otherwise) It’s a long shot, but this is a team that employed Carl Everett for over half the baseball season.

Giants 7- Dodgers 3

-Speaking of terrible western divisions, the National League aien’t too pretty out there either. The Dodgers lose game one to the resurgent Giants (winners of five straight), who last week were falling apart at the seams. Two weeks ago, that was the Dodgers collapsing. Everyone in the NL West is a series of hot and cold streaks. The Phillies would fit in perfectly there. Some people call it exciting baseball. I call it mediocrity, AKA, the bottom rung of playoff teams in the NBA’s Eastern Conference.

I take that back. Similes like that are best saved for Bill Simmons, and I model myself on trying to avoid being like him.

Brewers 3- Astros 2

-I could get into Brad Lidge, but I won’t. There’s been enough negativity around here. So instead I’ll just say this:

Bill Hall- 27 homers. Who saw that one coming? He could be the next Alfonso Soriano.

Twins 7- Chi Sox 3

-If you want a feel good story, look up the Minnesota Twins. They were left for dead at the start of June and rallied behind Francisco Liriano to shoot up into playoff contention. Then when Liriano went down to injury, many, myself included, again figured they were toast. And yet it’s the 19th of August and the Twinkies are 71-50 and just one game back of the Chi Sox for the Wild Card lead.

And for all those people who are calling for Derek Jeter to be MVP (sorry, but I know that’s going to be argued for after his bases clearing double in the second game of that doubleheader), please check out Joe Mauer. The Twins catcher has an OPS of .954. Jeter has a mark of .887. (heading into tonight) Mauer is one of the best defensive catchers in the game. Jeter at short is average at best. Oh and Mauer’s entire team’s payroll is 63.81 million. Not that either one should be MVP but please, tell me who’s more valuable to his team?

-The Chi Sox are like the Red Sox, all hitting, no pitching. They also have their best arm sitting in the pen, Brandon McCarthy, but he’s being blocked by something I like to call “veteran obstinace.”

That’s when a manager refuses to give a young player a chance because the veteran is more experienced. Never mind Mark Buehrle’s getting bombed on a routine basis, Freddie Garcia hasn’t had a good season since 2001 and four runs in six innings qualifies as a good start for Javier Vasquez these days. They’re veterans dammit so Ozzie Guillen believes in them more than Brandon McCarthy! “Hey Jon Garland never loses. So what if it’s because we score 6.55 runs a game for him? And who knows? If Javy Vasquez didn’t pitch so poorly, we’d never be able to motivate ourselves to score 8.13 runs per game for him!” Yep, got to stick with the proven guns Ozzie. Just disregard that these vets are pitching the Sox right out of the postseason.

Ah veteran obstinace, coming to a manager near you, very soon. (If it hasn’t already)

And of course I have to mention the Amazins:

Mets 6- Rockies 3

Steve Trachsel won his 12th game tonight. He surrendered 3 runs in seven innings, so this qualifies as a good start for him. (Even if he did allow an RBI single by the opposing pitcher) Meanwhile Byung Hyun Kim didn’t do anything to help his road totals- six runs allowed tonight. I know the Mets are pretty much assured a playoff spot, but you don’t feel safe until you’re actually in the postseason.

I also am a little disappointed the Mets have decided to use Dave Williams instead of Oliver Perez this Saturday. I know it’s one start, but part of me wonders what would have happened if Perez came up and threw six innings, allowing a pair of runs while striking out eight. Maybe he’d be the answer to the Mets’ rotation woes. At this point you just throw it all against the wall and see what sticks. What have you got to lose?

Well this concludes this random stream of consciousness for the evening. Hope you enjoyed this edition for “Free Baseball” with the next installment coming whenever one of us at Sportszilla gets too much time on their hands, which in my case, might be tomorrow.

For those that liked this, check out the precursors: Free Baseball and Free Baseball II: The Doubleheader.

Sportszilla's Premiership Preview

2006-08-19T02:00:00.000-04:00

The 2006-2007 Premiership season starts today. Chelsea will be trying to make it three championships in a row. Manchester United, Liverpool, and Arsenal will try to catch them. Reading, Sheffield United, and Watford have been promoted from the Championship while we bid adieu to West Brom, Birmingham City, and Sunderland.

Now instead of previewing each and every team, I thought I would just run through the major headlines of the offseason and point out some things out to keep an eye on.

Big Transfers
Michael Ballack to Chelsea
You can go ahead and say it’s not fair but just like the Yankees, Chelsea outspend everyone. Ballack’s contract was up at Bayern Munich and Chelsea brought him in with a big contract that pays him six figures a week (in British pounds). The midfielder will be expected to be a ball winner, make some nice passes, dribble, and score a few goals. Ballack is more than up to the task as he will pair up with Frank Lampard.

Andriy Shevchenko to Chelsea
Don’t worry, they had to pay AC Milan £30 million for his services. The one thing Mourinho had yet to get is a legitimate goalscorer. Serie A is considered to be a league that is predicated on defense. Shevchenko managed to score over 30 goals last season. I think Mourinho has got his man.

Michael Carrick to Manchester United
This was all about business for Tottenham Hotspur. They bought Carrick from West Ham for £2.5 million two years ago. They sold him to Manchester United for potentially £18 million. Carrick will be the best passer United have had since David Beckham. If he can stay healthy, he will be a force in United’s midfield.

Tomas Rosicky to Arsenal
American soccer fans will remember the goal he scored in the World Cup for the Czechs. Shadowed by Pavel Nedved on the international stage, Rosicky is a sensational playmaker who will look to supply Thierry Henry with plenty of assists. The Czech will replace Robert Pires who left for Spain.

Dimitar Berbatov to Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs are UEFA Cup bound this season and need some extra goalscoring punch to accompany Jermain Defoe and Robbie Keane. The Bulgarian hitman is just as good at scoring goals as he is getting his teammates involved. He had a terrific preseason and Spurs hope he can carry it into the season.

Dirk Kuyt to Liverpool
In a move that happened on Friday, Liverpool signed the Dutch striker from Feyenoord for £9 million. Rafael Benitez has had trouble finding a legitimate striker ever since he let Michael Owen go to Real Madrid. With Cisse and Morientes gone, it’s up to Kuyt and fellow newcomer Craig Bellamy to pick up the scoring burden.

Big Storylines
Glazer’s Got Company
Malcom Glazer and his family are not the only ones to own both an NFL team and a Premiership team. Cleveland Browns owner Randy Lerner bought the team from Doug Ellis. While Glazer’s takeover was considered rather unpopular with United fans, Lerner’s purchase of the team was celebrated. Ellis fell out of favor with Villa fans and any new owner who was going to show a commitment to winning would be welcomed. Lerner hopes to get that done.

Is Sir Alex on the Hotseat?
Manchester United has not won the Premiership since 2003. They didn’t make it out of the Champions League group stages last year. They only managed to win the Carling Cup last season and had to use the first choice lineup to do so. There are many who believe that Ferguson’s time is up and that he should have retired a few years ago. The Glazers could really make their stamp on the team if they do replace Sir Alex.

Arsenal’s New Home
Say goodbye to the crappy surrounding that was Highbury (I’ve been there, it’s wasn’t a very good stadium) and say hello to the 60,000 seat Emirates Stadium. Arsenal finally has a stadium that matches their stature as one of England’s best clubs but is it possible that the players will miss their cozy surroundings? We’ll see.

Still a Busy Transfer Market
This just in, defender Khalid Boulahrouz has just joined Chelsea from Hamburg. Expect some big names to move before the September 1 deadline. Ashley Cole has been held out of the Arsenal starting lineup in today’s match because many expect a move to Chelsea to be in the works. Defender William Gallas saw the team hand Michael Ballack his number 13 jersey and the signing of Boulahrouz might seal his exit. Manchester United still wants another central midfielder and the new name is Owen Hargreaves who is apparently eager to join United from Bayern Munich. However, the German champs lost Ballack in the offseason and want to hold on to him. That may mean that Villarreal’s Marcos Senna could be Old Trafford bound. And Arsenal winger Jose Antonio Reyes may still be heading to Real Madrid after he made it clear he wants to leave London for the Spanish capital.

The New Managers
Martin O’Neill (Aston Villa)
Before Ellis sold the team to Lerner, Villa hit the jackpot by securing the services of Martin O’Neill. He was away from the game last season tending to his wife. Before that, he was the man at Celtic, leading them to SPL titles. He is an excellent motivator and will look to rejuvenate an Aston Villa team that grew tired of David O’Leary. Take this into consideration when thinking about how good O’Neill is. He was the favorite a few years ago to be Sir Alex Ferguson’s heir at Manchester United.

Gareth Southgate (Middlesbrough)
It’s a classic case of club legend becoming the manager. Southgate was a great central defender for Boro but does he really know anything about managing? He will be given a massive learning curve. There is also going to be plenty of pressure on him when you consider who he is replacing. Steve McClaren left the Riverside to become the next England manager. And boy did he have a nice debut thrashing Greece 4-0. Maybe David Beckham’s England career is really over…

Iain Dowie (Charlton Athletic)
Alan Curbishley decided he couldn’t do much more with the small budget club and left. Iain Dowie inspired Crystal Palace and brought them up to the Premiership for two seasons before they got relegated. Charlton management hopes he can do the same thing with this club.

New Teams on the Block
Reading (Won the Championship)
It’s safe to say that Reading dominated the Championship last season. They won the title by 16 points and scored 99 goals as a team. The death sentence of many promoted teams is that they don’t score enough goals. The team doesn’t have a standout goalscorer so they will have to do it as a team. It should be noted that the past two Championship winners (Norwich and Sunderland) both went straight back down after one season. Americans Marcus Hahnemann and Bobby Convey will have a big say in Reading’s survival hopes.

Sheffield United (Finished 2nd in the Championship)
Neil Warnock’s side has gained a reputation of not being very easy to beat. Without much for a goalscoring force, that could mean plenty of 0-0 draws. They didn’t sign a legit scorer in the offseason and that could spell trouble for Blades.

Watford (Finished 3rd in the Championship and won the play-off
At the start of last season, many expected Watford to be in Division One this season. Instead, Adrian Boothroyd’s side finished third and beat Leeds United in the play-off to earn their ticket back to the Premiership. They have a forward in Marlon King who scored 22 goals last season helped Watford earn promotion. They will turn to him again. Young goalkeeper Ben Foster was Watford’s starter last season and is back this season. He is technically Manchester United property but was loaned out to the club last season in hopes of him getting some experience. He did and now will play in the Premiership.

Predictions
The Premiership
20. Sheffield United
19. Watford
18. Fulham
17. Reading
16. Wigan
15. Portsmouth
14. Charlton Athletic
13. Bolton
12. Manchester City
11. Newcastle United
10. Middlesbrough
9. West Ham United
8. Aston Villa
7. Blackburn
6. Everton
5. Arsenal
4. Tottenham
3. Liverpool
2. Manchester United
1. Chelsea

The F.A. Cup
Manchester United

The Carling Cup
West Ham United

And remember, if some of the big name players get a little tired toward the end of the season, it's because of the World Cup. They didn't get enough rest so fatigue will be a factor.

Atrocious Sports Writing at It’s Worst

2006-08-18T15:50:00.000-04:00

It’s rare here that I’ll actually take potshots at writers unless they really infuriate me. I mean I’ve written probably an average of 2-3 posts per week here at Sportszilla and the likes of Scott Miller only grave my keyboard when they really piss me off, which equates to about five or six times in the last four months.

But Bill Plaschke, you’ve taken it to a new level.

I’ve mentioned the LA sportswriters and their stupidity before, when I absolutely ripped the Dodgers a new one for firing Paul DePodesta. It was writers like Plaschke that got DePodesta canned, all because he traded away Paul LoDuca the “heart and soul of the Dodgers” for Brad Penny. Basically people hated DePodesta because he got a talented pitcher for a mediocre catcher who was a “good guy.” Well now Penny is the Dodgers best pitcher and the “good guy” LoDuca is sleeping around with 19 year old girls. How does that trade look now?

In any case, Plaschke hates guys who evaluate players by statistics and seems to have a love affair with old scouts as is apparent in this piece that was torn to shreds by the boys at Fire Joe Morgan. It is one of the WORST pieces of journalism I’ve ever read and I say that without hesitation. Scott Miller is my favorite writer to rip in these parts, but this is a million times worse than anything he could possibly throw out there. It’s a condescending piece of garbage that essentially says “You stats guys are all wrong because this old scout figured out Andre Either is a good player!” Also “Paul DePodesta will never be Ned Coletti because he was a YOUNG guy who didn’t listen to scouts!.” (Really, I think part of the problem for DePo was that he was so young.) I won’t critique the whole piece, since FJM did such an excellent job, but I’ll share with you in my opinion, the worst section.

He was on the phone, and it sounded as if he was crying.

"You're writing something about an old fella like me?" said Al LaMacchia.

He's 85, and he's been scouting for 51 years, and he can't believe anybody still cares.

I tell him I am writing the story because the Dodgers still care.

For the first time since Fred Claire was their last world championship general manager, the Dodgers are listening to their older scouts again.

They are reading reports scrawled in aging penmanship. They are evaluating players based on dusted-off instincts.

Ned Colletti's new administration is still using computers, but they also value guys who have no idea how to turn one on.

"I trust my eyes," LaMacchia said. "Been good enough so far."

Colletti trusted LaMacchia's recommendation at last year's winter meetings in Dallas, and the Dodgers are in first place in August, and that is no coincidence.

Okay where to start? Plaschke makes it seem like he’s this heroic reporter who’s telling the story of guy who the cruel world left behind. It’s so melodramatic and just plain, excuse my language, CRAP, that I actually want to vomit. Simpsons fans will remember an episode where Bart becomes a reporter and to show Lisa up, starts doing melodramatic “people” stories. How about this comparison?

“You're writing something about an old fella like me?” said Al LaMacchia.

He's 85, and he's been scouting for 51 years, and he can't believe anybody still cares.

I tell him I’m writing the story because the Dodgers still care.

And the Bart quote:

“Of forgotten veterans. Their guns are quiet now. Their helmets lost, or pawned. And yet here they are, making flags out of old clothes. Sure, they may not have the right number of stripes. And the colors are all wrong. And some purists will tell you the American flag doesn't contain the word "Jordache". But you know, if they run this up the flagpole, I'll salute.”

One is for comedic purposes, the other, someone got paid to write seriously. Disgusting, just disgusting.

But like I said, Plaschke’s true message comes through after, when he takes shots at modern baseball, guys who uses stats and computers. You know horrid statistics like “on base percentage” or “slugging percentage.” God forbid anyone should look at strikeouts per nine innings! The world is falling! Save the children… you know, if they actually believe in looking in player’s eyes and knowing from that if he can play the game.

The Dodgers are in first place because the NL West is complete garbage. If they were in any other division, they’d settling for the Wild Card. And what great deals has Coletti made outside of the Bradley deal? (and it’s far too early to tell if Either will be great.)

Let see, Jae Seo for Duaner Sanchez. Not a bad trade in fairness because Seo with an ERA in the low 4.00’s is cheap and serviceable and relievers can be found easily. Except he traded Seo for Mark Hendrickson, who is just awful. How about Ceasar Izturis for Maddux? I didn’t think it mattered, but Izturis is an overpaid middle infielder. Most G.M.s make that swap. Two months of Julio Lugo for Guzman? By all accounts that trade looks to be a bad one. He got Wilson Betemit from the Braves, but I could tell you that was a great trade for the Dodgers and I’m just 23! And get this, I know how to turn on a computer!

Oh no, I guess my opinion on Betemit is useless then.

He’ll never see this most likely, but Plaschke, you are a disgrace to sportswriters everywhere and young people who want to be sportswriters. Your stories are so cruddy my college journalism professors would have given you a “C”, if they were feeling generous. An average sports fan can tear this to shreds. And for a die hard like me, this isn’t even worth the paper I use to… well you know the rest.

Read the whole column if you’re in a mood to be aggravated. But I feel as though the FJM guys need to spend more time on this guy. Or maybe I’ll get around to creating a site entitled; “Fire Bill Plaschke Now.”

Emphasis on Now.

Finding the Saviors Down the Stretch

2006-08-18T02:56:00.000-04:00

As usual it’s the dog days of August and around Major League baseball the critique of nearly all the contenders is the same.

“They just don’t have enough starting pitching to make you feel comfortable.”

But now we’re past the July 31st deadline and the only guys getting through waivers are overpaid and not very good. So the top teams are going to have to do battle with what they have; meaning those hurlers are going to have to step up in a big way soon.

Now it’s one thing to say “a team needs to pitch better” but it’s never as simple as that. If it were, pitchers’ wouldn’t be worth their multi million dollar contracts and guys like Rick Peterson and Leo Mazzone would be out of jobs. So instead of going team by team and saying that that group needs to turn it on, this list identifies guys who have the track record or potential to step up and be the key performer down the stretch. Since we’re going alphabetically, we start in Boston.

(Note: All pro stats are from ESPN.com and minor league stats are from the Baseball Cube. )

Boston Red Sox: LHP Jon Lester

72.2 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 6.69 K/9, 1.50 K/BB, 1.07 GB/FB, .283 Opp BA

I know what you’re saying; wait, hasn’t Lester been a great find for the Red Sox? I thought he already was one of the things going well. Well yes and no. Yes he’s got six wins and a respectable ERA, but unless he improves soon, that’s not going to last.

The problem lies in the fact his K/BB ratio is just too low for a relative fly ball pitcher in the American league. Sure if you can get away with walking a ton if you’re Brandon Webb and induce nearly four times as many groundballs as fly balls. You’re going to get lots of double plays. But not if you’re giving up flies. So unless Lester improves on his strikeout to walk ratio, he’ll join the rest of the Sox pitchers not named Curt Schilling who are getting shelled nightly.

The good news is that his minor league numbers indicate he’ll at least get that K rate up. His career minor league strikeout rate 8.66 per nine heading into this season and he struck out 43 in 46.2 innings at AAA this year. Of course he also walked 25, which is why Red Sox fans should be hoping for an increase in his strikeouts rather than a decline in his walks. If he can do that, then he should be able to get away with an ERA around 4.00. And on the Red Sox, that’s going to be enough to keep them in just about every game they play.

Red Sox Redux: RHP Josh Beckett

152.1 IP, 5.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.52 K/BB, 1.10 GB/FB, .246 Opp BA

Okay, you want numbers that make no sense, see Mr. Beckett. Has he declined from last year? Sure, as his K/9 was 8.36 last year. But 7.44 is still solid and his K/BB is acceptable for a guy who’s basically a fly ball pitcher. What I didn’t list here is home runs allowed. Beckett has surrendered 31, that’s right 31. That’s more than he surrendered in the last two years (30 in 335.1 IP) combined! Translated that’s a rate of 1.84/9. He’s giving up almost two home runs a game.

There is no suitable explanation for this. Yes he’s moved from a fabulous NL pitcher’s park to a neutral AL park and his GB/FB has dropped from 1.25 to 1.10 but none of that is enough to see that much of an increase in home runs allowed. I’ve just got to believe Beckett has been about as unlucky as a major league pitcher can possibly be this year. Nothing else in his stat line warrants this type of an increase, so it’s got to be an anomaly.

My bet is that Beckett will turn it around. Such a rate, even this late in a season, by all rights should not be sustained by a pitcher as good as the 26 year old righty. If Lester can continue improve his K rates as well, the Red Sox could make a serious run at finally knocking the Yankees from their AL East perch. Of course, that all starts this weekend.

By the way, Beckett has surrendered just 8 of those 31 homers at Fenway, which is acceptable. Yet despite an OPS against of .633 at home, his ERA is still 4.13 there! Really, this is one case that makes you throw up your hands and say “what the #$*^”!

New York Mets: RHP John Maine

50.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.33 K/9, 2.93 K/BB, .92 GB/FB, .242 Opp BA

Until last month, the 25 year old Maine was nothing more than the “minor leaguer” acquired in the Kris Benson trade to many Mets fans. He had also been quickly forgotten about, seeing as many wrote the trade off as being a disaster after just one month of Jorge Julio. But given an opportunity by chance recently, Maine made the best of it, pitching a complete game shut out over the Houston Astros. Since then the numbers speak for themselves as he’s pitched himself into a permanent rotation spot. The question is, can keep this up long enough to make an impact for the Mets come October?

Maine’s K rate has been excellent so far and his minor league numbers suggest they’re no fluke. He averaged 9.56 K/9 in the minors, though I’m more inclined to look at his two AAA seasons where he averaged 7.90 and 7.78 strikeouts per nine. His home run rate so far is 1.25, which I think is a little high, though he is a fly ball pitcher. In the minors the highest rate he had was at AAA at .91/9, so his homers allowed should come down a little. His Opp BA has been solid and he hasn’t walked many which is why his ERA has survived such a high homer rate, but his WHIP will increase some.

The Mets don’t need John Maine to be an ace to get to the World Series. If he can be a solid #3, with an ERA in the mid to high 3.00’s, and then give them six innings allowing two or three runs in the playoffs, that should be good enough for the Mets to win his start. Considering the other options for game three involve the hit or miss Orlando Hernandez and the just plain awful Steve Trachsel, Maine is the best hope for the Mets in their quest to stabilize the rotation.

Philadelphia Phillies: LHP Cole Hamels

84.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.29 K/9, 3.00 K/BB, .90 GB/FB, .238 Opp BA

The mucho hyped Phillies pitching prospect struggled initially after his promotion to the bigs. Pre All Star Break, Hamels had worked 44.2 innings and while there was nothing wrong with his K rate (44 Ks), he walked far too many (24). As a fly ball pitcher, even with his stuff, striking out less than twice the numbers of batters you walk is a recipe for trouble.

But since the break, Hamels has been one of the best pitchers in the game. He’s thrown 39.1 innings and struck out a whopping 52. Even more impressive is the fact he’s walked just 8! That translates to an 11.90 K/9 and 6.50 K/BB. Like I said, one of the best in the game.

Hamels is just 22, and had just 42 innings of ball at any level above A ball before his promotion to Philadelphia this year. Another issue is fatigue; Hamels has never pitched more than 101 innings in any year, and that was back in 2003. But it’s hard not to like his stuff and his success to this point.

Brent Myers is a decent second starter. Jon Lieber at this point is probably a high end four. Cole Hamels can be an ace. He’ll need to be if the Phillies want to make the postseason.

San Diego Padres: RHP Jake Peavy

150.1 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.70 K/9, 3.52 K/BB, .94 GB/FB, .259 Opp BA

The Padres have survived this far because Chris Young has pitched beyond expectations. But for them to catch the Dodgers and make the playoffs they need the 25 year old Peavy to return to form. But from the looks of it, that isn’t far off.

Jake Peavy’s beenone of the best pitchers in the league peripherally and yet is the owner of a 4.55 ERA in a pitcher’s haven. For some reason Peavy’s surrendered 19 homers this year, one more than he gave up in 203 innings last year! Injuries could have been an excuse, if his K/9 wasn’t the best it’s ever been in his career. He’s walking more batters this year but a 3.52 strikeout to walk ratio is still excellent. Heck it’s better than what it was two years ago when he posted a 2.27 ERA. So like Beckett, figure that home rate will drop.

It looks like that the turnaround has started; he’s allowed nine runs in 33.1 innings over his last five starts. It may not be enough to get the Padres into the postseason as they’ll still need their offense to kick it into gear, but it all starts with Peavy. If he continues his improvement, then a division crown is possible. If he begins to struggle anew, the Padres can start looking ahead to 2007.

San Francisco Giants: RHP Matt Cain

136.0 IP, 4.70 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.47 K/9, 1.86 K/BB, .90 GB/FB, .236 Opp Ba

It’s a lot to ask a 21 year old rookie to be the backbone of your playoff drive, but behind Jason Schmidt, Cain is the most talented member of the Giants staff. Noah Lowry looked to be an emerging pitcher last year, but back injuries have stemmed his development, at least this season.

The problem with Cain so far is simple; walks. There’s nothing wrong with his K rate, Opp Ba or homer rate (.99). However, he’s the pitcher on this list I’m the least optimistic about in the short term. (Long term he’s the best talent outside of Jake Peavy. Yes even better than Hamels) Cain never has had good control in the minors; his career BB/9 was 3.74 with rates over 4.00 at AA and AAA. Power pitchers can turn it around and become studs, just look at Scott Kazmir. But consistency is hard to find.

Still, hot streaks are possible, so if Cain can start hitting the strike zone a bit more frequently, the Giants will be primed for a run of their own. And considering September is the time when divisional foes beat up on each other, they could make up plenty of ground in a short period of time.

St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Anthony Reyes

64.2 IP, 4.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.12 K/9, 1.63 K/BB, .72 GB/FB, .246 Opp Ba

While the Cardinals might boast one of the best starters in the game come postseason in Chris Carpenter, the rest of their rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Mark Mulder has continued his decline into mediocrity (and worse), Jeff Suppan isn’t any good and Jason Marquis has been the worst starter in the National League this year. Angels’ castaway and perennial disappointment Jeff Weaver isn’t the answer. With Adam Wainwright stuck in the pen, the burden of saving the Cardinals’ staff falls upon young Anthony Reyes.

Things haven’t gotten off to the greatest of starts so far for the 24 year old as his 4.73 ERA does suggest. ERA isn’t always the best indicator, but in Reyes’ case, it’s a fair assessment. He’s strike out rate is okay while he’s walking far too many. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher which has resulted in 12 Hrs.

Now it’s possible that Reyes continues to perform below average. But there is reason to believe he could turn it around. First of all even for an extreme flyball pitcher, his 1.67 Hr/9 rate is way too high. At AAA this year, his K rate was 8.24/9 while his K/BB was an exceptional 8.13! He posted a homer rate of 1.14 and a WHIP of .97. This isn’t to say his stats should translate exactly, but at the very least his control should improve. Combine that with a likely decrease in home runs surrendered and Reyes could become a solid pitcher very soon.

Right now Reyes still probably is the Cardinals second best starter, though not by much. If they have dreams of getting back to the World Series in St. Louis, Reyes needs to raise his game well above mediocrity of the rest of the Cardinals rotation.

(Update: The Cardinals signed Preston Wilson Friday and then proceeded to send Reyes down. This is is a move St.Louis will regret. Their pitching staff is atrocious and Reyes currently is at least as good as Suppan or Marquis. The fact is he could be better than them and at this point has nothing to gain from gettin AAA hitters out. Honestly, I'm not sure what the deal with Tony LaRussa's love affair with Jason Marquis is. Does Marquis have incriminating photos of him or something?)

So to fans of playoff teams, yes your rotation isn’t as deep as you want it to be. But help could be on the way. Will Josh Beckett find himself and become the pitcher that carried the Marlins to a WS crown in 2003? Could Matt Cain spark a Giants run akin to Jaret Wright with the Indians back in 1997?

Remember these names. These question marks now could be heroes in just a few short months.

(Note: Think I've missed someone? Feel I've shortchanged your favorite player? Let me know.)

Sportszilla's European Football Power Poll - August

2006-08-16T02:16:00.000-04:00

Each month, I will give you my ranking of the top ten teams in European football. I figure now would be the best time to give the first one. The German Bundesliga and French Ligue 1 are already underway and the English Premiership starts this weekend with the Italian Serie A and the Spanish Primera Liga just around the corner.

1. FC Barcelona (Primera Liga)
Won the Champions League and Primera Liga last season. Then, they buy Gudjohnsen, Zambrotta, and Thuram in the summer while only losing Larsson. And the last time we checked, Ronaldinho, Deco, Eto’o, and Messi are still there. All of this adds up to the boys from the Catalan capital making a strong run at defending both titles.

2. Chelsea (Premiership)
Jose Mourinho has only one obsession: Win the Champions League. To help with that, he buys Andriy Shevchenko from AC Milan and gets Michael Ballack on a free transfer. Ashley Cole may be on his way as well. How much is all of this costing Roman Abramovich? Don’t ask.

3. Inter Milan (Serie A)
No team benefited more from what happened to Juventus. Not only have they been named last year’s Serie A Champions but they also bought Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Patrick Vieira from the demoted club. They also acquired Hernan Crespo from Chelsea on a two year loan. All of these new arrivals have to motivate Adriano.

4. Real Madrid (Primera Liga)
It’s a new era in Madrid and with new president Ramon Calderon and manager Fabio Capello, came some new galacticos. Cannavaro and Emerson arrive from Juventus and Ruud van Nistelrooy signed from Manchester United. Jose Antonio Reyes could be signing from Arsenal before the August 31 deadline. Whether or not this team will have the necessary chemistry is of great debate but we do know that the fans will miss Zidane.

5. Manchester United (Premiership)
United enter the season with a massive chip on their shoulder. Only winning the Carling Cup and coming in second in the Premiership will not do for a club that has only known excellence since the Premiership formed. Losing van Nistelrooy’s goalscoring prowess hurts but Rooney and Saha can expect plenty of service from new midfielder Michael Carrick. Ballwinning midfielder Marcos Senna could join before the deadline.

6. Liverpool (Premiership)
Rafael Benitez has been tremendous since joining Liverpool in 2004. He shipped out the disappointing Cisse and replaced him with Craig Bellamy who has shown he can score in the Premiership. No matter how hard Chelsea try, Steven Gerrard and Xabi Alonso might be the best central midfield partnership in Europe.

7. Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
Germany’s defending champions are back with a new forward in the form of Lukas Podolski who made a name for himself during the World Cup. Oliver Kahn may not have played a meaningful game in June but he is still a quality goalkeeper. Just how much the team misses Michael Ballack is the question.

8. Arsenal (Premiership)
Sol Campbell and Robert Pires are gone. Ashley Cole and Jose Antonio Reyes might be heading out. Getting Tomas Rosicky was a great addition by Arsene Wenger. Cesc Fabregas is a fantastic young midfielder but he is not the same type of player as Patrick Vieira who they still haven’t replaced. If Cole departs, the defense will not be good enough for Arsenal to compete at any high level. Also remember, Arsenal made the Champions League this season only because Tottenham Hotspur collapsed on the final day of the season.

9. Olympique Lyon (Ligue 1)
Former Liverpool boss Gerard Houllier went back to France and led Lyon to the top last season. Lyon has the most talented roster in France and should be considered a darkhorse in European competition. They are big fans of winger Franck Ribery and would love to add him to a midfield that is already loaded with internationals.

10. AC Milan (Serie A)
Thank the appeals process for bailing AC Milan out. They will be in the Champions League this season and have seen their point deficit cut. Thanks to that, they have managed to hold on to their players and avoid getting gutted. However, they have to find a way to score goals. Losing Shevchenko is going to hurt real bad.

Just Missing the Cut
Valencia (Primera Liga)
Hamburg SV (Bundesliga)
AS Roma (Serie A)
Porto (Portugal)
PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)

Respect the Pronk

2006-08-15T01:15:00.000-04:00

When people talk about the best designated hitter in baseball, one name immediately comes to mind; David Ortiz. It’s so much of a slam dunk, most people wouldn’t even have to think about it. It’s like a reflex now with everyone and everything telling you how great Ortiz is, some even exhaling him to Hall of Fame proportions.

The problem is that for a while now, there’s been a quiet but very legitimate argument that Ortiz is in fact overrated, stemming from the fact he isn’t even the best hitter on his own team. And now he's not not even the best player at his "position" anymore.

Well to all those like Bill Simmons who swear Ortiz is the second coming, please stop what you’re doing, get up and respect another DH by the name of Travis Hafner. The man who is known as Pronk is, believe it or not, the best designated hitter in baseball. Yes better than even the god-man Ortiz.

Why wouldn’t most people say that? Because most people don’t actually know how good Hafner is. Since he plays for a mediocre Indians team and not in a huge market like Boston, ESPN and others like them just doesn’t have time to cover him. In fact despite clubbing six grand slams this year (tying a major league record), he’s probably still the best player people don’t know about. How else can one justify the fact he’s been left off the All Star roster in the past two years while being a legitimate MVP candidate in both? Yes, Hafner was a candidate last year, in fact, just as worthy as Ortiz. Sacrilege, I know. But first, let’s start with the basics; their overall numbers from 2006.

Hafner: .303/.428/.640/1.068, 35 Hr, 104 RBI, 86 Runs, 28 2B, 84/97 BB/K

Ortiz: .285/.397/.621/.1.018, 41 Hr, 110 RBI, 86 Runs, 22 2B, 80/93 BB/K

Now this isn’t a blowout by any stretch of the imagination, but Hafter has a better average, better on base and better slugging than Ortiz. He has less homeruns but that’s lessened by his average and extra doubles, thus computing out to a higher slugging percentage than Big Papi. So, it’s hard to argue against Hafner based off these numbers. But wait, I can hear it now:

“Ortiz is clutch! Do you know how many big home runs he hits? Do you know how many walk off jobs he has?”

Of course, those same people probably didn’t bother to look at Travis Hafner’s numbers with runners in scoring position this season. So far, Pronk’s OPS with RISP is 1.198 in 117 ABs. Ortiz has been excellent again, as his .993 mark with RISP (in 128 ABs) shows. But that does not compare to Hafner this year.

“You’re missing the point. Look at who’s better when the game’s on the line. It’s clearly Ortiz. Come on, I’ll take those clutch numbers over Hafner’s 50 point advantage in OPS any day of the week and twice on Sunday. You Moneyball stat freaks are all the same.”

Well in Ortiz’s 67 ABs in close and late spots this year, he’s pretty darn good. His OPS stands at 1.254. Hafner on the other hand is just horrible in his 51 ABs. His OPS is just 1.225 with an on base percentage of .500. You see, that’s what will happen when Manny Ramirez is not batting behind you. Hafner has walked 11 times in those spots while Ortiz, in 16 more ABs, has walked 10 times.

When pitchers fall behind Ortiz, they can’t simply walk the guy. They have to come in because of the Hall of Famer standing in the on deck circle. Victor Martinez is a good player, but he’s nowhere near Manny Ramirez. Forget their careers for a moment where it’s not even close. This season Ramirez is an MVP candidate, with an OPS just behind Hafner at 1.060. Victor Martinez is excellent for a catcher, but an .849 mark isn’t going to send shivers down a managers spine. So, who would you rather pitch to, Travis Hafner or Victor Martinez?

Yeah… I thought so.

And heck, who would you rather pitch to? Ortiz (1.018 OPS) or Ramirez (1.060 OPS)?

Speaking of “twice on Sunday” by the way, Hafner had the game winning hits in both ends of Cleveland’s doubleheader sweep of the Royals on Saturday. How’s that for clutch?

“Okay, this is a breakout season for Hafner. But Papi’s been doing this since 2003. You’ve got to give it to him based on consistency.”

Fair argument, but Hafner’s been doing it since 2004. And remember Ortiz is one year older. In fact, their careers look quite similar in terms of the arch with Pronk reaching the level of "superstardom" (at least numbers wise) a year earlier age wise. Ortiz had an OPS of .983 in 2004, Hafner .993. In 2005, a year where many feel Papi had the MVP crown stolen by Alex Rodriguez, the Red Sox DH had an OPS of 1.001. Hafner’s mark was 1.003, which essentially makes their production last year equivalent. Of course Hafner had less RBI last year, but that had more to do with the number of opportunities each player got. Hafner had 138 ABs with RISP in 2005, Ortiz 162, and Hafner even out OPSed Ortiz in those spots 1.071 to 1.042.

Where Ortiz does have it over Hafner is close and late last year, where he OPSed 1.293 in 78 ABs, which is sick. Hafner’s mark was only 1.001 in 70 ABs. Interestingly enough however, Hafner’s OBP was .444, 144 points higher than his batting average. Ortiz was .447, 101 points higher than his batting average. Since the two have pretty similar batting eyes, this suggests Hafner was seeing far less to hit than Ortiz. Once again the “Manny Ramirez factor” rears its head.

So to review, this season Travis Hafner is as good as or better than Ortiz in pretty much every category. Last season, Hafner was as good as or better than Ortiz in almost every category. (And to those who scream about RBI, I refer you to the RISP numbers once again.) Forget what your mind or memory tells you, the truth says otherwise.

Travis Hafner should be the most feared designated hitter in the American League. Big Papi shouldn’t feel bad. There’s no shame in being second. Meanwhile it’s time people realized how good Hafner really is. I know, Bill Simmons can claim he’s Roy Hobbs-esque!

Maybe then he’ll actually be able to make an All Star team.

Welcome to Splitsville

2006-08-14T01:24:00.000-04:00

Player evaluation is a funny thing.

For example, you trade for a player from say, the Texas Rangers. He’s a stud, smacking 25-30 homers a year and driving in close to 100 runs. Then he moves to your park and suddenly flat lines; becoming a below average offensive player for your team. You’re left hold the bag, and you have no idea why.

The reason is because he played in a launching pad. His home stats dramatically inflated his numbers so that teams overlooked his lousy .611 OPS away from home.

Now to be fair, Hank Blalock is still a Texas Ranger and actually has done far better on the road this year. He’s gotten that OPS up to .746, though that’s still below average looking at third basemen this year. Thus should a team attempt to trade for a Ranger like Blalock, they need to remember the player’s home stats help inflate his totals. Such a practice has become common place when looking at Colorado Rockies, though ironically the pendulum appears to have swung completely in the opposite direction in that case.

Today we take a look at five guys who have performed drastically different at home and away this year. In doing so we’ll try to decipher which performance is closer to reality and which one looks like a fluke. As with most splits, the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle, however, to which side of the middle can mean the difference between a respectable 4.20 ERA and 4.70 one.

But despite the ERA example, we’ll start with a hitter. In fact this guy probably has seen the greatest fluctuation between home and road performances this season, at least for position players. And where his success has come is the main reason he may well be an underrated player by his team’s fans.

(Stats are from ESPN.com and through Saturday, August 12th)

Carlos Beltran, CF, New York Mets:

Away: .347/.426/.779/1.205, 199 AB, 22 Hr, 70 RBI, 46 R, 27/36 K/BB

Home: .220/.349/.462/.810, 186 AB, 11 HR, 28 RBI, 40 R, 37/37 K/BB

Far and away the best player in baseball this year away from Shea Stadium, Carlos Beltran has been your average centerfielder OPS wise at home this year. General thought says it’s mental and that Beltran is just pressing to impress the Shea faithful. But his K/BB suggests the opposite; Beltran has been more patient at home than the road having walked exactly as much as he’s K’d at Shea. Despite this, he’s hitting for an average which is 127 points lower than on the road and for far less power. That leads me to believe the problem is two fold; small sample size and Shea Stadium itself.

One would expect Beltran’s numbers to drastically improve at Shea in the final two months because there seems to be nothing wrong with his approach. On the other hand, his road numbers will probably continue to exceed his home numbers since Shea is a pitcher’s park. Currently, the Mets’ home ranks third to last for hitters, depressing homers by an .880 factor. (in other words a ratio of .88/1 home run ratio for Shea versus and neutral park) Bottom line; Beltran’s likely never going to be as good at home as he is on the road. But he should improve at home while slowing down somewhat on the road. Look for him to be in the thick of the NL MVP race the rest of the way.

Chien Ming Wang, SP, New York Yankees:

Away: 5.16 ERA, 66.1 IP, 24/20 K/BB, .321 Opp BA, 5 Hr

Home: 2.66 ERA, 94.2 IP, 25/21 K/BB, .227 Opp BA, 4 Hr

Chien Ming Wang is probably the most hotly debated player at Sportszilla, so much so that it seems as though Bryan and I are seeing two different pitchers here. Turns out, we are. Possessing absolutely the weirdest splits of anyone on here, Wang has been an ace at home and spot starter quality on the road. Why is this so strange? Because in Wang’s case, they defy reason.

Wang’s peripherals are the same home and away. Okay, we know with him that doesn’t tell the whole story because of his ability to induce the ground ball out. The problem is that Wang has a 3.43 GB/FB ratio on the road, with a lower 3.18 mark at home. Yet for some reason, he’s got opponents hitting just .227 off him at Yankee Stadium, while getting swatted to the tune of a .321 Opp BA on the road. Yankee Stadium has played pitcher friendly this year (23rd overall), but since Wang induces so many ground balls, that shouldn’t matter. A ground ball should be the same in most places, outside of artificial turf fields. But he’s had one good and one mediocre start on those.

Since the biggest difference for Wang lies in Opp BA and correspondingly on batting average on balls put in play (BABIP), we should look to see what number is closest to league average. His road BABIP .339 is versus a mark at home of .235. Unfortunately, that doesn’t give us much help because both are equidistant from the league average (.290 is roughly what BABIP should be). Wang isn’t a 5.16 ERA guy, but he’s no 2.27 guy either. Figure it balances out for an ERA in the low to mid 4.00’s (a number which Bryan probably still will take me to task for) especially since his Hr rate near .60/9 is likely unsustainable. But with the Yankees offense, that’s should be just fine.

Kevin Millwood, SP, Texas Rangers:

Away: 3.46 ERA, 80.2 IP, 63/14 K/BB, .278 Opp BA, 8 Hr

Home: 6.28 ERA, 67.1 IP, 33/24 K/BB, .305 Opp BA, 7 Hr

Unlike Wang, Millwood’s woes at home look easy to figure out. He’s walking more people while striking fewer out at the launching pad in Arlington. While his Opp BABIP is almost identical home (.326) and away (.328), since Millwood is getting more balls put in play against him at home, he’s giving up more hits. With the increase in base runners due to poorer control, that equates to a much higher ERA despite not having a much higher Hr/9 rate at home.

The perplexing thing about Millwood is to why he’s striking out less people and walking more in Arlington. Mental issues are hard to use as a justification for anything, since you can’t know what a player is thinking but that is the only satisfactory answer here. You could suggest other things like a better batters’ eye in Arlington, but that doesn’t explain why his BABIP is similar home and away. But then if this is in Millwood’s head and it’s as clear as looking at these stats, why hasn’t someone on Texas alerted him to that fact?

Millwood seems curable, but if this is mental, then there’s no guarantee he’s going to get better. The Rangers need to hope he does however; he’s in the first season of a five year deal, 60 million deal.

Byung Hyun Kim, SP, Colorado Rockies

Away: 6.85 ERA, 47.1 IP, 39/19 K/BB, .337 Opp BA, 8 Hr

Home: 2.75 ERA, 59.0 IP, 47/21 K/BB, .249 Opp BA, 3 Hr

Gah? I know Coors Field is playing close to neutral this year but this is ridiculous. For some reason Kim has been a very good pitcher at home and absolute garbage on the road. Coors is still allows more homers than your average park and Kim is a neutral pitcher, so it isn’t as if his homer rate is being depressed at home by some unholy ball doctoring. However he’s given up just three homers in 59 innings which equates to a rate of .46/9. That’s not going to last. Meanwhile his 1.52 rate on the road looks way too high. But what’s the deal with that Opp BA, especially when Kim isn’t striking out that many more batters per inning at home (8.06) than on the road (7.42).

Like Wang, this looks to be the case of two extremes. While Kim’s opp BA may not increase that drastically at home, his homer rate should. Meanwhile on the road the homer rate should fall a little, while his opp BA should fall a great deal. Overall Kim should have an ERA’s in the mid to low 4.00’s. Despite many notions and that horrific road ERA, he can be a serviceable major league starter in the league, a fourth starter type.

Vernon Wells, CF, Toronto Blue Jays

Away: .298/.365/.457/.822, 208 AB, 6 Hr, 29 RBI, 23 R, 22/33 K/BB

Home: .341/.391/.707/1.099, 229 AB, 21 Hr, 54 RBI, 43 R, 20/33 K/BB

Vernon Wells is not quite the anti Beltran, but he’s close. Wells has been hitting better at home consistently since 2004. That year he posted splits of .298/.371/.549/.920 at home while going .249/.306/.402/.708 on the road. Last season it was more of the same; at home Wells went .291/.346/.500/.846 versus a .248/.295/.428/.723 mark on the road. So at the very least one can say Wells is consistent at producing in Toronto.

But then it isn’t the average which is so amazing in the Wells’ splits. After all, if he has been a better hitter at home over the last three years and he’s a better hitter overall this season, then it stands to reason his home numbers would increase. But a .707 slugging percentage? Where did that come from? 147 in 2004 and 72 in 2005 are decent differences and something that can happen over the course of 230 ABs. But in 2006 the difference is 250 points! Even for an anomaly that’s high. So what’s caused this home power spike?

The Rogers Centre (formerly Skydome) plays close to neutral overall, but it’s been surrendering homers at a 1.38/1 ratio this year, which is second to Camden Yards. It’s hard to believe even with this increase Wells’ surge is solely the result of that, but it might well be. Consider that Troy Glaus has an .973 OPS at home and .853 mark on the road. That isn’t a terrible difference until you look at slugging. On the road, the third baseman has slugged .464 which is solid. But at home he’s slugged a phenomenal .622. That’s a 158 point difference. Lyle Overbay is slugging 203 points higher. Alex Rios’ mark is 112 points more at home. Isolated, we’d take these as flukes. But together it’s clear the Rogers Centre is inflating its power hitters’ numbers. Since this is the case, it’s hard to make an argument against Wells continuing his strong play this year, since it looks as though his average and on base splits reflect his career norms.

So opponents take note. Vernon Wells at home is an MVP candidate. On the road, he’s a solid player, but not one that’s going to kill you on a consistent basis.

There you have it; five players who have been seemingly feast or famine depending on where you face them. But as shown here that doesn’t mean all splits are created equal. Though Carlos Beltran is struggling now at Shea now, reason suggests he’s still the Met you want to avoid most when facing them, not David Wright or Carlos Delgado. And much like Hank Blalock last year, Vernon Wells is a guy who you can pitch to in big spots when he’s on the road. While it may not seem like much, pennant races and playoff games which can come down to one decision it can make all the difference.

Ladewski Out on Strikes

2006-08-11T15:16:00.000-04:00

Good read here over at at the Sporting Brews where Joseph Pawlikowski takes some rips Fire Joe Morgan style on Chicago writer Paul Ladewski. Ladweski blames the White Sox pitching woes on QuesTec, which if you didn’t know, has been a popular excuse for pitchers over the last few years. See Tom Glavine circa 2003 for further reference. Also you can google “Curt Schilling” “punch” and “QuesTec” Anyway, check it out.

When Sports Fail

2006-08-11T00:19:00.000-04:00

The recent news about disgraced former Ohio State running back Maurice Clarett has generated a number of different reactions. Some folks have expressed a fair amount of glee, while others have wondered what went wrong. In the end, the only question I see worth asking is "what can the decline and fall of Maurice Clarett tell us about sports, and America?"

Three and a half years ago he was completing one of the most breathtaking freshman seasons in college football history, capping it with a game-winning touchdown run in double overtime of the national championship game. Today, his future in football seems non-existant, and he'll have to struggle mightily to avoid a significant jail term. Along the way he's lobbed serious allegations at OSU, taken the NFL all the way to the Supreme Court, and proved that not all running backs can succeed in Denver.

Clarett's problems begin in a social setting in which professional athletics are seen as one of the few ways out of a lifetime of crime and poverty for many young black men. Couple that with the explotive nature of youth athletics, and you have a scenario in which a preternaturally talented young man such as Clarett learned quickly that as long as he kept scoring touchdowns he could get away with just about anything, whether it was in middle school, high school, or college. People would give him money, clothes, cars, and whatever else he wanted just to say that they were near him. Given that kind of treatment, are we surprised when Clarett (or many other star athletes) turn out to be less than stable?

I'm currently reading the fascinating book The Ticket Out: Darryl Strawberry and the Boys of Crenshaw, which details Strawberry's high school baseball team, perhaps the greatest collection of baseball talent in American high school history. For Strawberry (and his teammates), baseball was the golden ticket out of the ghetto: for Clarett, it was football. We've seen what the perks of being a star athlete did to Strawberry, and we're seeing the same forces at work in Clarett.

This isn't meant to exonerate Clarett. Ultimately, his choices, his behavior is his responsibility. But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to learn from his failures, to try and understand and prevent them. The first step is to create an environment surrounding youth sports which teaches kids that just because they can hit a ball farther, or run faster, or jump higher then their competition, it doesn't mean they know how to be a sucessful person. Besides, most high school stars don't ever make it to the professional ranks. Unfortunately, with all the money in pro sports there will always be kids (and parents) who have unreasonable expectations, and sleazy boosters, coaches, and others who will take advantage of that desperation.

The other step is to make sure that sports, and other long-shot careers (like music/acting/whatever) don't seem like the only way that poor kids can achieve. Again, this is a broad, idealistic suggestion, and I realize it. But the important thing to realize out of Maurice Clarett's life is that he's not some freakish anomoly...he's just self-destructed in public because he used to be really good at carrying the football. Until we as a society see that people like him are the products of our ignorance, our intolerance, and our apathy, we'll continue to see our current and former stars fall apart. While it might seem entertaining, it's mostly just sad.

The title of this post is "When Sports Fail," and I mean that. Sports failed Maurice Clarett. Being a star running back didn't teach him how to deal with failure, or adversity, didn't teach him how to live his life. From a young age he was told how great he was, and in many ways he remains that teenager, unable to interact with the world around him in a measured, healthy way. But unlike most of us, who grew out of that mindset (because we realized that things wouldn't be handed to us on a silver platter), Clarett remained warped: he expected his NFL millions to be handed to him (even a year or two ahead of schedule). Again, his choices to violate NCAA regulations and to take the NFL to court are his responsibility. But there's a much more complex explanation than that he's crazy. He worshipped at the idol of sports, and he learned that if such a god exists, it's capricious at best.

Remembering the Old, Rewarding the New

2006-08-09T04:07:00.000-04:00

If you’ve been following the New York Mets over the last week then you’ve no doubt noticed an interesting dichotomy as the team takes one last look back at their most recent glories as they move forward with their present success.

We start with the old, as I was lucky enough to be in attendance for Mike Piazza’s first game back at Shea since departing as a free agent this last off season.

For Mets fans, Piazza was the icon of the successes of the late nineties, the man who came oh so close to delivering the franchise’s first title since 1986. He also was the greatest player the Mets have had in their franchise since Darryl Strawberry was belting balls out into the right field bullpen. Furthermore, Piazza was the first Hall of Fame player the Mets had in his prime since the days of Tom Seaver. In fact, outside of Seaver, Piazza is the only one.

Before the start of this one, the Mets honored Piazza with a video tribute which has become oh so customary to do. The fans ate it up, myself included. No doubt they wanted to relive some of those home runs and see them one last time. For me, there are four I’ll always remember.

The fourth; the homer that capped the 10 run inning against the Braves. It was a regular season game, but it was an unlikely comeback against a hated division foe. The third, the shot he hit off Steve Karsay when baseball returned to New York after September 11th 2001. This one needs no explanation. The second was the lighting bolt he hit off Ramiro Mendoza in a Mets/Yankee game at Shea in 1999. It just rocketed off his bat so quickly even on TV you knew it was gone when he hit it. Hell, Piazza even flipped the bat, showing up Mendoza, something he never did to pitchers. But it was instinct and reflex, he knew he crushed it. And he had; it struck the tent behind the left field bullpen. When a power hitter is impressed by a shot of his, you know it’s something. And the first, as I’ve written about before, was the laser he hit when a less glorious Met returned to Shea in 2001, that the infamous Mike Hampton.

The ovation didn’t cease until the first pitch and started again when Piazza entered the on deck circle in the first inning. Some applause, like my own, might have been for Mike Cameron, who was returning to Shea as well, but most figured to be for Hall of Famer. They had to hold it in for a little while; Steve Trachsel somehow retired the side in order. But when the second inning rolled around, things exploded.

When Piazza stepped to the plate, he received the ovation he deserved. The stadium rose again clapping loudly throughout the at bat. Chats of his name could be heard throughout. As the camera panned to him as he walked into the batters’ box, one could almost see the smirk on his face. Even the always cool, collected and business like Piazza could not resist it in the midst of such fan appreciation. As I watched on that jumbo-tron screen, I couldn’t help but think;

“Come on Mikey, smile. You’ve earned that right.”

But business went on. Trachsel retired him, and did so throughout the game. Piazza would reach on a single before eventually being lifted in the 8th inning on a double switch. After his last AB, the crowd gave their hero one last standing ovation. I’m not sure one night of cheers and applause can sum up the way Piazza brought Mets fans to their feet over the years, but if it is in fact possible, then the fans certainly succeeded Tuesday night.

But while memories of the fun that was 99-00 are nice, the future is bright around the Mets as well. And it got even brighter this week when the team extended the contracts of David Wright and Jose Reyes past their first few years of free agency.

Many have criticized these moves for different reasons. Some believe the Mets are taking a big chance on Reyes, who is just a year and a half removed from serious leg issues and has just one season worth of success at the major league level. In Wright’s case the concerns are two fold; first that he received a much larger deal in the end than Reyes and that the Mets at the end of the deal committed 15 million to a guy who has had two years in the big leagues.

First with Reyes; the reality is that he would have to suffer multiple leg injuries that knocked him out for substantial stretches for him not to eventually get a deal like this down the road. In fact the Mets will likely get a bargain. Even if Reyes doesn’t get better from what he is now, a .300 hitter who steals 60 bases, gets 20 triples and 30 doubles a year with around 14-15 homers, as an above average defensive shortstop, the kid would make seven to ten million easily. But conventional wisdom says that at 23, he will improve, as does the fact he’s gotten better every season in the bigs. So if Reyes does become a 20 homer, 35 double, 20 triple guy with the ability to swipe 50 bases a year, that alone with get him 10 million. If his defense does become Gold Glove caliber as well, then we’re talking 15 million or more. Does that sound crazy to you? Well look at this guys’ age 23 season.

.291/.370/.405/.775, 10 Hr, 116 runs, 70 RBI, 23 SB, 31 2B, 7 3B

Now Reyes’ projected for the whole season:

.294/.350/.470/.820, 16 Hr, 135 runs, 76 RBI, 70 SB, 31 2B, 19 3B

Those who know me well can probably guess who that first player’s line is. I simply could not resist a comparison to Derek Jeter. The Yankees’ shortstop’s age 22 season was light years better than Reyes’ but Reyes looks to have the edge just a year later. This leads into the prior point; outside of 1999 and 2006, Jeter’s never posted an OPS above 900. If Reyes improves just slightly offensively, then he can be the player Jeter was for the vast majority of his career. If Jeter can turn that into a 190 million dollar contract, then the nine million or so the Mets will be handing Reyes at the end of the deal looks like chump change in comparison. Of course, should Reyes improve even further, then it will look, appropriately, like a steal. And even if Reyes does fall apart physically, then the Mets will be on the hook for a big payout at the very end of the deal. They can handle a one year loss in that case. All and all, it’s a risk that they could easily afford.

A similar situation exists for Wright, though his contract is even harder to question. In his first two and a half years in the bigs Wright has career splits of .305/.385/.547/.907. He’s 23 now and like Reyes, has improved every year he’s been up with the Mets. His improvement hasn’t been as drastic, but that’s because he already was a solid player when he got to the big leagues. As a result, it’s only fair Wright gets a larger contract than Reyes. While I believe Reyes will end up being the most valuable of the two, the Mets are paying extra for the certainty Wright provides them. He’s done it longer and doesn’t have the injury history Reyes has, thus he can make 15 million in the last year of the deal. Heck, if Wright was 26 and had put up these numbers the last two years heading into free agency he’d probably get 14-15 million on the market this year.

The other aspect which people seem to overlook because the Mets are a big market team is the financial certainty this provides them. Reyes would have been arbitration eligible after this season and Wright after the next. For those who don’t know, that’s when a player and a team both submit figures on what the player will be paid for the upcoming season. Should the sides not agree or compromise, the two sides head to an arbitrator and he (or she) decides who “wins” arbitration. The player is paid what the winning side offered. Now arbitration happens very late in the off season, so a large arbitration award can really mess up a team’s salary structure.

The Mets have greater room for this than the Royals, but they’re not the Yankees with seemingly unlimited funds. It’s a lot harder to throw 15 million at Barry Zito when you’re shortstop might end up making seven million the next year and your third baseman nine million the season after that. What if both in two years had surpassed the 10 million dollar range? The Mets simply could not say for sure what Wright and Reyes could cost in the upcoming years and that no doubt would hinder their spending in the future.

In locking them up, the Mets know for sure what the two will be on the books for. With the way the deals are structured as back loaded contracts, it allows the team to spend money in the next few years on free agents, while not having to worry about paying the duo big bucks until after Carlos Delgado, Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez are off the books. A solid move by GM Omar Minaya, one of his best of the season.

Tonight the Mets won 3-2 to spoil Mike Piazza’s return. The player of the game? David Wright, who scored the Mets’ first run and drove in the next two. Marquee Met of days past, meet the marquee Mets of the present and future as Jose Reyes singled while swiping two bags off the old backstop. And so, Tuesday night was symbolic of the change in the New York Mets, a change which can be summed up quite simply as;

Mike thanks for the memories. Met fans will never forget you.

David and Jose, Met fans can’t wait to see what heights you can take them to.

Two Sides of the Same Coin

2006-08-08T05:06:00.000-04:00

When cyclist Floyd Landis was revealed to have taken PEDs during his now tarnished Tour De France victory, many people expressed a feeling of sense and outrage. They were shocked that a man who had seemingly come from nowhere to become the heir to the mantle of the great Lance Armstrong had in fact, cheated. This despite the fact that anyone who has the most casual of interest in cycling, (and casual is probably an overstatement for most, like myself) should know this is a sport so wracked with PED use it makes baseball look clean. So why, despite the realities of the sport, were people surprised to find out Landis was just another cyclist who doped up?

Perhaps people do like to believe in innocent until proven guilty here in America. Well unless the person on trial is Barry Bonds anyway.

How else can justify the difference in public perception from Bonds to the man Landis was made out to be; Armstrong? Armstrong achieved something historical, winning the Tour de France seven times, something that even exceeds Bonds’ home run record in terms of implausibility. Now when wracked with questions over doping and drug use, Armstrong fervently denies as Bonds has. Yet, unlike Bonds, he’s not universally hated, despite their situations not being all that different.

Neither has submitted a positive test. And that likely will never happen in either case, with Armstrong retired and Bonds likely using untraceable (at least to MLB testing) substances. There is merely anecdotal and circumstantial evidence for both men. In Bonds case, it comes from reports of steroid side effects, such as back acne, while his head has also grown in size. In Armstrong’s case, there have been accusations by foreign newspapers but I guess we only accept reports from papers that are located in the Bay Area. However, perhaps more importantly, a telling indictment came at the beginning of this year’s Tour; when many top cyclists, including Jan Ulrich, Armstrong’s number one competitor, were barred from competing.

Why is this telling? Well in a sport that is filled with users, where leading cyclists die from heart attacks at 35, it is hard to believe that Armstrong was exempt from using while completely dominating his competition. Perhaps it could have been rationalized that doping was rampant among those that couldn’t hack it with Armstrong. But once Ulrich went down, it became clear that PEDs went far beyond the likes of your average rider trying to get to the big boys; those big boys were using too.

So you’ve got four choices here; Ulrich wasn’t using while he competed with Armstrong, Armstrong is superhuman, PEDs aren’t what they’re cracked up to be, or Armstrong was using just like the rest of them.

The first is unlikely; if Ulrich was the favorite this year with no Armstrong, why would he suddenly resort to using? It seems as though he’d have tried them before to beat Armstrong. The second reason is just as believable as Superman himself, or Spider-Man and Wolverine for that matter. They make for great movies, but not realistic sports stories. (Seriously, can you imagine Wolverine applying a tag at second base? Talk about getting spiked…) The third reason even more improbable than the second; with the highly developed science that is PED development and use nowadays, it’s doubtful these drugs aren’t helping the athletes perform.

So that just leaves choice four, which is the most likely scenario; Armstrong was using. Let’s look at this rationally. If the whole sport seems to be doping and one guy dominates the sport like no other for an unparalleled amount of time, would you think that guy is clean?

Or how about another example; a great baseball player goes from never hitting 50 homers in a season to suddenly hitting 70 in a sport where PEDs are running rampant. Think something is amiss?

The sad thing is that what Bonds did is actually far more common than what Armstrong did. Believe it or not, career years happen in baseball. There are guys who went from all stars to zeros over the course of one year plenty of times in the history of the game, and there will be plenty more like them to come. There are also scores of good players who for one year put up numbers far beyond what their norms were. That my friends, is called a career year. They happen in sports, and they’re not always the result of PEDs.

That isn’t to say Bonds didn’t use; the circumstantial evidence is all there. But it’s there with Armstrong as well. So again I ask, why do people forsake Bonds, yet cheer Armstrong?

It can’t be because of their charming personalities; while Bonds is a jerk, Armstrong is by all accounts no nice guy either. This is a guy who, once hitting stardom, divorced his wife and ended up with Sheryl Crow. Um… sound sketchy to you? That sounds a lot worse to me than being uppity with the press core, whom you owe nothing. And yes, I know there are other stories of Bonds being a jerk, but most people don’t know them. They only are aware about his antics with the media, which says little to nothing about his actual personality.

Could it be the fact Armstrong was a cancer survivor? Maybe, but while I hate to even go there, I must. When Jason Giambi reportedly ended up with a tumor, and then in the wake of his Grand Jury testimony, what did people say? It was the result of his using. No one knows for sure, but it’s possible. Armstrong competes in a sport where everyone dopes. Isn’t it possible that his cancer was caused by using?

It sounds harsh, but I can only shift through the facts handed to me. If the reason is good for Jason Giambi, then it’s good for Lance Armstrong. Heck, ask yourself, if Barry Bonds developed cancer, or had a heart attack tomorrow or five years from now, what would you say? That he was unlucky? That life is tragic and that your number could be called at any time? Sure, some might say that.

But I’m willing to gamble 98 percent of you would say “Well that’s what happens when you take steroids. More proof he used.” And perhaps what’s even more disturbing is that there are some who would smile with glee over the passing of this man who they never met once. They hate him and yet, they don’t know why.

The truth is, the more one looks at it, the stranger it becomes. If as much common sense supports Armstrong using as Bonds or Mark McGwire, then how come there aren’t scores of people screaming to put an asterisk next to those seven Tour victories? If Lance Armstrong were to suffer a relapse of his cancer, or have a heart attack, some would suspect PED use. But most would mourn the tragic loss of a man they never met once. They love him and yet, they don’t know why.

The reason? The media.

The media sold Armstrong as an American hero in every sense of the ideal. He overcame long odds, handed to him unjustly. Yet he not only goes on to triumph over his seemingly invincible foe, but then wins a race that has been dominated by Europeans for years. And then he does it again and again. Over and over he conquers over those foreigners, those non- Americans, showing what country is the greatest. He exemplifies that “never say die” American spirit, and in the process that “take no crap, we’ll beat the hell out of you because we’re a superpower” ability. And that is the gift wrapped image Armstrong is made out to be. He sells the image so well, things like dumping his family for a celebrity are overlooked. His denials of PED use are tacitly accepted as he is trotted out on talk shows where they lob softball questions and is allowed to host made for TV award shows.

Why do people go along with this? Because the underlying message the media has sent from the very beginning with Armstrong has been that Americans are superior to everyone else. The French hate him because they hate America and how we passed them culturally, economically and socially as a world power. The same with the rest of Europe. So when Armstrong basically tells the world, “Yeah, I’m able to beat all of these guys who are cheating with nothing but my own god given ability and hard core American work ethic” the world snickers. But Americans eat it up because they want to believe it. They want that message the media has sent them to be true.

Floyd Landis’ greatest crime wasn’t cheating, but tarnishing that image. He made Americans question that air of superiority, and because the media had linked Landis to Armstrong already, Americans could not help but question their icon as well. But Armstrong will survive, because the message is too powerful in this day and age to die.

Barry Bonds has no such message. He doesn’t represent mainstream America. He isn’t proving anything except that he is arguably the best baseball player of all time. There are underlying racial tones here as well, but I will not go into them now.

In short, despite evidence being essentially equal in both cases, one man is a hero and the another a villain in the court of public opinion.

That is what I call hypocrisy. I’m sure that’s what Barry Bonds would call “America.”

The sad thing is, after reflecting on this, I can’t say I disagree.

It's Finally Carson's Time

2006-08-05T22:31:00.000-04:00

-Thirteen years in the National Football League
-One Super Bowl (1986)
-Selected to play in nine Pro Bowls, including seven straight (1982-1988)
-All-Pro (first-team) 1981, 1984; (second-team) 1978, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986
-All-NFC (first-team) 1978, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1986; (second-team) 1978, 1985

It’s about time that Harry Carson got inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Two years ago, after making the final 15 candidates for the sixth straight year but not being elected by a panel of sports writers, Carson asked to have his name withdrawn from consideration. It’s like being told that you’re good but not good enough when your resume obviously screams Hall of Fame worthy.

Now while I’m too young to remember seeing Carson, my dad said it time after time. “Harry Carson was the anchor of that great Giants defense. It’s because of his instincts and ability to make the tackle that allowed Lawrence Taylor to run all over the field and pressure the quarterback. Taylor might be considered the greatest linebacker of all time and the man who revolutionized the position but if Carson was not there to back him up, Parcells would have the put the leash on him and made him play in position.”

And now finally, the waiting has ended and today, Harry Carson joined football immortality in Canton.

The Italian Job

2006-08-04T19:03:00.000-04:00

I can’t help but watch what’s going on in Toronto. The Raptors are already an outsider in the NBA since they play in Canada but now, they are taking more steps toward becoming truly international.

It started with the hiring of General Manager Bryan Colangelo from the Phoenix Suns. In his time in the Valley of the Sun, Colangelo helped architect the transformation of the Suns into a team that pushes the ball and doesn’t play much defense. He made Mike D’Antoni, a man considered to be one of the greatest minds in Italian basketball the head coach and signed Steve Nash. During the 2004-2005 regular season, Phoenix set the NBA on fire as Nash became MVP of the league and the Suns finished with the best record in the NBA at 62-20. Unfortunately, their lack of defense cost them in the playoffs as they lost to Spurs. Despite losing Amare Stoudemire for the season and having to trade away Joe Johnson for Boris Diaw, he still built a team (before resigning at the end of February) that finished 54-28 but lost again in the playoffs to the Dallas Mavericks.

One of his first moves as GM was the hiring of Benetton Treviso general manager Maurizio Gherardini as assistant GM. Under Gherardini, Benetton soared to four league championships (1997, 2002, 2003 and 2006), three Italian supercups (1997, 2001 and 2002), made four appearances in the Euroleague's final four (1993, 1998, 2002, and 2003), and helped them capture seven Italian Cups (1993-1995, 2000, 2003-2005). In 2003, Gherardini was interviewed for the Charlotte Bobcats general manager position. It was the first time in the history of the NBA that a non-American citizen has been interviewed for a top job on an NBA team. Although he was seriously considered for the job the Bobcats hired Bernie Bickerstaff instead.

They hit the jackpot when they won the draft lottery and received the first overall pick in June’s draft which they used to take forward Andrea Bargnani from Benetton. They cleared room for him to start by dealing last year’s first round draft pick Charlie Villanueva to Milwaukee for point guard T.J. Ford. The Raptors also traded for Kris Humpries, Rasho Nesterovic, and signed Fred Jones. They also signed Anthony Parker from Maccabi Tel Aviv to a three year, 12 million dollar deal. The Raptors continued to tap the international market by signing forward Jorge Garbajosa to compliment Spanish point guard José Calderón, who struggled in his debut year and Uroš Slokar who also played for Benetton last year. Currently, the roster features five European players and an American who spent a few years in the Euroleague. This roster is starting to look like a less talented version of the Phoenix Suns.

Will this team compete for a playoff spot? I doubt it’s going to happen this year but the Toronto fans will take progress. But Toronto’s shift toward the Italian style of play is continued evidence that shows that the NBA is slowly moving toward a more European style of play. However, the only way it will gain full legitimacy in the NBA is when a team wins a championship playing that style. People look at the Suns and say that they are a great regular season team but can’t go all the way because they can’t play defense. If the Raptors eventually become a contender under Colangelo and Gherardini, the same questions will be asked of them as well.

One of the only reasons why the European style of basketball even matters in this country is because of the recent failures of Team USA basketball. For this year’s World Championships and with a view to the 2008 Olympics, the US changed their philosophy by bringing in Coach Mike Krzyzewski and making players try out for the team. Also, the team will not necessarily be the best 12 American players. Players will fill certain roles like Bruce Bowen and Shane Battier who will counted on for their perimeter defending and Brad Miller for his ability to pass the ball despite being a center. Also, Mike D’Antoni is on Coach K’s staff because he is knowledgible on the European game and Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim is also there for his expertise on the zone defense which is something Team USA could have some trouble playing against.

Speaking of Team USA, they played very well last night as they blew out Puerto Rico. Unlike the teams of 2002 and 2004, this one showed a lot hustle, a desire to play defense, and made it clear that they not only wanted to win, but wanted to dominate and take back the title of being the best team in the world. In order to do that, they will need to beat the rest of the world at their own game.

In Trax- ion

2006-08-03T03:48:00.000-04:00

There’s an unfortunate reality in sports; loyalty comes second to winning championships.

It’s a realm where great ten years ago means little if you’re below average now. The phrase “thanks for the memories” only applies in the short term. Cold and wrong as it can appear, such is life in the sports world. If there’s a season on the line and you can’t produce anymore, then the team has no choice but to replace you with someone who can.

And it’s time the New York Mets do that with Steve Trachsel.

This is a team trying to get to a World Series and in an ideal world win it. They made overtures to bring in an ace at the deadline but things fell through. So forced to go into the postseason essentially as is, they need to figure out what combination of the guys currently on their roster gives them the best chance to win. With Tom Glavine struggling and Orlando Hernandez hit or miss, that fourth spot could well be crucial. They need the best possible candidate to start that game, history before this season be damned. As such, the Mets need to get rid of Trachsel and start auditioning more qualified candidates. The sooner the better.

Trachsel’s ERA is 5.12, but that isn’t the problem. It’s the stark decline in his peripherals this year which is so disconcerting. His K/9 is a career low by far, 4.14, and his K/BB is beyond horrible at .98. He’s walking more people than he’s striking out. Nobody really can survive doing that, though a groundball pitcher has a better shot at being respectable. But Trachsel’s GB/FB ratio is 1.06, meaning he’s a predominantly flyball pitcher. That is a bad sign.

It’s weird to think that a pitcher with a 5.12 ERA is lucky but it appears Trachsel has been just that. Look at his stats when compared with the last two holders of the Mets fifth spot in the rotation; Alay Soler and Mike Pelfrey.

Trachsel: 116.0 IP, 5.12 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 4.11 K/9, .98 K/BB, 1.01 GB/FB, 1.32 Hr/9, .308 Opp BA

Editor's Note: Pelfrey's stats are actually incorrect, courtesy of some faulty information (thank you WorldWide Leader). The correct stats are in italics below

Pelfrey: 21.1 innings, 5.48 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 5.48 K/9, 1.08 K/BB, 2.36 GB/FB, .75 Hr/9, .463 Opp BA .305 Opp BA

Soler: 45.0 innings, 6.00 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4.60 K/9, 1.10 K/BB, 1.01 GB/FB, 1.40 Hr/9, .275 Opp BA

And the guy who the Mets have been so reluctant to actually give a starting spot to, John Maine:

Maine: 33.0 innings, 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.36 K/9, 2.70 K/BB, 1.06 GB/FB, 1.09 Hr/9, .198 Opp Ba

Both Soler and Pelfrey have been sent down to AAA. Neither had a real good argument to stay, except the fact that despite what their ERA and W/L records indicate, they’ve been better pitchers than Trachsel. Maine’s problem is that he’s a kid, only in his second big league season, so he’s clearly not as trustworthy as the veteran Trachsel. Of course, even if Maine did fall apart, it’s actually hard to be worse than what Trachsel’s been this year. In fact, according to the Hardball Times’ FIP (ERA with team fielding equalized), there is just one pitcher worse than the 35 year old righty; the Cardinals’ Jason Marquis. And if you take Trachsel’s expected FIP (which is the same stat with homer rates normalized), he is the worst in the NL at 6.06. With his poor K/BB and K/9 numbers, this is probably closer to where Trachsel should actually be. And for comparison’s sake, here are some other horrific pitchers who have graced the NL this year:

Jason Marquis: 141.1 IP, 5.67 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 4.14 K/9, 1.38 K/BB, 1.08 GB/FB, 1.59 Hr/9, .275 Opp BA

Livan Hernandez: 139.2 IP, 5.48 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 5.28 K/9, 1.61 K/BB, .89 GB/FB, 1.35 Hr/9, .301 Opp BA

Jae Seo: 103.1 IP, 5.84 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 5.23 K/9, 1.46 K/BB, .91 GB/FB, 1.82 Hr/9, .295 Opp BA (7 D-Rays appearences included)

Suffice to say, if Steve Trachsel hasn’t been the worst pitcher in the National League this season, he’s damn close. Marquis, lousy Livan and Jae Seo, who’s been bounced from LA’s rotation and exiled to Tampa Bay, have all out pitched Trachsel this year. Yet the Mets seem oblivious to this and continue to assure that he will be guaranteed a rotation spot.

This isn’t to say rookie Mike Pelfrey, sent down Tuesday, isn’t better served in the minors, but right now with his one pitch, the 2 seam fastball, he’s already a better pitcher than Trachsel. Opponents are hitting .463 off him but that looks to be product of bad luck over a small sample size, especially considering opponents are slugging just .574. In more plain terms; Pelfrey’s surrendered 25 hits but 21 of them (84 %) have been singles. That suggests he was not getting hit that hard, no matter what his Opp Ba says. In comparison, 84 of the 134 hits Trachsel has allowed have been singles. (66%) And remember an opponents batting average against as high as Pelfrey’s is unsustainable. The league average is usually around .290, so the rookie’s .463 is utterly ridiculous and would not stay that elevated.

author's note: as Zach wrote in, ESPN's player card pages are messed up. When I just double checked it, the average again came up .463, but when it was refreshed it droped to .305. The correct line is .305/.408/.415 and 72% of the hits Pelfrey has surrendered are singles. Still a better line than Trachsel, but not as good.

But today, Mike Pelfrey is in AAA while Steve Trachsel continues to make starts for the Mets. If the rookie’s stats weren’t good enough to hack it in the bigs, then what’s keeping Trachsel here? The latter’s 10 wins?

A pitcher’s won/loss record is about the most meaningless statistic in baseball, even more useless than saves. Trachsel has 10 wins because the Mets have scored an average of 6.53 runs for him per start; good for second in the NL. So because Trachsel happens to be on the mound when the Mets pound an opposing pitcher, he gets the win. By the way, tied for the National League lead in wins is none other than… Jason Marquis! Still think wins are an important statistic?

Steve Trachsel was a solid 3rd /4th starter for the Mets in the past. But 2003 won’t help the Mets in 2006. It doesn’t matter what the right hander was then, all that matters is what he is now; one of the five worst pitchers in baseball. The Mets can do better and likely will need to if they want to win a championship this year. They’ve got at least one pitcher who can be and could find at least ten other guys on the waiver trade market who would be more reliable alternatives. Thus the message should be clear as harsh as it might sound.

Forget the past. Designate Steve Trachsel for assignment, now.

Hey, Sports Guy! Listen Up...

2006-08-02T17:00:00.000-04:00

David Ortiz is a baaaaad, baaaaad man. He spits on pitchers' graves. He cures what ails ya'. He hits home runs for the Red Sox. That said, Bill Simmons displays no understanding of the concept of league context in his comparison of Larry Bird and David Ortiz. Observe:

Bird averaged a 26-9-8 in the '86 playoffs, won the Finals MVP and cemented a summer of "Greatest Player Ever" features, then followed that up with a career year in '87 (28 points, 9.3 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 53 percent field-goal shooting, 91 percent from the line, 40 percent from 3s, his second straight title in the 3-point shooting contest). Meanwhile, Big Papi just completed the following 12-month stretch (starting on Aug. 1, 2005 and ending July 31, 2006): batted .294 with a .399 on-base and .604 slugging percentages, 59 homers, 165 RBIs and at least 20-25 humongous hits in the clutch. Sorry, those are Roy Hobbs numbers.

I'm not going to mess with the basketball claims, though I suspect someone with more time and know-how can show that Bird's greatness lies in his sustained excellence, not his peak.

Baseball, on the other hand, is right in my wheelhouse. Calling Papi's numbers from last August 1 "Roy Hobbs numbers" is hyperventilating blindness at its best. Papi is awesome, and those numbers sure do look sweet, but he's not so superhuman that nobody else is doing what he's doing. I give you several other hitters and their rate splits from 1 August 2005 through 1 August 2006 (give or take a day or three, due to the database needing time to catch up). They are all very much baaaaad, baaaaaad men. Without peeking, can you guess who they are? Stats via the Baseball Musings Stats Database, which is based on Retrosheet.

Papi: 296/401/642, 59HR
(Simmons's numbers are screwed up. He didn't give Papi enough credit to begin with!)

Player A: 295/413/610, 44HR
Player B: 314/432/649, 46HR
Player C: 291/368/615, 52HR
Player D: 319/426/629, 46HR
Player E: 289/407/619, 33HR
Player F: 327/425/586, 28HR
Player G: 301/406/584, 40HR

I'll tell you who they are right after this next bit of inanity from Simmons...

The DH thing will hurt Ortiz in any voting, which doesn't quite make sense -- so if he played 90 games at first base and gave you a C-plus there, that would make him more valuable? I don't get it. Bonds won the MVP in 2003 and 2004 moving around in left field like Redd Foxx. That gave him more credibility than Ortiz as a DH? Crazy.

If Papi played adequate first base (for the record, I have little doubt he could), Theo could have gone into the season planning on having Manny DH, and therefore have had more and better offensive AND defensive options for the lineup. While the Lowell/Youkilis combo has worked out beautifully at the corner infield spots, there's no way the Sox could have expected Lowell's contributions this year. Playing Youk at 3B, Ortiz at 1B, and figuring out whether Manny should DH and finding an outfielder, or acquiring a big bat to DH would have been a better problem to have than risking a Mike Lowell meltdown in order to get Beckett. Brian Giles, anyone?

As for the Bonds claim, let's see what Mr. "I may have used PEDs without knowing I used them" did over the ENTIRE 2003-04 seasons:

Barry Bonds: 353/572/783

Who was hitting like Roy Hobbs, again?

And the players I listed above...

A: Hafner
B: Pujols
C: Howard
D: Manny
E: Thome
F: Chipper
G: Berkman

Bonus: 8 guys have been intentionally walked as many times or more than Papi has since 1 August 2005 (It's good times hitting in front of Manny, isn't it?). Can you name them? ANSWER

Win Some, Lose Some

2006-08-01T02:31:00.000-04:00

Now that the trade deadline has passed, we get to that beautiful little period where we put on our “experts” caps and evaluate which teams committed highway robbery and which teams got hosed on July 31st. Of course, the real answers won’t be known for at least three months, and in some cases much longer. But really, who wants to wait three years for a “winner/loser” column on this deadline?

In any case, my thoughts are as follows. Feel free to disagree with them as you see fit. Oh and you can find links to my indepth evaluations of the trades at the bottom.

Give em the Win:

New York Yankees: They bolstered their offense and rotation at the cost of money, which is actually meaningless to them. It’s true. The Yankees use 1000 dollar bills as toilet paper, and a 100 dollar bills as dog toilet paper. (AKA A-Rod TP) Anyway, they got a very good corner outfielder and a solid innings eater for kids who probably will never contribute. Oh yeah, and they turned Shawn Chacon into a good player. That alone makes me wonder if Brian Cashman has some sort of mind control device.

Seattle Mariners: Outside of the Yankees, the Mariners were probably the second biggest winners at this deadline. Why? The AL West essentially stood pat, outside of some Rangers moves, meaning the Mariners have to feel they have a chance to win the division. When I said I didn’t feel they’d make it, it was because I figured the Angels would get a bat. But with deals for Alfonso Soriano and Miguel Tejada falling through, they’re the same pitching heavy, offensively lite team as before. If the Mariners can figure out how to get something out of Moyer/Piniero/Washburn, they could be dangerous.

New York Mets: They lost Duaner Sanchez which hurts but they didn’t give up anything great for Roberto Hernandez. It also forced them to hold onto Aaron Heilman and Lastings Milledge, which will bolster the team’s future. Oliver Perez is a project, but years from now people will look back and laugh how the Mets were able to get such a talented guy for Xavier Nady.

Colorado Rockies: They’re contenders in a weak division but a contender nonetheless. They were looking for bullpen help and got it in Jeremy Affeldt. It also frees them up to make a waiver wire deal using someone from their pen as bait, supposing someone they’re interested in clears.

Kansas City Royals: In their state, they’re much better off with Ryan Shealy than either Affeldt or Denny Bautista. Best of all they placed Doug Mientkiewicz on the DL today, meaning this move is now Buddy Bell proof! He can’t keep Minky in for that important “veteran leadership”. You know, the same type which has the Royals the laughing stock of the American League, if not baseball. Well they’re a winner today, so that’s a start.

Oakland A’s: They didn’t deal Zito, which will suggest to some that they’re losers. But Billy Beane has shown the ability to replace players even if they leave via free agency, so I see no big loss here. Meanwhile they still can make the playoffs in the AL West. Who knows? Maybe this will be the year they actually take a series.

Texas Rangers: Carlos Lee will improve a mediocre offense, meaning they made the biggest impact move of the AL West teams. Their other trades leave much to be desired however, and as a result, did not make themselves the class of the division. Kip Wells will be disastrous and could well cost them the division if they give him any more than a few starts from here on out. Hopefully for their fans sake, they don’t let him lose more than two games for them.

Washington Nationals: They got a decent prospect back for a useless Mike Stanton. They stole three players from the Reds earlier this month. Sure they didn’t deal Soriano, but if they were getting low balled, then they shouldn’t have. Plus we’ll see what happens this offseason, if they can resign him. The Soriano thing alone would get them a no decision, but with the other deals it’s hard not to like what Jim Bowden’s done this month.

I know, I had to re-read that last sentence a few times because it still doesn’t seem right to me.

Taking the Loss

Pittsburgh Pirates: Fire Dave Littlefield now. Craig Wilson for Shawn Chacon? Oliver Perez AND Roberto Hernandez for Xavier Nady (and his .813 OPS)? What is there to be optimistic for as a Pirates’ fan now? The countdown until they trade Zach Duke next year for the decaying remains of Darren Erstad? I guess Dave Littlefield deserves some credit for turning Kip Wells into something that could eventually have value and getting a marginal relief prospect for Sean Casey. Not enough credit where he deserves to hold onto his job though.

Atlanta Braves: Did John Schuerholz not watch his team recently? Their pen isn’t good, but their starters are even worse. Yet he trades a solid player in Wilson Betemit for bullpen help… why? Case and point. New acquisition Danys Baez came in and pitched a scoreless inning on Sunday against the Mets. What did it do? Nothing, because Chuck James gave up seven runs in one+ inning of work to start the game. Braves lost 10-6 and got swept. It’s over Atlanta. Time to retool. Too bad you dealt away one of your most useful chips in this pathetic last ditch attempt to make a run at a team that can’t even see you in the standings.

(Yes, this was some seven years worth of aggravation boiling over)

Los Angeles Dodgers: I don’t love the Maddux trade, but Izturis isn’t very good. But then they go and make a trade for a guy in Lugo they likely won’t sign and gave up two good prospects for him in the process. Mistake Betemit was a solid trade yet indicated they were sellers. Then they do this two days later? What changed in that time exactly? Seriously, if Paul DePodesta had done this, the Bill Platskes of the world would have killed him for “lacking direction.” Well I’ll say it; the Dodgers are a mess.

San Francisco Giants: Two franchises invariably linked throughout their history, it’s only fair the Giants have joined the Dodgers in the muck. This team should be dismantling, instead is trading away chips for average players at best. Or in Mike Stanton’s case, below average. They will rue trading away Jeremy Accardo, as soon as next week, since it appears they’ve lost all faith in Armando Benitez. Sure they’ll get two first rounders for Jason Schmidt, but Brian Sabean hates first round picks, so he’ll probably give them away on the next Michael Tucker type fifth outfielder out there this winter. Things aren’t pretty on that side of the Bay.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: This team’s pitching has carried it, but eventually Jered Weaver will come back to Earth. Meanwhile the offense is anemic and while playing Howie Kedrick will help, they needed a big bat in the worse way. The AL West is a jumbled mess right now. The Angels had the pitching and just needed a bat, which shouldn’t have been hard to acquire. Apparently, it was.

Philadelphia Phillies: One year of salary relief for nothing. What a joke. Maybe they can turn Jon Lieber into something in August, since his large contract will probably make it through waivers. Things don’t look pretty at Citizen’s Bank. But hey, at least they’re not that other team from Pennsylvania.

Red Sox/Blue Jays: They didn’t make themselves better while the Yankees did, so this is a default loss. There is still time for both as there are back end rotation guys who could help them who also will pass through waivers. But the Blue Jays especially cannot wait around long since they’re 5.5 behind the Yankees. And the Red Sox should not expect their offense to bail them out every night.

Everyone else gets a no decision; they neither significantly improved nor worsened their chances this year or the next at the deadline. At least it doesn’t seem that way. Time will tell if the small moves, or no moves was actually the right decision. After all, while it’s fun to look at the immediate future, three years from now will be here sooner than you like to think.

Trade Analysis; July 26- 30

Abreu Trade Analysis

July 31st Analysis

Trading ARod: The Full Rundown

2006-07-31T02:57:00.000-04:00

Recent Development 1: The Yankees acquired Bobby Abreu over the weekend, and he will probably improve their offense significantly.

Recent Development 2: They also acquired Cory Lidle in the deal. Replacing Sir Sidney with Lidle is a solid upgrade.

Question arising from these developments: If the Yankees win the 2006 World Series, will the Scott Brosius Fan Club, aka the psychotic wing of Yankees fandom, finally consider Alex Rodriguez worthy of his roster spot, or will they claim the team won in spite of him?

All along, despite mediot goading*, the chances of the Yankees trading Rodriguez have been about the same as the chances Lindsay Lohan will call my cell tonight: technically possible, but, in reality, impossible. Why should they trade him? He slumped badly in June, and any smug bassbowl trying to justify the booing at that time would only have to insist that New York fans are a "what have you done for me lately?" crowd. However, the guy has been tremendous in July, walloping the ball to a 308/388/549 clip. The booing is uncalled for, and it's shameful (or hilarious, I guess, depending on your point of view) how a minority of Yankees fans are making the whole group look like a bunch of yokels.

ANYWAY, just to nail the point home, here, in alphabetical order by team name, is a list of what each MLB team would have to give up for ARod in trade. Zach, Ben, and I have already gone through the Mariners, Mets, and Giants, respectively, and you can follow the links below to more detailed reasoning for those trade proposals.

So, members of the Scott Brosius Fan Club (he of the career 95 OPS+), so that I'm clear, none of these deals will ever happen. You're "stuck" with ARod. Get over yourselves. The rest of MLB fandom hates you with a passion.

The The Angels Angels of Anaheim
Angels get: ARod
Yankees get: Howie Kendrick, Ervin Santana, Scot Shields, and Joe Saunders
Instant offense for the Halos, while the Yanks get a rookie replacement 2B/3B, two MLB-ready starters who would actually improve the back end of the rotation this year, and one of the top three setup guys in the majors.

Astros
Astros get: ARod
Yankees get: Roy Oswalt, Jason Lane, and Felipe Paulino
ARod plays SS, the offense is suddenly one of the best in the NL, and while losing Oswalt is huge, in order to get ARod now and for the future, they'll take their chances with Clemens and Pettitte leading the rotation. The Yankees would get a top-flight starter who is locked up for at least one more year, a slugging outfielder who could be the first bat off the bench, and a raw minor league fireballer.

Athletics
A's get: ARod, $8 million
Yankees get: Barry Zito, Dan Johnson, Jay Payton, and Mark Ellis
ARod plays SS, Crosby moves to 2B, and Daric Barton takes over at 1B with Swisher moving back to the OF full time. For the Yankees, Zito shores up the rotation, Johnson replaces Andy Phillips, Payton starts in LF until Matsui gets back, at which point he replaces Melky Cabrera off the bench, and Mark Ellis takes over 3B and hits ninth (which is a huge downgrade offensively, but the rest of the upgrade might make it worthwhile for this season).

Blue Jays
Blue Jays get: ARod
Yankees get: Dustin McGowan, Alex Rios, Reed Johnson, Eric Hinske, and Ted Lilly.
New York's OF problem gets solved right away with two guys who will also command a pretty penny in trade talks after the season, Abreu can even DH until either Matsui or Sheffield gets back, Lilly is a big improvement on the back of the rotation, McGowan is a highly-touted pitching prospect, and Hinske is a good-enough 3B stopgap (who can't hit lefties to save his life) until Eric Duncan is ready. For Toronto, ARod plays SS, Aaron Hill takes over 2B permanently, Frank Catalanotto mans RF, and Wayne Lydon comes up to play LF.

Braves
Braves get: ARod
Yankees get: Tim Hudson, Edgar Renteria, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia
You know what? I'm tired of justifying all these trades, and I'm on deadline. You can figure out how it benefits each team, and call shenanigans if I put together a stupid deal from here on out.

Brewers
Brewers get: ARod
Yankees get: Geoff Jenkins, Doug Davis, Dana Eveland, Jeff Cirillo, and Rickie Weeks

Cardinals
Cards get: ARod
Yankees get: Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, Jim Edmonds, Scott Speizio, and Colby Rasmus

Cubs
Cubs get: ARod
Yankees get: Aramis Ramirez, Mark Prior, Scott Eyre, and Juan Pierre

Devil Rays
Rays get: ARod
Yankees get: Jorge Cantu, Rocco Baldelli, Elijah Dukes, J.P. Howell, and Edwin Jackson

Diamondbacks
DBacks get: ARod
Yankees get: Shawn Green, Luis Gonzalez, Orlando Hudson, Miguel Batista, Luis Vizcaino, and Jorge Julio

Dodgers
Dodgers get: ARod
Yankees get: Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Wilson Betemit, and Kenny Lofton

Giants

Indians
Tribe gets: ARod
Yankees get: Jake Westbrook, Jason Michaels, Rafael Betancourt, Casey Blake, and Jeremy Guthrie

Mariners

Marlins
Fish get: ARod
Yankees get: Josh Willingham, Dan Uggla, Anibal Sanchez, Scott Olsen, and Joe Borowski

Mets

Nationals
Nats get: ARod
Yankees get: Soriano, Vidro, ~~Bill Bray~~ and Alex Escobar

Orioles
O's get: ARod
Yankees get: Tejada, Erik Bedard

Padres
Pad People get: ARod
Yankees get: Dave Roberts, Mike Piazza, Woody Williams, Bobby Hill, and Adrian Gonzalez

Phillies
Phils get: ARod
Yankees get: Jon Lieber, Aaron Rowand, Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell

Pirates
Bucs get: ARod
Yankees get: Freddy Sanchez, Craig Wilson, Oliver Perez, Ian Snell, and Mike Gonzalez

Rangers
Rangers get: Three hundred gun-totin' vigilantes storming Arlington
Yankees get: Brian Cashman hanging up the phone, debating whether or not to send choppers for Jon Daniels's body

Red Sox
BoSox get: ARod, Jason Giambi
Yankees get: Manny, Papi
(If Ben Broussard can take down USSMariner, then this trade might collapse the entire interweb.)

Reds
Reds get: ARod
Yankees get: Ryan Freel, Junior, Bronson Arroyo, and Bill Bray

Rockies
Rox get: ARod
Yankees get: Clint Barmes, Garrett Atkins, Aaron Cook, Brian Fuentes, and Todd Helton

Royals
Royals get: You get nothing! You lose! Good day sir!
Yankees get: N/A

Tigers
Tigers get: ARod
Yankees get: Carlos Guillen, Kenny Rogers, Magglio, and Zach Miner

Twins
Twinkies get: ARod
Yankees get: Brad Radke, Boof Bonser, Jason Kubel, Jason Bartlett, and Michael Cuddyer

White Sox
ChiSox get: ARod
Yankees get: Javier Vazquez, Scott Podsednik, Ray Liotta, and Josh Fields

You still with me? Congratulations. Without even taking into account salary considerations, you see what a foolish move it would be to trade ARod.

*I couldn't pass this up: Steve Phillips did a 5 Questions bit for the New York Post. The logic he gave for trading ARod is as follows: This has been going on for two years. The problem is that reality doesn't mean anything. There is this notion that he never hits in the clutch. There is this notion that A-Rod never makes a play. He has actually hit with runners in scoring position. I just don't think people are ever going to give him a break in New York... I just don't see how he is going to get out of [the abuse] in New York. If being the MVP, if being the Player of the Month, doesn't do it, then he is not going to do it. What happens is you see his performance start to deteriorate because he does care and he wants to earn the fans' respect. In other words, ARod's been abused by fans for two years and has been the AL MVP and won Player of the Month awards, but the booing obviously affects him. Yes, Steve. Clearly, he's just a shell of a baseball player because of the booing.

Monday Madness

2006-07-31T00:16:00.000-04:00

We're in the home strech now. July 31st is here and the trade winds are blowing. Keep it here at Sportszilla for all your trade deadline analysis.

Cardinals get RHP Jorge Sosa

Braves get RHP Rich Scalamandre

For those who don’t believe luck plays a role in the game, look at Jorge Sosa from 2005 to 2006. Sosa’s K/9 went from 5.71 to 5.98. His K/BB went from 1.33 to 1.81 while his GB/FB remained at .81. Yet last year his ERA was 2.55 in 134.0 innings while this year it sits at 5.46 in 87.1 innings. Sosa isn’t any different than last year except his luck finally ran out. He’s not a very good player and the Cardinals likely can find better.

The Braves get a 25 year old righty in Scalamndre who has struck out a batter per nine in AA and AAA this year. The kid has shown solid stuff, but has poor control as his 16/6 K/BB ratio in 16 AAA innings indicates. Last year at high A, he walked 3.64/9 as well. He’s not a star, but for a pitcher like Sosa who was already designated for assignment, it’s more than the Braves could have hoped to acquire.

Royals get 1B Ryan Shealy and RHP Scott Dohmann

Rockies LHP Jeremy Affedlt and RHP Denny Bautista

With Doug Mientkiewicz at first the Royals needed an upgrade. Shealy supposedly has great potential, but he’s done it at AAA Colorado Springs where the balls flies out better than Coors and he’s 27, so he’s not exactly young. Still, he’s hit everywhere he’s been and the Royals need to turn over their roster. So it’s not a terrible deal for them, since it also doesn’t block Justin Huber. (Buddy Bell does though)The 28 year old righty Dohmann can mow people down with a 8.03 K/9 but has no control with a 1.47 K/BB. He’s got a 6.20 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 24.2 IP. Dohmann’s not young but can’t be much worse than the relievers the Royals are chucking out there.

Shealy had no role on Rockies with Helton going nowhere and Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday in the outfield. They get a nice return here in Affeldt who will bolster their pen and the 25 year old Bautista is a project for down the road. A nice deal for both teams.

Dodgers get 2B Julio Lugo

Devil Rays get 2B Joel Guzman, Sergio Pedroza

The Dodgers clearly don’t read this blog. They get a very good player in Lugo, with a .871 OPS at short. Lugo will move to second since Furcal is there. He also made Caesar Izturis even more expendable. Five games back isn’t out of it, but the Dodgers are 50-55 here. Does Greg Maddux and Julio Lugo make this team much better than they yesterday? The Dodgers better resign Lugo in the offseason; otherwise this trade was a waste.

The 20 year old Guzman has posted OPS numbers above 800 the last two years. This year he’s got a mark of .803 at AAA Las Vegas. He’s got solid upside, so by himself it’s not a bad swap for free agent to be Lugo. Pedroza in his second year of pro ball, playing at the SAL and the Florida State League (Mid and High A) The 22 year old outfielder had .998 OPS this year at mid A, and struggled though in a short ten game stint in high A. He’s old for the level and the Rays have better prospects. Still not a bad haul for a free agent to be.

Dodgers get RHP Greg Maddux

Cubs get SS Caesar Izturis

The Dodgers are done. It’s not that they gave up a piece of their future in Izturis, who is out of a job now that the Dodgers have Furcal and Betemit, but still. Couldn’t they have gotten something more back? Maddux isn’t done, but he’s not a difference maker anymore. His K/9 is 5.35 and while his pinpoint control remains (3.52 K/BB) he’s not much more than a fourth starter. His high GB/FB (1.99) might make him a third.

Izturis has struggled this year after recovering from Tommy John surgery last year. (Yes non pitchers do have the surgery) Well “struggle” isn’t really fair; his OPS of .655 is higher than his .624 mark from last year. He’s really not good, but someone probably else probably overvalued him. The Maddux limited their market, so I’m not sure they could have done better here. Still Izturis isn’t exactly more deserving of playing time of Ronny Cedeno.

This is one of those trades which will likely see no benefit to either team.

Rangers get RHP Kip Wells

Pirates get RHP Jesse Chavez

Wells has stumbled since returning from a blood clot. With a 3.96 K/9 and a horrific .89 K/BB in 36.1 innings, he didn’t look to have much value. Wells is an awful pitcher at this point and not worth trotting out there when you’ve can’t afford to lose games. The Rangers would have been better off not bothering with him at all.

Chavez struggled a great deal last year at AA but has rebounded this year with a K/BB of 70/28 in 57.2 innings. With numbers like that, he looks like a possible relief candidate down the road. Actually a decent haul for pitcher who never was very good and is likely done in Wells.

Yankees get OF Craig Wilson

Pirates get RHP Shawn Chacon

The Yankees went shopping in the state of Pennsylvania and apparently it’s cheap. The Yankees get a solid fourth outfielder in Wilson (817 OPS) of who can slot in right now over Melky Cabrera in left or play first base to let Giambi DH.

The Pirates get… one of the worst pitchers of 2006. What the hell is Dave Littlefield thinking? He hands away Oliver Perez for a dime a dozen corner outfielder and then trades Wilson for a guy who is beyond useless, because he makes over the major league minimum. They would have been better off getting one of those garbage prospects the Phillies got for Abreu. Dave Littlefield did not distinguish himself today. In fact he probably deserves to be canned.

Mets get RHP Roberto Hernandez, LHP Oliver Perez

Pirates get OF Xavier Nady

With the freak injury of Duaner Sanchez, a separated shoulder suffered in a cab accident Sunday night, the Mets needed another arm for their pen. They get one in Roberto Hernandez, who saved his career last season at Shea. His numbers are down from last year (K/9 from 7.88 to 6.91, K/BB from 2.18 to 1.38) so the Mets would be wise to use Aaron Heilman in the 8th inning now. They also should give more of an opportunity to Heath Bell, but that’s not likely. They also get a reclamation project in Perez, who two years ago was one of the brightest young pitchers in baseball. He won’t help this year but is a good gamble down the road. Also, it will be interesting to see what Lastings Milledge does now that he’ll likely get an opportunity to play in the bigs.

Nady is a solid corner outfielder. Nothing special here. It’s very odd the Pirates could not get more, especially since some team would probably gamble a B- level prospect for Perez alone.

Padres get 2B Todd Walker

Cubs get RHP Jose Cerda

Walker is a decent player and they didn’t give up much here. Apparently Walker will play some third base for the Padres. He’s not a huge upgrade, but isn’t really worse than Vinny Castilla. At 33, he’s a decent gamble.

Cerda is in rookie ball, with an ERA over 5.00. Don’t look for him for a long time, if ever.

Rangers get 1B/DH Matt Stairs

Royals get RHP Joselo Diaz

More bats for the Rangers, who seem to have found pitching was far too overpriced. Stairs with an .781 OPS isn’t much of an upgrade though. Why not just give Jason Botts a chance, unless they just plan to use Stairs as a bat off the bench. They didn’t give up anything, so it’s not a terrible trade. But if Stairs does become their full time DH, the Rangers would be better off playing Botts.

Well, well. The second piece the Mets gave up for Victor Zambrano. He’s been striking out a ton of guys this year; 75 in 63.2 innings. But he also walks a ton, 42 this year. He’s got a live arm, but his control will always be an issue. He's 26 now, so he's not much of a prospect.

Reds get RHP Kyle Lohse

Twins get RHP Zach Ward

What’s with the Reds and picking up former Twins’ busts? First Joe Mays, now Lohse. The 27 year old righty has been on the decline since a decent 2003 season, posting a 7.07 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 63.2 IP this year. His K rate is okay at 6.50 but his K/BB is a lousy 1.84 considering he’s a flyball pitcher (.95 GB/FB). Yes he’s moving to the National League with no DH, but he’s also going to one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Don’t see much upside for the Reds here. They seem intent on getting pitching, no matter how mediocre to terrible it actually is.

The 22 year old Ward has posted a 95/37 in 114 IP games for low A Dayton, surrendering just two homers in that span. Though he’s a 2005 draft pick, he’s a little old for the level he’s at. With those peripherals and his 2.29 ERA he’s shown promise but he’s no future ace. Still even if he becomes a fourth or fifth guy down the road, that’s still fair return for a borderline major league pitcher like Lohse.

Tigers get 1B Sean Casey

Pirates get RHP Brian Rogers

Casey is having his typical Sean Casey season, which is excellent OBP and useless poor .408 slugging for a first baseman. The Tigers are probably somewhat fearful of paying for big sluggers in that spacious park, but Casey might be a little bit of an overreaction in the other direction. Having a high on base guy at first is less valuable than other places. They certainly can’t DH him, right?

Rogers is a 24 year old relief prospect. Up until this year at various levels of A-Ball, Rogers had a 8.55 K.9 and 3.02 K/BB which is okay. This year he’s had a 62/14 K/BB in 60.0 innings at AA Erie. After a season like this it’s possible he makes it down the road as a reliever. For a slap hitting first baseman, it’s not a bad deal.

The most surprising aspect of this trade is that the Tigers sent Chris Shelton to AAA to make room for Casey. I know most of it came early, but he had splits of .277/.343/.476/.819. Casey has an OPS of .785. Thus, the Tigers look to have made a bad move, though it isn’t because of who they gave up, but who they gave up on.

Reds get LHP Rheal Cormier

Phillies get RHP Justin Germano

Didn’t the Reds already address their bullpen? This just shows what a miserable trade that deal with the Nationals was earlier this month, since they have to add another pitcher. Cormier has a 13/13 K/BB this year in 34.0 IP, which isn’t pretty, despite having a 1.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Interestingly enough, Cormier is not a lefty specialist, at least not this year. Lefties are hitting .259 against him, righties .197. He’s not a difference maker, he can be an okay reliever. The key is you don’t give up a big time starter for a guy like this.

And the Reds didn’t. Germano does have 21.1 innings worth of major league experience with the Padres, coming last year. He is a 23 year old right handed control artist who’s never posted a BB/9 over 2.37 and that was back in 2002 in high A. Over the last few years, he’s been able to keep that number around or below two. However he’s not a big strike out guy, posting a 7.35 K/9 over the course of his minor league career. It looks as though Germano could be a fourth or fifth starter in the bigs. That means he’s a better prospect for a lefty specialist than anything they got back for Abreu; which is pretty damn pathetic.

Cardinals get 2B Ron Belliard

Indians get 2B/SS Hector Luna

The 31 year old Belliard’s best season came in his second year in the bigs, with the Brewers in 1999 when he posted an .808 OPS in 457 ABs. Since then he’s consistently been a mid to upper .700s OPS guy, who is mediocre with the glove. Basically you can expect splits of .280/.340/.430 with Belliard. He’s your average second baseman.

At 26 Luna has posted a .291/.355/.417/.772 split this season in 223 ABs, by far his best in his three year career. While he’ll be entering his age 27 season, don’t expect much improvement. Luna’s highest OPS in the minors was a 738 mark in high A in 2002. In fact, when you look at his stat lines, he looks remarkably like… Ron Belliard. Belliard had better years in the minors, but at this stage it’s not likely he’s going to turn into an 800+ OPS guy and the next time Luna does it, it will be a first.

Essentially the Cardinals swapped a potentially average second baseman for a consistently average one. It’s not a difference maker deal, since the Cardinals’ lineup is still suspect outside of Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen. But they didn’t give up anything of much value here. Cleveland can hope for lightning in a bottle, but it’s likely they’ll have to turn elsewhere for their 2007 second baseman.

Analysis: Bobby Abreu Trade

Analysis: 7/26- 7/30 Trade Round Up

Phillies Trash Is Yankee Gold

2006-07-30T17:59:00.000-04:00

Sportszilla’s trade deadline coverage continues. You can find analysis of some of the earlier deals. Keep it here for all your analysis through tomorrow’s deadline.

Yankees receive OF Bobby Abreu and RHP Corey Lidle

The Phillies got back SS CJ Henry, LHP Matt Smith, C Jesus Sanchez, RHP Carlos Monasterios

The Yankees get their man, proving once again that money can go a long way to buying a championship. Granted the 32 year old’s power has evaporated, but he’s still a damn good on base guy, getting on at a .427 clip. It goes without saying this is a huge upgrade over both Bernie Williams and Melky Cabrera. Not that the Yankees needed offense; they were the third highest scoring team in the AL. Abreu might continue in the three spot, or he might move up to two. Either way he improves a very good offense.

Corey Lidle might be the key component in the trade however. Lidle’s K rate has jumped to 7.04 this year, his career mark is 5.68, but his walks have increased as well leaving him with a 2.51 K/BB. His GB/FB is okay at 1.57, but in Philly where homers rule, that wasn’t going to fly. Overall that left him with a 4.74 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He’ll be helped by moving to Yankee Stadium which is a better park to pitch in than Citizen’s Bank, but hurt by the DH. Overall, posting an ERA in the low to mid 4.00’s is probably where Lidle should end up. That represents a huge upgrade over even Jaret Wright and certainly over Sidney Ponson.

And what did the Phillies net back for one of the better outfielders in the game? I’ll let the answer come from a Phillies fan:

“I think the Phillies are (expletive deleted) stupid. They just gave up on the season”

I couldn’t phrase it much better than that. Thank you to WNYU Cheap Seats’ host Rachel Steinberg for her always colorful and exuberant commentary.

Last year shortstop CJ Henry posted an .714 OPS in the Gulf Coast league. Things have gotten even worse for the twenty year old in the South Atlantic League (Mid A), with an 643 OPS in 263 ABs this season. Also distressing is his 31/84 BB/K ratio, down from a 17/34 mark of a year ago. Could the former first round pick find himself? He is only twenty so yes, he could. But he’s a long way off from being a big leaguer now.

Smith, a lefty reliever, is 27 and a decent candidate for the pen with his high strikeout totals. He’s averaged 7.90 K/9 in the minors and has gone up every year to a high of 10.73 last year. This year he’s got an ERA 2.28 with a 1.27 WHIP and a 21/6 K/BB ratio in 23.2 innings. He’s seen 12 innings with the Yankees this year and was not impressive, posting a 9/8 K/BB mark in that time. Overall, he’s potentially decent as a reliever, but nothing to write home about.

The last two prospects are in the rookie Gulf Coast League. The 18 year old catcher Sanchez is hitting just .264/.319/.364/.683. He’s young, but that’s about it when it comes to his upside. Monasterios, 20, has a nice 24/3 K/BB in 30.1 innings this year in seven games. (three starts) Not exactly eye popping numbers there.

So what did the Phillies net here? Nothing but salary relief. And that is atrocious. Is it nice they can dump the 35 million dollars they owe Abreu? Sure, but to get nothing back for him is a poor job.

Meanwhile the Yankees prove that money can still potentially buy you a championship. As Rotoworld mentioned in regards to these rumors late last night, the Yankees will now have a payroll 100 million dollars higher than the next closest team. There is something wrong with that.

But in the end, the only people who care about that are Yankee haters. And there are a lot of them. Still, today a Yankee fan can get giddy. They look to have made themselves the team to beat the AL East.

Trading Places

2006-07-30T03:20:00.000-04:00

With the trade deadline fast approaching, keep it here at Sportszilla for all your trade analysis needs. We’ll look at the major players and minor players in all the trades you care about. Of course, best of all, if you don’t agree with us, you can let us hear about why we’re all a bunch of idiots. Sure you can do that to Jayson Stark or Scott Miller, but will they actually read it and respond? Probably not. Anyway, on to the trades.

Rangers get LF Carlos Lee and OF Nelson Cruz

Brewers get OF Kevin Mench, OF Laynce Nix, RHP Fransico Cordero, LHP Julian Cordero

Most people have criticized the Rangers for trading for hitting when their needs are pitching. Those people are looking at reputation rather than actual facts. As I wrote in my AL West need column, the Rangers have been equally mediocre in runs scored and runs allowed, at the time seventh in both categories. They could have gone either way, but I suggested a bat might be cheaper. And it was; they gave up no one of any real long term importance here. In fact, they still have the prospects to go out and get a pitcher if they so please. Plus they also got back Cruz, who while 26 years old, still has a fair bit of upside and could replace Lee should he depart after the season.

For the Brewers, once Lee rejected their contract extension, it made little sense to keep him. However, being as though they aren’t completely out if it, they went with acquiring a group of adequate but not spectacular major leaguers. Cordero will help their beleaguered pen while Mench can be a solid contributor in their offense, especially since Ned Yost figures to jerk him around less than Buck Showalter did. Nix hasn’t done anything in the bigs but he is still 25. Julian Cordero is still a long way off, though he looks like a back end starter or reliever at best.

You have to like this trade from a Rangers perspective because they didn’t give up anything irreplaceable for a potential difference maker like Lee. Meanwhile the Brewers are taking a chance that Mench and/or Cordero can regain the ability that made both such hot commodities just the offseason before last. Sometimes a change of scenery, a fresh voice and start can do a lot for a player. Still, one wonders if the Brewers would have been better off getting prospects back. Would the one or two decent (probably not front line) guys they’d have gotten back made a difference down the road?

Guess we’ll never know.

Giants get LHP Mike Stanton

Nationals get RHP Sharion Martis

This has all the makings of a deal that could look awful in a couple of years for the Giants. Martis, if you recognize the name, is the Netherlands pitcher who threw a seven inning no hitter in the World Baseball Classic. This season he’s posted a K/BB of 66/21 in 76.2 innings at mid A ball. That’s not bad for a kid who’s just 19 years old.

Meanwhile the Giants get back a guy with a 4.47 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Oh but isn’t Stanton just a situational lefty? Well I guess, but lefties are batting .263 off him, righties .284. He’s also faced more righties than lefties this year, so I’m not sure where this situational lefty tag comes from except that’s what people think Stanton should be. But… he’s not even good for that role!

What a terrible trade for the Giants. It’s one thing to go for it and another to get a guy who isn’t any good to begin with. Note to Brian Sabean: Old/veteran does not necessarily equal good. Watch out Giant fans, none of your prospects are safe. Meanwhile I might have to take back all the bad things I’ve said about Jim Bowden.

The Brewers get 3B David Bell

The Phillies get RHP Wilfrido Laureano

There was a time were David Bell was an underrated commodity at third. We are no longer living in that age. This season he’s posting an OPS of .743 which isn’t good for a third baseman with fourteen errors. In fact, it stinks.

It’s not the best of gambles, even though Laureano doesn’t look that great. He’s got a nice K rate, 62 batters in 60.2 innings, but he’s also walked 34 in the same number of frames. He’s 22, in the South Atlantic League (mid A) and already a reliever so he doesn’t look like much. Then again, neither does Bell.

Braves get RHP Danys Baez and 3B Willy Aybar

Dodgers get 3B/SS Wilson Betemit

Reportedly, the Yankees offered Scott Proctor straight up for Betemit and the Braves shot it down. They got better value in this deal, but not by much. The 3rd baseman/shortstop has played well whenever given the chance but never could crack the lineup with Chipper Jones blocking him. That being said, the Braves should have done better than a reliever, who not only has been mediocre this year, but can walk this winter. In addition, haven’t the Braves noticed the real crux of their problems is in their starting rotation? In this series against the Mets, they had Horatio Ramirez fail to get out of the fourth inning and Tim Hudson give up nine runs (all earned) the next day. Baez and Bob Wickman can close games fine, but what good are they if they always come in when the Braves are trailing?

Not a bad haul here for the Dodgers. Betemit has posted OPS of .794 and .841over the last two years as a part time player. He’ll be entering his age 27 season next year, so he could be poised for a huge breakout. On the other hand, Aybar, despite being just 23, has never posted an OPS over 775 at any minor league level. He did have a nice 86 AB stint with the Dodgers last year but it’s not likely he posts an .901 OPS again anytime soon.

Overall, the Dodgers got back the best player in the trade, which is a bad sign for the Braves when they’re supposed to be the buyers. Meanwhile the Braves dealt away arguably their best chip and still don’t have an answer for what they can do about that rotation behind John Smoltz. That is why it’s looking more and more like Atlanta will be in the unusual position of being on the outside looking in come October.

Mariners get 1B/DH Ben Broussard

Indians get OF Shin-Soo Choo

The Mariners get a guy who absolutely murders right handed pitching in Broussard; to an OPS of .973. He can play first base or DH, meaning they’ve upgraded themselves significantly over the disaster that was Carl Everett. They have his former Cleveland mate, Eduardo Perez to play against lefties in the platoon, so all an all, the Mariners have upgraded themselves.

But at what cost? Choo had stalled a bit at AAA, since a 24 year old repeating the level posting an .892 OPS in hitter friendly Pacific Coast isn’t spectacular. Still the Mariners have outfield problems, especially in center. Even if Choo couldn’t play center, which is the position he’s listed at, he might have been valuable down the line in left. Zach pointed out to me that the Mariners saw him as a corner outfield prospect who couldn’t hit lefties. So they just traded him for a 29 year old first baseman who can’t hit lefties either.

Maybe Choo didn’t fit into the Mariners plans. I just feel they could have done better than Broussard. Platooning 1st base types aren’t that hard to find. This deal makes more sense if you honestly believe the Mariners are in the race. But even at three games back, I don’t.

Keep it here at Sportszilla, your place for baseball trading deadline analysis where we’ll be on major deals (and probably some of the minor ones) that go down before the 4:00 deadline on Monday.

Minor League Stats found at the Baseball Cube

Do- Over

2006-07-28T02:29:00.000-04:00

As July 31st rolls around, general managers, sportswriters and fans alike starting thinking about one word.

“Trade”

Who is going to make the move that puts their team over the top? Which squad is going to reach for it but come up short, giving up their future in the process? What team is going to be the big winner? The big loser? Baseball waits with baited breath to see the destinations of Alfonso Soriano, Bobby Abreu and Barry Zito, to name a few.

Of course, it’s rare a trade’s result is known right away. Since deadline deals frequently involve prospects, it normally takes two or three years before a true winner or loser can be determined. Often people say five years is the best grace period to allow before evaluating a move. But there are rare times where a result is clear quickly. Usually those trades are tremendously lopsided in one way.

Today we take a look back at the last five years and check out what were the worst, or most lopsided trades during that span. Four of the five deals occurred quite recently, in the last three years. Three occurred in the last two years with one of the trades happening this year. The results of the other two were pretty clear after year one. In both cases, year two just made it more obvious who was the big loser in those deals.

And so let’s begin with a move most people thought had a clear winner at the time. They were right, though they got the winner wrong.

5. The Oakland A’s send starting pitcher Mark Mulder to the St. Louis Cardinals for starting pitcher Danny Haren, reliever Kiko Calero and minor league catcher Daric Barton

For this to be understood as a bad trade we must enter a Twilight Zone realm to many sportswriters and fans, one where a pitcher’s won/loss record is of little statistical importance. Thus submitted for your approval: the National League leader in wins; Jason Marquis, he of a 5.62 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Yet he has 12 wins. Why? Because he plays for the Cardinals, who score a ton of runs because of a guy name Pujols.

Those same Cardinals are the reason Mulder posted 17 wins last season with a 3.69 ERA. His K/9 was terrible at 4.87 with a K/BB of 1.59. His saving grace was the ground ball out; he induced 2.74 times more ground balls than fly balls. But he was still outperformed by Haren who had a 3.73 ERA, in a harder league for pitchers. In addition he had a K/9 of 6.76 and a K/BB of 3.08 with an OPS against of .709, compared to Mulder’s .745. This again, is in the American League with the DH. This season, Haren has continued to improve, posting a better K/9 (6.86) and better K/BB (3.58) with a similar ERA (3.89) Meanwhile, Mulder has fallen off the map with a 6.09 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. To top it all off, he’s been on the shelf for over a month, though considering how bad he’s been this year, that might be a good thing. Oh yeah, Haren is 25 and years away from free agency. Mulder is a free agent after the season, and the Cardinals will likely lose him for nothing. Or they could sign him, despite the fact he’s been declining for four years now. But then, that didn’t stop the Cards from trading for him, so why should it stop them from re-signing him?

Straight up, Haren for Mulder looks like a terrible deal. But the A’s also got reliever Kiko Calero in the trade. Last season Calero was very good, posting a 3.23 ERA along with a K/9 of 8.41 and a K/BB of 2.89 in 55.2 innings. This season he’s been even better, for while his K/BB has declined to 2.52, his K/9 is an excellent 10.10 per nine. His ERA stands at 2.85 in 41.0 innings, making him Oakland’s most reliable man out the pen.

And just to top it off, the Cardinals also gave up young catcher Daric Barton. While he’s stalled a bit at AAA, he posted OPS numbers over 900 in his last three stops (mid A, high A and AA). Plus he’s just 21 years old, meaning he’s got time to mature. This season he’s not had any power, but still has a .389 OBP. Those numbers will be less valuable at first base where he’ll likely play, but again, he’s young.

All three players dealt for Mulder currently have more value than him, and amazingly that’s happened within one year of the trade. That’s a bad sign for the Cardinals, and a strike against Walt Jocketty. Meanwhile, Billy Beane is someone to avoid when making trades, as can be seen by the next deal in this ranking.

4. Kansas City Royals send outfielder Johnny Damon and minor league infielder Mark Ellis to the Oakland A’s.

The Oakland A’s send minor infielder Angel Berroa and catcher AJ Hinch to the Royals and outfielder Ben Grieve to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

The Devil Rays send starting pitcher Corey Lidle to the A’s and reliever Roberto Hernandez to the Royals:

The oldest deal on here, happening before the 2001 season, so it just qualified. This wasn’t a good trade for the Devil Rays, as Lidle went on to be a fairly productive member of the A’s rotation for the next few years while Grieve continued his descent from stardom to oblivion. But this was a disastrous deal for the Royals, who ended up dealing arguably the best two players in the trade. What they got back was Berroa who had a decent rookie year and has sucked ever since, AJ Hinch, who never amounted to anything along with old man Roberto Hernandez. Amazingly, Hernandez is currently doing the best of the three, but in Pittsburgh.

All that for Damon, who while not doing all that much for the A’s, was at the time a top notch centerfielder. It isn’t that the A’s got a ton out of the deal; it’s that Kansas City should have been able to pull a useful player back in the trade. Right now all they have to show for it is a shortstop who’s got an OPS at .630. Of course when you get Allard Baird and Billy Beane together, what do you expect to happen? It’s arguable the Royals got fleeced even more for Carlos Beltran, but since Mark Teahan has shown some upside, it didn’t make the list yet.

The operative word is “yet”.

3. Washington Nationals send relievers Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, shortstop Royce Clayton, minor league pitcher Daryl Thompson and infielder Brandon Harris to the Cincinnati Reds for shortstop Felipe Lopez, outfielder Austin Kearns and reliever Ryan Wagner

This trade just happened and it’s already three on the list. It’s possible we’ll all be made to look like morons after a year or so, but it’s hardly likely. The best case for the Reds; the deal blows up on both sides with no one panning out. But the reality is even if Kearns, Lopez and Wagner never amount to anything, the Reds could have gotten more for the three than two middle relievers, a middling hanger on at short, an average prospect with arm problems and a backup. Not only that, but neither Majewski nor Bray projects to be anything but a middle reliever at best. If they pulled back a live relief arm who could one day close, that would have been one thing. Instead they got two guys who probably could have been found on the free agent market looking for an even million bucks for a couple of years. Maybe even less than that.

It’s one thing to get taken to school by Billy Beane. But when you get fleeced by Jim Bowden, it might be time to re-evaluate your career choice.

2. The New York Mets send minor league pitchers Scott Kazmir and Josselo Diaz to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for starting pitcher Victor Zambrano and reliever Bartolome Fortunato

What makes this trade so bad isn’t just the talent surrendered, but the fact that anyone with half a brain at the time knew it was a mistake. I still remember Mets’ beat reporter Ed Coleman on WFAN announcing the trade to Mike and the Mad Dog. He was trying to defend it, but his voice told you all you needed to know. It was a needless swap of talent for a guy who was a fourth starter at the time, at best. Besides that, the Mets were under .500 and seven games back of the Braves. They weren’t in the race, so why were they dealing a top 25 prospect? Kazmir had just thrown a one hitter at AA. The lefty would find his way to bigs a week later. Meanwhile to add injury to insult, Zambrano found his way to D/L in roughly the same time. Oh yeah, and the Mets finished last in the National League East.

And the trade is now a colossal flop. Kazmir is on the verge of stardom while Zambrano’s elbow exploded. That elbow, which was bothering him WHEN the Mets made the trade. This trade is so bad, words aren’t enough to really describe it. It changed an organization and gave it a black eye it’s still recovering from.

This is a message for Jim Duquette: it’s one thing to get fleeced by Jim Bowden. He might be intimidating when intoxicated. But to be embarrassed by Chuck LaMarr, who might be the worst GM this side of Allard Baird, that’s a sign you need to re-evaluate your career choice.

And people wonder why Mets fans have a love affair with Omar Minaya.

1. The San Francisco Giants send reliever Joe Nathan, minor league pitchers Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser to the Minnesota Twins for catcher AJ Pierzynski

The Kazmir trade by all rights deserves the top spot. It was a bad trade that didn’t just end up horribly, it was an awful trade when it went down and everyone knew it. But when a team gives up this much for a Zambrano- esque flop, it doesn’t matter how the deal was perceived at the time. It’s just horrid.

Basically, the Giants dealt arguably the best young arm in baseball, a serviceable one and a top notch reliever for a clubhouse cancer. Now look, Pierzynski wasn’t a bad player; but he was coming off a season where his OPS was .824. Solid for a catcher no doubt, but worth a good arm and two good prospects? He might not even have been worth Joe Nathan at the time, who was coming off a year where he went 12-4 (out of the pen mind you) with a 2.96 ERA. Even better was his 9.46 K/9 and 2.52 K/BB in 79.0 IP that year. But to give up Liriano to boot? There’s just no way that trade is justifiable. Oh and Pierzynski had an OPS of .729 in his one season with the Giants. Awful, just awful.

Think the Liriano would look good in the Giants rotation over Jamey Wright? How about Nathan in for Armando Benitez or anyone else in that horror show? And let’s not even mention Bonser, who probably would be in the rotation now.

The Mets traded an ace for a dud. The Giants traded an ace, a stopper and back end guy for one. And that is precisely why they are number one, having clearly made the worst baseball trade in the last five years.

Still Brian Sabean does have a decent track record, so while he doesn’t get a pass, he doesn’t deserve to lose his job over this. Still Brian, don’t go and trade Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez for Freddy Garcia, Scott Podsednik and Neal Cotts on Monday.

The Sportszilla crew does not want to have to talk David down from the top of the Golden Gate Bridge.

Things to Keep an Eye On...

2006-07-28T01:46:00.000-04:00

From September till the end of January, my Sundays will once again be dominated by the National Football League. I am at a loss of words when it comes to describing the thrill of watching the game. Anyway, as training camps are opening up this weekend, there are a few storylines that I am keeping an eye on.

Mike Martz: Detroit Lions Offensive Coordinator
People hated him as a head coach and many were happy to see him go. Now he returns to being an offensive mastermind as he tries to figure out how to get production out of the three high first round choices at wide receiver. Roy Williams has been okay but Charles Rogers and Mike Williams have been awful. Also throw into the mix running back Kevin Jones who took a step back last season. Martz also needs to find a quarterback from the likes of Josh McCown and Jon Kitna.

Ron Mexico and the West Coast Offense
They typically say that a quarterback really gets comfortable in his third year in the west coast offense. Well, this is year number three for Michael Vick so will he show that he is really is a quarterback who happens to be really athletic or a freakish athlete who plays quarterback? We will also get an idea if Michael Jenkins and Roddy White are actually good.

Can The New Skins Gel?
No team made as many impact moves as the Washington Redskins. But Daniel Snyder has tried this before and it blew up in his face. Will Lloyd, Randle El, Moss, and Portis all be satisfied with how many times they touch the ball? We’ll see. How much does Brunell have left in the tank or are we finally going to see Jason Campbell?

Time for Woodson to Prove His Worth
After years of pouting, Charles Woodson is finally out of Oakland and finally has his contract with the Packers. Let’s see if he’s actually worth the money or if injuries are going to kick in again.

The NFL’s Version of the Portland Jail Blazers
Which got more coverage? Carson Palmer’s rehab or the run-ins with the law? I’m thinking more of the later as players like Odell Thurman, Frostee Rucker, and especially Chris Henry all getting into trouble. I wonder if Marvin Lewis can get these guys to channel that onto the football field instead of off.

Reggie Bush
The contract talks are dominating the headlines in New Orleans and with Vince Young signing a deal that could potentially pay him more money that top pick Mario Williams, it just adds another twist into the story. But I’m more interested in seeing how new head coach Sean Payton gets the ball in his hands. You can count on seeing him in the slot and split out but in order for him to get comfortable with the sets, he needs to get in.

Farewell Jimmy
Jimmy Smith has retired and the Jaguars need to figure out who is going to be their top wideout. They can choose from such giants as Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, and Ernest Wilford. Keep an eye on rookie tight end Marcedes Lewis too.

And Finally…
Terrell Owens in Dallas
The Eagles Search for a Wide Receiver
Daunte Culpepper’s rehab
LaVar Arrington wearing Big Blue
Steve McNair in Baltimore
What does Brett have left in the tank?
The Browns search for LeCharles Bentley’s replacement
Can the Niners move on without Cody Pickett?
Will Sam Madison avoid hitting anymore deer?

Snyder, Ponson and Janssen, Oh My!

2006-07-27T01:28:00.000-04:00

When talking about the American League East contenders, “offensive” is the operative word.

The division features three of the four top scoring teams in the league. The Red Sox are tied with the Cleveland Indians for the top spot at 5.59 runs per game with the Yankees and Blue Jays following respectively at third and fourth. They are one- two- three in on base percentage and both the Sox and Jays are near the top in the league in slugging. All in all, these are three teams who can score with anyone.

Then again, maybe it’s because with the unbalanced schedule, they get to face each other’s pitching a lot. Their pitching staffs are all surprisingly similar in runs allowed per game; the Yankees are at 4.71, the Sox at 4.80 and the Jays at 4.84. While that isn’t terrible, it pales in comparison to the Tigers, Twins and A’s with it being likely at least two of those teams make the postseason.

So it looks as though the three are very similar and in fact their expected win total to this point bares that out. The Sox and Yankees are tied at 57 expected wins, with the Blue Jays at 56. In actuality, the Yankees sit one and a half games back of the Red Sox, with the Jays five and a half behind.

Therefore one big move by any of these teams could break the logjam and separate one from the pack. But just because their overall results are similar does not mean they all need the same thing. Sure they all need pitching; but who needs a starter, while who could do nicely with a reliever? We’ll answer those questions today in the finale of Sportszilla’s look at the needs of the contenders.

Boston Red Sox, 61-39, 1st place AL East:
Curt Schilling has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this year, but with the rest of the Red Sox starters leave a lot to be desired. They’ve already claimed Royals trash once, Kyle Snyder, which is a bad sign for a team in the race. Jason Johnson was so poor after being taken from the Indians, he’s down at AAA. David Wells is trying to bounce back from injury, but cannot be relied upon anymore. Josh Beckett has been victimized by the long ball this year and both Matt Clement and Tim Wakefield are down for at least another month. The Sox next best starter maybe Jonathan Papelbon, but he’s not going to be leaving the closer role any time soon.

Basically, Schilling, Wakefield while healthy, Papelbon and Mike Timlin have been the Sox staff this year. Their offense has held up their end but things must change if Boston wants to beat back the Yankees and Blue Jays. Jon Lester and his miserable control isn’t going to cut it.

However, the Sox do have chips to trade. Lester is one young player who teams might want; minor league reliever Craig Hansen is another. If there is a quality starter to be had at the deadline Theo Epstein has the firepower to bring him in. But is there someone available? Would the Sox try to package the farm for Barry Zito? With the Dodgers collapsing, might Epstein check up on the availability of Brad Penny? Or might they continue with acquiring below average starters for cheap (say Brian Moehler from the Marlins)

Overall, Boston is in the best position to make a trade if one is out there, since they do not have just one prospect to deal like the Yankees. But is that position worth anything in this market? The answer will go a long way to determining whether or not the Sox get the chance to play October baseball.

As a side note, the Yankees picked up Aaron Guiel off the Royals’ waiver wire too. When did KC leftovers suddenly become the main course at the top of the food chain??

New York Yankees, 59-40, 1.5 back of Red Sox, 1st place Wild Card:
Remember that old commercial with Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine beefing up because “chicks dig the long ball”? Well, apparently New York loves homers so much, that hitting slightly less than expected is a reason to deal the farm for Alfonso Soriano and/or Bobby Abreu. It also is a reason to ride Alex Rodriguez until his head literally explodes from the profanity streaming in from all directions.

Right now Jaret Wright, Sidney Ponson, Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small and Kris Wilson should all be buying A-Rod dinner every night to thank him for taking the spotlight off them. His above average offensive play is deflecting their atrocious pitching that wouldn’t cut it at AAA, let alone every fifth day in the bigs. But Yankee fans, those that have a brain, should take heart and realize that most people around the organization see the problem is pitching. That’s why Ponson is here in the first place. Mind you, that’s not exactly the reaction you want, but hey, it’s a start; they’ve recognized there is a problem.

The issue for the Yankees is that their minor league system is lacking in pretty much every way, shape and form. Phillip Hughes has talent, but the Yankees say they will not trade him. Melkey Cabrera could be a batting average guy, but with average speed and below average power, he doesn’t have all that much value. Eric Duncan has salvaged his season at AA, but he isn’t a top prospect anymore; not since he’s repeating the level after struggling last year. So what can the Yankees do?

They could go to the Indians and see what it would take to get Paul Byrd. He’s no ace, but would fill in their fourth starter spot nicely. Odalis Perez would have been a good gamble since the Yankees could have taken his salary, but he’s already been sent to the Royals.

Or, if they wanted to really get gutsy, they could take a huge chance. Though the Cubs are out of it, it’s unlikely they would trade 25 year old fire baller Carlos Zambrano. But what if the Yankees offered Hughes, Chien Ming Wang and Robinson Cano? Yankee fans might think that’s a lot to give up for anyone, but the big righty could easily be the Yankees’ ace for the next seven years. Hughes is a prospect who may or may not pan out, Wang is an average starter at best and Cano might be an above average second baseman offensively. It’s unlikely any amount to what Zambrano is now and should be for years to come. Besides, wouldn’t it be like the Boss to try to stick it to the Mets by acquiring the good Zambrano?

Not saying that would happen, but there just isn’t much on the market for the Yankees if they want to get someone for that rotation. If they’re willing to deal Hughes, then things do open up a bit.

Toronto Blue Jays, 56-45, 5.5 back of the Red Sox, 4 back of Yankees for wild card:
The Jays have the best one two punch in the division in Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett along with decent filler at the back end with Ted Lilly. In the American League East, that actually gives them the best starting rotation, even with the likes of Casey Janssen and his 5.18 ERA. But unlike the Yankees and Red Sox, they have the double whammy of having a miserable 4th and 5th starters combined with an even worse bullpen. Even with an explosive offense led by Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus, they cannot over come a cadre of relievers who have ERAs well above 4.00. Only Justin Speier and BJ Ryan have been competent for the Jays this year. That will have to change.

So the Jays could go out and get a starter, but that could be costly. If they shored up the pen, it should put them in an excellent position to challenge for the AL East. That won’t be cheap either, but they could get two or three relievers for the cost of a decent starter in this market. Toronto already got a young arm back in Jeremy Accardo for Shea Hillenbrand, but it’s hard to fathom the youngster stepping in and becoming a key contributor right away after posting a 4.91 ERA in 40.1 innings with the Giants this year despite quality peripherals. They’d be the perfect team to try to pry away Roberto Hernandez and Damaso Marte from the Pirates since both would go a long way to making the seventh inning less of an adventure. Ryan Dempster wouldn’t be terrible if the Cubbies wanted to deal him.

With two of the best pitchers in the division and one of the best in the league, Toronto has to be considered a threat. But they’ll be nothing more than an idle one unless the bullpen is addressed. There are always relievers out there so it’s up to GM JP Riccardi to get it done.

Again, this is a close race that can be turned with just one move. Which G.M. will have the balls to pull off the big splash which nets his team the division?
By four P.M. on Monday, we’ll know.

Stats via Hardball Times

Part 1: The NL Contenders

Part 2: The NL Long Shots

Part 3: The AL West

Part 4: The AL Central

A Most Unlikely Return?

2006-07-26T02:59:00.000-04:00

Since the trend 'round these parts seems to be figuring out what one's favored team would/should give up in order to acquire Alex Rodriguez, it figures that I might as well examine what it would take to return A-Rod to the organization which made him the first overall pick in the 1993 amateur draft. With the Mariners in the midst of a rather pathetic playoff race in the AL West, trade scenarios are always fun, especially when they involve the most hated ex-player in team history.

Mariner assets: The biggest is clearly "King" Felix Hernadez. Despite struggling at times this year, he's still one of, if not the, best pitching prospects in baseball. Just 20, he's got fanastic stuff and will be cheap and controlled for a few more years down the road. Behind him, the Mariners have a pair of young middle infielders, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez. Lopez was an all-star second baseman this year, while Betancourt is hitting nearly .300 and playing stellar defense. Recently-promoted centerfielder Adam Jones, also just 20, looks to be a star in the making as well. As far as more established players go, the Mariners have stud relievers Rafael Soriano (who perhaps could be reconverted to a starter) and JJ Putz, starter Gil Meche, third baseman Adrian Beltre, first baseman Richie Sexson, and outfielders Raul Ibanez and Ichiro Suzuki. Catcher Kenji Johjima, just a rookie, is another compelling player. The farm system is rather barren. Last year's first round pick, catcher Jeff Clement has looked decent, while Chris Snelling is a talented hitter who is frequently injured. Beyond that, it's the usual grab bag of power arms, guys with command problems, and hitters who either strike out too much and/or lack power. Basically, if a deal were to happen, it would almost certain involve guys on the big league roster.

Who the Yankees would want: King Felix, first and foremost. He's the only guy on the Mariners who could one day equal A-Rod in value. But I'd be stunned if he were moved: while this year has been disappointing at times, he's got almost limitless potential and is just 20. If the Yankees want youngsters, Jones is probably the next guy on their list. He fills a vital need by giving them some youth in the outfield, and he's got the potential to be a Mike Cameron/Eric Davis-type player. Assuming the Yankees wanted help this year, they could also look to grab either Ichiro or Ibanez. Ibanez has the added value of being cheap both this year and next, while Ichiro, though not in A-Rod's league, costs a fair chunk of change. Pitching help would be hard to come by from the M's: Meche could be made available, and the Mariners would gladly throw in either Jarrod Washburn, Jamie Moyer (though he has a no-trade clause due to being a 5-and-10 player), or Joel Pineiro.

On the Mariners end, unless the Yankees picked up a lot of A-Rod's deal, any potential trade would have to include Beltre: first of all, he'd be expendable with A-Rod, and second of all they've committed a lot of money to him. He might be attractive to the Yankees: he's still young, and has tons of potential, and he's a much better fielder than A-Rod. Perhaps in that lineup he might see better pitches and succeed.

So here's the prospective deal: the Mariners send Beltre, Ibanez, Jones, and Meche to the Yankees for A-Rod. The Yankees get back an outfielder better than anyone they have on the field currently, plus a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy in Meche. They get a natural third baseman in Beltre who, while no guarantee to come even close to A-Rod's production does have that massive 2004 season in his history. Who knows, he might be able to regain his form in pinstripes. They also get a talented young outfielder who could become the latest in a long line of Yankee greats in center. The Mariners get back perhaps the top player in baseball, and while losing Jones hurts, the other parts are fairly easy to replace: Meche is going to be a free agent this offseason anyhow, Ibanez has been productive but could drop off the face of the earth, and Beltre has been a massive failure in Seattle.

Would the Yankees do it? Probably not. I doubt they're actively shopping A-Rod, but if they were I'd have to imagine they could get more in return. On the other hand, this deal gives them more usable parts then, say, Ben's deal, so it's a possibility.

Would the Mariners do it? From a talent standpoint they'd be stupid not to. They give up one top prospect in order to get back one of the best players in baseball. While they'd take on slightly more salary, it would be worth it to add a bat like Rodriguez's to the lineup. But then again, there's the PR factor. I was at the first game A-Rod played in Seattle after signing with Texas, and while the fan reaction has mellowed since then he's still the most-hated former Mariner in history. It would take a rather large set of, um, courage on the part of Bill Bavasi to bring him back, and while Seattle is far more civil then New York he'd be booed almost instantly unless he produced. In the end, I think the baggage and the money probably scare the Mariners off, but it's a tough call.

24+ 1 Revisited: A-Rod to the Mets

2006-07-26T01:28:00.000-04:00

With David already getting the ball rolling with the A-Rod trade ideas, I thought I’d continue it. After all, as A-Rod’s biggest defender at Sportszilla, it’s only natural I’d like him on my team, right?

Of course, but with a caveat; it has to be in a deal which is actually beneficial to the Mets this year and going forward. Because I, much like the Mets themselves, would not make a trade with my team doing this well unless I was certain it would improve their chances of taking it all in October. So that limits it some here, but that doesn’t mean a deal is impossible. Following the same format as David used, it’s time to head to the negotiating table.

The Mets assets: The most appealing asset for any team looking at the Mets would be the left side of that infield. David Wright is the player most teams would want first because he probably has the greatest marketability; like it or not, a clean cut white guy sells not only in New York, but across the country. Jose Reyes might be the more valuable of the two, just because he has the potential to give you a 20 home run, 20 triple, 60 stolen base guy complete with solid defense at shortstop. We’re talking about a guy who could end up being the best player at his position one day. They also have a resurgent Carlos Beltran, who is the second most valuable player in baseball this year behind Albert Pujols. The Mets also have free agent to be Cliff Floyd, big bopper Carlos Delgado, and hot prospect Lastings Milledge down on the farm.

The rotation features Pedro Martinez, who is still one of the best pitchers in the game. Tom Glavine is a solid 2/3 starter at this point, veteran El Duque who looks to have something left in the tank, with rookie Mike Pelfrey brining up the rear in terms of tradable starters. The Mets of course have the trio of Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez and Billy Wagner in the pen. The Mets farm isn’t particularly deep, with the lone pitcher outside of Pelfrey being 2004 first rounder Phillip Humber, rehabbing now from Tommy John surgery.

What the Yankees would want: Mr. Wright. He’d be an instant sell to the fan base. Of course, the Mets would laugh and demand Phillip Hughes back in addition to A-Rod. At 23, and making absolutely nothing money wise, the Mets have no reason to deal Wright, especially with Reyes at short. Reyes is in a similar vein, though the Yankees would have less use for Reyes since Jeter occupies shortstop. Somehow if A-Rod couldn’t move the Captain, I doubt young Reyes would.

It would seem as though best player to start with would be Carlos Beltran. He provides the Mets with a swappable salary. But why exactly would the Mets move Beltran, when he plays an even harder position to fill, and plays it well. They’d have to move A-Rod to second anyway, and if the Mets want to throw a ton of money at a second baseman who might not play the position well, they can do that with Alfonso Soriano this winter. Remember, for the Mets to make this move, it would have to make them loads better now, or slightly better now and better down the road.

Cliff Floyd and Carlos Delgado would be the actual places to start. Floyd would become the Yankees best defensive outfielder and with the short porch at Yankee Stadium, be an asset there. Delgado is the same story, with the short porch being very appealing to a dead pull hitter like he. The Yankees would also need a pitcher. Loving the old, proven vet, the Yankees take back Orlando Hernandez and Tom Glavine. This allows the Yankees to fill out their rotation with five proven starters.

So the Yankees lineup would look like this:

Damon CF
Jeter SS
Giambi 1B
Delgado DH
Posada C
Floyd LF
Cano 3B
Williams/ Cabrera RF
Cairo 2B

Rotation:

Mussina/ Johnson/ Glavine/ El Duque/ Wang

The Yankees lose A-Rod’s production but gain a guy who at Yankee Stadium can give you something close to it in Delgado. Floyd is a solid rent a player who could be resigned if the team lets Gary Sheffield go. The lineup is definitely lefty heavy, but it's so good that shouldn't matter. Rotation wise, they gamble that Glavine and Hernandez are still able to get guys out in the AL, but they get pitching help without giving up Phillip Hughes.

Meanwhile the Mets turn around and spin Aaron Heilman and Lastings Milledge into Barry Zito, which at this point, seeing as Zito has signed with agent Scott Boras, is about all the A’s can hope to get for the lefty. The Mets also go to the Mariners and send them either Heath Bell or John Maine along with AAA propsect Evan Maclane for Gil Meche, which is probably more than the M’s are going to get back for a free agent to be who’s had one nice half season in his entire career. So now, the lineup would look like this:

Reyes SS
LoDuca C
Beltran CF
A-Rod 1B/3B
Wright 3B/1B
Nady RF
Valentin 2B
Chavez LF

Rotation:

Martinez/ Zito/ Meche/ Pelfrey/ Steve Trachsel

The Mets weaken themselves in a few spots but get the best player in the deal. A-Rod, with something to prove returns to his 2005 ways. That gives the Mets the best 3-4-5 in the majors and with Reyes at the top, the line up is just one giant run scoring machine. The rotation is arguably stronger, as Zito is an upgrade from Glavine and Meche is at least equal to but likely a better pitcher than El Duque. Heilman is tougher to replace, but Heath Bell, Pedro Feliciano and Chad Bradford can pick up the seventh inning slack. Meanwhile the since neither is a star at 3B, the Mets move either Wright or A-Rod to first. Another option is to move Reyes to second, but since he’s an above average defender who’s arm is most valuable at short, this isn’t a likely solution.

Would the Yankees do it?
They’d want Wright, Reyes or Beltran, but we know the Mets won’t do that. Lastings Milledge or Mike Pelfrey aren’t appealing since the Yankees want to win now. They’re getting two players who fill holes, and would deepen their lineup. In an ideal world, Delgado by himself would come close to A-Rod’s production, while Floyd and the pitchers would be icing on the cake. It would be a gamble, but the Yankees wouldn’t have to eat salary on A-Rod’s deal; so they do it.

Would the Mets do it?

In a video game world, yes. The Amazins give up Glavine, but replace him with a better pitcher who they want anyway. Delgado is older and less valuable as a 1st baseman than A-Rod is. Floyd might well be gone after this year regardless. While they lose Milledge, with the Mets huge cash reserves, they can go out and throw 13 million at Alfonso Soriano in the off season, if they feel they need to. Either way, they now have a lineup which should be the best in baseball for the next 4 years at least, given that both Beltran and A-Rod are under 32. Plus, the Mets do all that while keeping Wright, Reyes and Mike Pelfrey. Money wise Zito's huge deal is tempered by Glavine's being off the books while Delgado and Floyd make up for A-Rod's deal. (since Texas is still paying part of it)

In real life, no way in hell this happens because of chemistry issues. No G.M. would turn over half his roster with an 11.5 game lead in the division. The PR fallout would be enormous, and people would say A-Rod’s problems won’t be solved by moving from the Bronx to Flushing. So unless Omar Minaya and Brian Cashman are playing around on a Playstation 2, this isn’t going to happen.

Trading ARod: San Francisco Giants

2006-07-25T22:36:00.000-04:00

Fans in the Bronx have been painting an ugly self-portrait recently, what with booing Alex Rodriguez at every opportunity. Let me repeat: booing the best all-around player in baseball at every opportunity. National commentators are circling like vultures, and voices of reason keep falling on deaf ears.

So, what to do? Obviously, Sportszilla has to figure out if our knee-jerk reaction is correct, if it really would be idiotic for the Yankees to trade ARod. In the first of what could become a series, I'll examine what the San Francisco Giants would have to give up in order to get Rodriguez. The working assumption is that every team in MLB would gladly make room for ARod, but what would they have to give up to get him?

GIANTS' ASSETS
Jason Schmidt is a free agent after this season. He's in his early thirties, so a five year deal at more than 10 million dollars per year could be a disaster at the back end. Folks in the Bay Area have been speculating that Schmidt is likely to return to his Pacific Northwest roots and sign with the Mariners this offseason, though Brian Sabean hasn't ruled out an attempt to re-sign him. Matt Morris has pitched better of late, but his terrible start to the season might portend worse things in the next two years of his contract. Jamey Wright is trash. Matt Cain is the prize young pitcher carrying the organization's hopes for the future. In an ideal world, in the next few years, Cain makes the leap like Scott Kazmir, Noah Lowry defies his list of comparables to become the poor man's Andy Pettitte, and Tim Lincecum, this year's tenth overall draft pick, rides the fast track to the majors and bursts on the scene with mid-career David Cone numbers. Jonathan Sanchez had a tremendous season in the Sally League last year, and is already helping out in the big league bullpen. While he could be a great reliever right away, his highest upside is as a starter. Armando Benitez is the closer, but something tells me the Yankees wouldn't want to go down that road again. So, while the Giants have some interesting pitching prospects that will be developing over the next few years, nothing is assured, and they will almost certainly look to bolster their staff through free agency as they move forward.

Among the hitters, Barry Bonds is going nowhere this season. Randy Winn signed a contract extension prior to this season that runs through 2009 with a full no trade clause through 2007. Omar Vizquel and Mark Sweeney are signed through 2007. Eliezer Alfonzo is a rookie. Moises Alou, Shea Hillenbrand, Pedro Feliz, Ray Durham, and Steve Finley will all be free agents after this season. As far as prospects, the Giants have a barren system. Kevin Frandsen isn't much more than a utility prospect. In 2005, Todd Linden had one of the best seasons the Pacific Coast League has seen in recent memory, but he's 26 years old and already saddled with the AAAA label. Travis Ishikawa is young, crushed the ball in the Cal League last season, but appears to have stalled in AA this year.

WHO WOULD THE YANKEES WANT?
Jason Schmidt is the guy who sticks out most. The Yankees need starting pitching, and the Giants have to clear payroll in order to take on the 20 million dollars or so that the Yankees are paying ARod. In light of that pitching deficiency, all the young pitchers (except Lincecum, who can't be traded by rule) are enticing. Moises Alou must also look fairly intriguing, since neither Gary Sheffield nor Hideki Matsui is likely to be back before the end of the season, but injury concerns will be a major issue for the rest of his career. Robinson Cano is decent, but Ray Durham has slugged well over .500 this season and would fit nicely behind Posada in the lineup. Cano can move to third if Shea Hillenbrand or Pedro Feliz aren't included in the deal.

FINAL PROPOSAL
Giants get: Alex Rodriguez ($20 million) (70RC)
Yankees get: Jason Schmidt, Noah Lowry, Ray Durham, Moises Alou, Shea Hillenbrand ($30.5 million) (194RC, Hillenbrand excluded)

The Yanks would insert both pitchers into the rotation to go with Johnson, Mussina, and Wang, promptly DFA Sidney Ponson and Shawn Chacon, and probably move Jaret Wright to the bullpen. Alou would play LF. Durham would play 2B with Cano moving to 3B. Hillenbrand would play 1B so that Giambi can DH. Goodbye Andy Phillips. Goodbye Bubba Crosby. Goodbye Nick Green. Suddenly, the Yankees have a deeper lineup and rotation. While losing ARod hurts, the pitching takes a leap forward. After the season, only Lowry would be guaranteed to stay, as the rest are free agents. However, combined with the assumed departures of Sheffield and Bernie Williams, the exodus also frees up lots of money to blow on free agents. Hark! Barry Zito approaches! Where art thou, Carlos Lee?

CF Damon
SS Jeter
DH Giambi
LF Alou
C Posada
2B Durham
1B Hillenbrand
3B Cano
RF Williams

SP Mussina
SP Schmidt
SP Johnson
SP Wang
SP Lowry

The Giants would move Sanchez and Hennessey into the rotation. For the rest of this year, that means there'd be only two surefire Major Leaguer starting games (Cain, Morris), and the rest are shaky propositions. Todd Linden would split time with Steve Finley, forcing Randy Winn to split time between CF and RF since Finley won't play corner OF. What they would do with ARod would depend on Omar Vizquel. If Omar refuses to move, ARod plays 3B and Feliz moves to 1B or plays more corner OF. Kevin Frandsen would then be asked to take over at 2B. If Omar is willing to move to 2B, ARod can play SS, Feliz stays at 3B, and Mark Sweeney platoons at 1B with Todd Greene. The lineup has a fearsome twosome in the 3-4 slots and isn't an embarrassment at any of the other positions (unless you think Linden will never be more than the destitute man's Russell Branyan). After the season, Bonds's contract will be off the books in addition to the contracts of the guys they traded away and didn't pay for the rest of this season. Some of that money will go to ARod, who is only guaranteed through 2007, since he can opt out in 2008-2010. However, with all the young pitchers, there will still be money left over to make a non-insulting offer to Bonds if he wants to play another season and go after lower-tier free agents such as Byung Hyun Kim or Jay Payton, or re-sign Feliz.

CF Winn
2B Vizquel
SS Rodriguez
LF Bonds
3B Feliz
1B Sweeney/Greene
RF Linden
C Alfonzo

SP Cain
SP Morris
SP Sanchez
SP Hennessey
SP Wright

WOULD THEY DO IT?
The Giants wouldn't do it this year. The ecstasy of acquiring Rodriguez would be tempered by the impression that the team had given up on this season when they were in the thick of things. The Runs Created also shed light on why this is ultimately a tough deal for the Giants to accept even in a PR-less video game world. According to that number, Jason Schmidt has been the most valuable player this year among all the players in the trade. Furthermore, despite compiling less than half the RC of the guys going to New York, Rodriguez is being paid two-thirds their salary. If the Yankees pick up part of ARod's tab, say, another 5 or 6 million dollars per year, then the deal becomes much more manageable and the Giants would almost certainly have to do it, since it would essentially amount to trading Lowry for ARod.

Harolding a New Age

2006-07-25T12:58:00.000-04:00

So the sad news came to my attention this morning: Harold Reynolds, former Mariner second baseman and current ESPN broadcaster has, apparently, been fired. At the present moment, no particular reason has been given: he did have a rather heated exchange with resident dugong/ex-Phillie John Kruk a few days ago, but I find it hard to believe that even as incompetant an organization as ESPN would fire him for that.

Growing up, Baseball Tonight was my favorite program, at least after Keith Olberman left the network and SportsCenter turned into the bloated special features-fest it is today. When you had Ravech, Reynolds, and Peter Gammons you knew you were getting the best 30 minutes of baseball talk the WorldWide Leader could put on the air.

Sadly, that combo rarely appeared together, as we were more often subjected to the horrors that were Kruk, Jeff Brantley, Rob Dibble, Steve Phillips, and many others. It's as if ESPN realized they had a good show and decided to make it nearly unwatchable as much as possible.

So the question is, where does ESPN go from here? Granted, they'll probably just toss in another ex-player, or give us more Tino Martinez/Orestes Destrada, but maybe, just maybe, they'll get creative. Considering the increasing influence of sabermetrics, why not hire someone who can counter the inevitable "Josh Beckett is having a great year because he's got 13 wins nonsense" with the counterpoint that, gosh, he's getting a hell of a lot of run support and generally his numbers suck. I'm sure there must be someone at Baseball Prospectus, or the Hardball Times, or something like that who could fit as an on-air personality. ESPN already has the ex-player role filled, and fills the journalist role with the host (and Gammons or Kurkjian whenever they're on). So why not give a voice to the statistician/fan? I know I'd watch it...

Central Themes

2006-07-25T03:31:00.000-04:00

If someone had told you before the season that the American League Central would have three of the best teams in baseball, people might have believed you. But it’s highly unlikely any would have guessed it would be the Detroit Tigers, not the Cleveland Indians, who would be making a run at the American League pennant.

Yet here we are, near the deadline, and the Tigers have the best record in baseball at 67 wins. Of course, while regular season record is necessary to get into the postseason; it becomes a crapshoot from there. Usually you like teams with hot pitching, which one has to love if you happen to be a fan of the team from the Twin Cities. But unlike the Tigers, they have to make the right moves to gain entrance into October. And then there’s the World Champions with their nutcase manager, who were busy today and might be even busier in the coming days.

It’s an interesting time to follow the AL Central. Let’s take a closer look.

Detroit Tigers, 67-32, 1st place – The team with the best pitching in the league by far, Detroit’s record might lure some into a false sense of security. They have 67 wins, but like the Seattle Mariners of 2001, should be looked at as a question mark come the postseason.

I don’t love the pitching, but heading into the postseason unless Minnesota gets in, Detroit will have the best starter of any team, with Jeremy Bonderman at the helm. Of course, Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander will probably push him back to game three. Verlander I’ve already commented on, but is solid enough to slot in behind Bonderman in an ideal world. The problem lies in Rogers, who should not be trusted at all in a big spot.

That’s why I suggest the Tigers do something radical; trade Rogers for a bat. Off hand, my suggestion is to swap him for the Reds’ Ryan Freel, who can play almost any position on the field and is a valuable speedster. With an OPS of .851, 22 stolen bases and a success rate of 79% he’s been much more valuable than 3rd baseman Brandon Inge who’s OPS is .789. The latter’s hitting .242 with an OBP of .303; his .486 slugging is the only reason he’s respectable. The drop in power would be mitigated by the fact Freel does everything else offensively better than Inge. Besides with Magglio Ordonez, Chris Shelton and Carlos Guillen, the Tigers have their share of power hitters.

Of course that won’t happen; the PR fallout would be a nightmare. A utility type player for the All Star Game starter? That’s just insane. But the fact remains Rogers’ prior history and current ability does not lend one to think he can get by on a big stage. If nothing else, a move like this would put the big games squarely in the hands of the guys most capable of winning them.

Other than that, Detroit could also swap one of their power arms for a big bat. That is more likely to happen; especially since this Soriano to the White Sox talk appears premature.

The Tigers look promising. But if they’re smart, they won’t be fooled into meaningless honors like “All Star Game starter” and put the best players out there come October.

Chicago White Sox, 59-39, 7.5 back of Tigers, 1st place in wild card- Earlier today it appeared they had snagged the big bat of the market, but Alfonso Soriano is still a Washington National. They did pull off a nice thing today, grabbing Mike MacDougal from the Royals in exchange for a couple of prospects.

The Chi Sox don’t need a bat however; it’s the pitching that needs an overhaul. Jose Contreras has had a nice season, but the rest of the rotation is in shambles. Mark Buehrle is terrible, Javier Vasquez continues to be an enigma while Freddy Garcia hovers between mediocrity and garbage. Jon Garland pitches his best game of the season, and nearly gets attacked by Ozzie Guillen for not getting himself ejected. It’s been that type of year for those starters. Why exactly should Brandon McCarthy want to get into this group?

If G.M. Ken Williams is to be believed, then the Chi Sox are making the right decision in dealing not McCarthy. It makes a deal with the Nats less likely, but that’s okay. The Sox addressed part of their bullpen woes, now, if they were really shrewd, they’d try to turn free agent to be Buerhle into a young pitcher who could contribute right away either from the rotation or pen, then slot McCarthy in to his spot. More realistically, they’ll try to acquire Soriano by dealing someone like Vasquez and try to get another arm for their pen, especially if they cannot net the Nats’ outfielder.

Minnesota Twins, 57-41, 9.5 back of Tigers, 2 back of Chi Sox- The Twinkies were in terrible shape a month and a half ago. Now they’re the hottest team in baseball and closing fast on the wild card. The spark plug has been Francisco Liriano who completes the best 1-2 punch in the majors with Johan Santana. The bats have come to life as well, as Justin Morneau, Luis Castillo and co. finally have given some help to MVP candidate Joe Mauer.

The middle of the Twins rotation isn’t anything special, but the first two are so good it doesn’t matter. Come the postseason, teams will have to win four games against those two without losing to anyone else; not an easy task should Minnesota make it. The Twins need offensive upgrades to get there however.

Their outfield is a complete mess with injuries to Shannon Stewart and Tori Hunter. However, the Twins have not been heard from much in the Soriano hunt, despite the fact they usually have some pretty decent prospects. It’s more likely they try to swap Hunter to a team who needs a centerfielder and then acquire another outfielder. Scott Baker has shown enough over the last couple of years to get back a decent offensive player and since the Twins don’t seem to want to use him this year, it wouldn’t be a bad move to get someone who could help them this year, especially if that player will not be a free agent this off season. They could use help pretty much everywhere except second, catcher and first, thus almost any bat would do. Phil Nevin, Jeromy Burnitz, Craig Wilson are all cheap options as free agents to be. Preston Wilson and Jason Lane from the Astros also could be had, and considering where both have fallen, probably not for much. The bonus for a guy like Lane is that he is still a while away from free agency.

The Twins and A’s have the best reputations as being second half juggernauts. With the wild card race as tight as it is, Minnesota will have to live up to their reputation in order to make the playoffs. With a couple of moves to bolster than lineup and those two aces at the front of that rotation, they could become the team no one wants to face in the first round of the postseason.

Think about it; game one- Santana, game two Liriano, and game five, Santana. The American League East winner is already shuddering thinking about it.

Speaking of that division, that’s where we head next to wrap up the needs of the American League teams.

Part 1- The NL Contenders

Part 2- The NL Long Shots

Part 3- The AL West

You Don't Shea. Hillenbrand's A Giant.

2006-07-25T00:11:00.000-04:00

When the Giants traded Jeremy Accardo for the recently DFAed Shea Hillenbrand and middle reliever Vinny Chulk, I felt a twinge of sickness in my stomach. Giants fans had started to regard Accardo as the team's closer of the future; they could have traded Proven Closer(tm) Armando Benitez for whatever they could get this offseason, inserted Accardo into the role and put the salary savings into signing a hitter or starting pitcher. Though his minor league numbers are far from overwhelming, they're decent--and man, is his stuff electric. To sum up, this is not Gary Majewski. More like Bill Bray. And the Giants got a LOT less than the Nats did.

This may be the first time I'm in agreement with Bruce Jenkins about something baseball-related, but at least I can take solace in knowing his reasoning is completely different from mine. While Jenkins thinks the deal was bad because Hillenbrand is a bad apple and could contaminate the team's chemistry (a conclusion he could only reach from personal contact with the players, affirming his role as "expert" voice), I'm much more concerned about a little thing called on-field production. Though some people seem to be comparing Hillenbrand to Lance Niekro, and it's really no comparison with Niekro's putrid season with the stick, Sir Lancelot is toiling for Fresno in the PCL; the comparison should be between what Hillenbrand will likely do down the stretch and what Mark Sweeney will likely do. Let's look at the numbers as I laid them out in a diary on McCoveyChronicles, slightly edited for clarity:

2006 Hillenbrand: 1.1 WARP
(80 games, 316 PAs, God knows how much DHing kept the WARP from sinking, as he's firmly below average--1B--to awful--3B--with the leather)

2006 Mark Sweeney: 1.3 WARP
(73 games, 215 PAs, defense in LF actually hurts him, but defense at 1B has been excellent)

(Sh**s and Giggles) 2006 Lance Niekro: 0.4 WARP
(52 games, 191 PAs, best defensive 1B in the game)

2006 Vinny Chulk: 4.66 FIP

2006 Jeremy Accardo 2.50 FIP(!!!)
For reference, of NL relievers who had thrown more than 35 IP through 7/22, that's THIRD, and it's roughly in line with Bobby Jenks and Scot Shields's FIPs.

Using more HardballTimes metrics, not taking fielding into account:

Sweeney: 28 RC in 215 PAs (5.4 RC/G)
Accardo: 16 PRC in 40.3 IP
Total up to date: 44

Hillenbrand: 38 RC in 319 PAs (5.0 RC/G)
Chulk: 7 PRC in 24 IP
Total up to date: 45

So, the total Runs Created is about equal up to this point in the season, and it appears that Hillenbrand is the best player changing teams. However, after adjusting for playing time, Sweeney has outproduced Hillenbrand, and Accardo has still outproduced the Vincredible Chulk.

While Sweeney has been shielded from facing lefties for the past few years because he simply can't hit them, he's better than Hillenbrand against righties. Coupled with his superior fielding, it makes sense that the two ought to be paired in a fairly strict platoon, with Hillenbrand also spelling Pedro Feliz at third base on occasion. However, that's not how the Giants plan on using them. Hillenbrand will get the bulk of the starts, and Sweeney will once again be relegated to bench duty. But even if the Giants were to employ a platoon, they already had a legitimately decent right-handed partner for Sweeney in backup catcher Todd Greene.

Greene L/R Splits 2003-05
vs. R: 235/258/421
vs. L: 288/335/540

Hillenbrand L/R Splits 2003-05
vs. R: 285/329/438
vs. L: 315/353/516

In other words, Greene, who has played some first base this year, has a comparable line against lefties and could have stepped in as a Matt Lecroy clone, a lefty-mashing 1B/C combo. But no. The Giants had to trade a young guy with nasty stuff for a superfluous rental whose previous manager challenged him to a fight. I would have much preferred if the Giants traded one of their less heralded young middle relievers for a bench upgrade; Jose Vizcaino shouldn't be on anyone's roster, let alone getting important pinch hit opportunities.

It looks like there's a wide variety of opinion on the deal, but in this household, I come down on the "Oh God no!" side of the equation.

But I can still see the "Sure, why not?" side from here.

A Public Service Announcement

2006-07-24T18:16:00.000-04:00

We interrupt your regular sports commentary for a short statistical interlude.

Jason Giambi .258/.409/.587/.997

Derek Jeter .344/.423/.466/.889

Alex Rodriguez .277/.379/.499/.877

Jorge Posada .289/.389/.477/.865

Johnny Damon .293/.369/.461/.830

So to recap, despite his worst season of his career, A-Rod is still the third best Yankee offensively. It’s also worth noting that Jeter’s second best career season is just .12 OPS points higher than the worst season of Rodriguez’s for those of you who think A-Rod is overpaid.

Meanwhile on the hill:

Sidney Ponson: 77.2 IP, 5.79 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 4.98 K/9, 1.23 K/BB, 1.86 GB/FB

Jaret Wright: 80.1 IP, 4.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 5.38 K/9, 1.66 K/BB, 1.01 GB/FB

In a race where four teams are separated by 4.5 games, the Yankees cannot afford to put those two guys out there two out of every five days. But then again, let’s be frank here: it’s really A-Rod’s fault Ponson and Wright stink. I mean if A-Rod had only hit a home run every time he was up, the Yankees could have lost 13-9 yesterday.

Note to the media and Yankees fans: stop whining about A-Rod and focus on your real problems; the back end of a rotation can’t get AAA guys out.

This has been a Sportszilla public service announcement. We now return you to your regularly scheduled trade rumors.

The Wild Wild West

2006-07-24T02:05:00.000-04:00

In the National League, the wild card race features one team over .500 and a bunch of teams under. That isn’t how things will likely finish, but right now it has allowed a lot of mediocre teams to remain in it. That isn’t the case in the American League battle, where the Blue Jays at 4.5 back would be leading in the NL by a healthy three games. Heck in the AL West, the Rangers and Angels, back of the White Sox by nine games, would be neck and neck with the Reds if they played in the other league.

As a result, there really aren’t any “long shots” so to speak in the American League with the exception of the Mariners, who sit 12.5 back of Chicago for the wild card. Still, even they remain within four games of the AL West leading A’s, despite having a record of 47-51.

So rather than do a contender and long shot column, we’ll break it down division by division. Today the West gets the spotlight. It isn’t a pretty sight, where by virtue of overall mediocrity, even the aforementioned Mariners still have a chance. The anomaly of the rest of the league will still produce a playoff team however, so let’s see how the West could be won.

Oakland Athletics 51-47, 1st place- One look at the Athletics runs per game and run allowed per game tells you all you need to know. Oakland ranks second best to Detroit in pitching and second worst to Tampa Bay in offense. In fact, with a ratio of 4.44 to 4.47 respectively, the A’s are averaging just three hundreds of a run more than they are allowing. That says .500 ball club, and the A’s haven’t been much better than that all year.

So bats are what Billy Beane needs to focus on at the deadline. Could he try to spin Barry Zito into a couple of players? Might he try to pull off one of his three way trades to bring back a bat and some prospects? The A’s do have some prospects they could trade. Outside of that, shortstop Bobby Crosby, who’s miserable .644 OPS is killing Oakland’s chances this year, could be an intriguing piece. At 26 years old and injury prone the A’s might be willing to give him up in the right deal. Dan Johnson, who was recently demoted to AAA, is another young player someone might want to take a chance on in exchange for a veteran. Don’t be surprised if Beane pulls the trigger for someone like Reggie Sanders; a low cost player who can give the A’s a boost in production but is no real difference maker.

In the end, the A’s will be watched, but mainly to see what they do with Zito. I don’t think he’ll be traded unless some team steps up with an overwhelming offer. Thus, A’s will remain the popular favorite in the West, whether or not they make a move. However, those who make that assumption could not be more wrong.

Texas Rangers 51-48, .5 games back of A’s, 9 behind White Sox for wild card- Ameriquest Field has long been called the American League version of Coors and this year is no exception. Much like Coors is playing more pitcher friendly this year, so is Ameriquest, which actually has been neutral overall. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Rangers are seventh in both runs scored and runs allowed.

Being middle of the pack in those two categories suggest the Rangers could go either way at the deadline. The likely emphasis will be on pitching since that is where Texas’ reputation is the weakest, but a hitter would cost less in this arms starved market. They’re probably not involved in either the Zito or Soriano hunt, but might be interested in a guy like Bobby Abreu. They’ve had issues in the outfield all season outside of Gary Matthews and would not shirk at taking on Abreu’s deal. Remember, this is the team that handed A-Rod 250 million dollars (and is still paying a good chunk of it).

Since Ameriquest still is a homer happy park despite playing neutral overall, someone like Jake Westbrook would be the best fit pitching wise. Miguel Batistia, who has a GB/FB ratio of 1.97 this year, would be a more likely acquisition, though he is being hotly pursued by a number of teams.

The Rangers run differential is the best in the division, so in fact, they probably should be the favorites over the A’s if the teams stand pat. If they can get a ground ball pitcher in there, and they have the prospects in Jason Botts and John Danks to do it, then the Rangers will have set themselves up in prime position to win the West. If they can get a bat and an arm, they actually have a shot at the American League too.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 50-48, 1 game back of A’s, 9.5 back of White Sox- Outside of the Rangers, the American League West teams can be summed up with this description; solid pitching, lousy hitting. The Angels offense has struggled through veterans like Tim Salmon and Garrett Anderson hanging on too long while youngsters Casey Kotchman and Dallas McPherson have struggled with consistencies and injuries.

Therefore the Angels need a bat, plain and simple. They have the chips to get a Soriano or Abreu with their solid farm system. The Phillies might be a good choice since they probably wouldn’t ask for Jered Weaver, given his propensity for fly balls. The Angels could also go the route of the cheaper 3rd outfield type, though with their offense they’d likely need more than that if they want to seriously contend.

The question with the Angels should be how much are they willing to gamble for this season. There are lot of appealing players on their team they could deal, but for someone like Soriano, such a move could set them back a couple of years if things don’t pan out. Since the Angels are a mix of young players and aging veterans, they probably would be wise in actually trying to sell at the deadline.

Seattle Mariners- 47-51, 4 back of A’s, 12.5 back of White Sox- Hanging on by a thread, the Mariners might have stalled off the reaper with victories over the Red Sox on Saturday and Sunday. They too have lackluster hitting to go with solid pitching, but they likely need a pitcher to stay competitive.

Why are they different? Because their pitching has held it together by virtue of pitching at Safeco, outside of Felix Hernandez, who should continue to improve as the year goes on. Gil Meche has decent peripherals and Jarrod Washburn is an okay third or fourth starter. But neither is a top of the rotation guy that slots in well behind Hernandez, who also isn’t being treated as an ace yet. So a pitcher that can replace Joel Piniero or Jamie Moyer (especially on the road) would be a great help to their playoff chances. One can't give away road starts when you're already behind in the race.

Meanwhile the lineup doesn’t need that much work. Richie Sexson’s career numbers indicate a turnaround is in order. Carl Everett isn’t a particularly good DH, but an upgrade there shouldn’t cost much. Of course, they’re rumored to be after Soriano. It’s not certain what the Mariners would have to give up to get him, but unless Hernandez is involved (and he shouldn’t be), it’s doubtful they could match a team like the Angels or Tigers in terms of prospects. And considering where the Mariners are, they probably shouldn’t be giving up any solid young prospects for a rental.

Before the season, I said the Mariners would be around .500. That’s exactly how they’ve played so far. In this division that’s enough to stay competitive. But this is not a good baseball team and one move will not make them a contender. The Mariners should sit back, deal a veteran or two and get ready for 2007. However, indications are that is not their current plan. We shall see.

That’s the AL West, the weak sister of the league. Tomorrow it’s on to the surprising two team race that is about to become three in the AL Central.

The National League Long Shots

2006-07-23T02:29:00.000-04:00

One of the beautiful things about baseball is that playoff spots are hard to come by.

It’s one of the things which separates the game from sports like basketball and hockey, where you have to be truly awful not to have a shot at the playoffs come January. Sure, it can be nice if you’re the fan of the team sitting three games under .500 that has the eight and final seed in the Eastern Conference, but come on, do you really believe you deserve that spot?

That doesn’t fly in baseball. Even with the wild card, just eight of the thirty teams make the playoffs. Those wild card teams usually push ninety wins, if not more. Bottom line, you’ve got to be good to get in. The years of the .500 playoff teams taking divisions are few and far between.

The trade off? The season’s length. Because there is still another two months to go, unless you’re 10 games back, you’ve got a chance to make up ground. Of course, if you’re under .500 at this point, then odds of a turnaround are not high. But while it’s not likely, it has happened before and will happen again. And a key trade, like the Astros’ acquisition Carlos Beltran in 2004, can be the catalyst to that. So today, we look at those floundering squads who sit on the distant edge of contention in the NL; the long shots.

Los Angeles Dodgers (47-51, 4 back of Giants for NL West, 5 Back of Reds for wild card): Despite playing in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball, the Dodgers are fourth in runs per game in the league this year. Maybe that’s because Dodger Stadium hasn’t live up to its rep this year; it’s actually been the seventh best hitter’s yard this season. That and the team’s sub .500 record would lead you to think the pitching has stunk, but it’s actually middle of the pack. So what’s the Dodgers’ problem?

Part of it is luck; they are four wins below their expected win total but the other truth is their back of the rotation has been a mess all year. Odalis Perez, Jae Seo and Brent Tomko have all come and failed, with Seo exiled to Tampa Bay and Perez now begging his way out. The Dodgers need an arm, preferably a middle of the rotation guy, since Brad Penny’s outrageous home rate of .57/9 won’t continue. Mark Hendrickson and Aaron Sele are only stop gaps. As Zach mentioned in response to the first part of this series , Gil Meche could be an option for someone if the Mariners fall out of it. Greg Maddux might also find his way to LA, since they’re one of the three teams he’d accept a trade to. (Padres and Brewers being the others)

The Dodgers should finish the year over .500, but unless they make a move, not much better. Since the Wild Card does usually take 88-90 wins, it makes them a long shot, albeit the best one, to make the postseason. They do get help by playing in the NL West.

Milwaukee Brewers (46-52, 10 back of Cardinals for NL Central, 6 Back of Reds for wild card): The offensive talent is there, but the rotation after Chris Capuano and Dave Bush is pretty much a black hole. Help could come in the form of Ben Sheets and Tomo Ohka, but they could use a decent fourth guy to shore up the back end for that inevitable next Sheets injury.

However, unlike some teams, a definite option is out there; Maddux. The future Hall of Famer declared the Brewers one of three teams he’d play for thanks to fact his brother Mike is pitching coach. The Brewers also need help in the pen, since closer Derrick Turnbow has gone into meltdown mode and the rest of that crew don’t inspire much confidence. There is always available help at the deadline, just don’t go to the Nationals for it. They’ll ask for Carlos Lee back.

The Brewers were many people’s sleeper pick this year. The first half was a disappointment, but they can still turn it around with a few moves. On the other hand, they could easily be sellers at the deadline and ship Lee elsewhere for good young talent. Sheets’ next two starts could well determine the Brewers’ fate this year. Should he pitch well and escape healthy, they could take a shot at a playoff run.

Atlanta Braves (45-51, 13.5 back of Mets for NL East, 6 Back of Reds for wild card): Their hot streak has many forgetting about their awful first three months. They aren’t that good and have many holes, but who wants to bet against them?

There’s nothing wrong with the offense, scoring 5.35 runs per game, the second most runs in the NL behind the Mets. It’s all pitching. The pen isn’t great, but not as bad as people think, especially with the acquisition of Bob Wickman. However, the starters outside of John Smoltz have been awful. Did Oakland put something in Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder’s Gatorade that made them so dominant? John Thomson has returned to the fifth starter he was up until 2004. They need a top arm and fast. They usually have the players to deal, but it’s unlikely the Marlins trade within their division and both the A’s and Braves have to be gun shy after the lousy haul both teams got in the Hudson trade.

So the Braves will likely have to settle for the best of the rest. Perhaps they will venture down an old road and make a move for the Indians’ Paul Byrd. Some will suggest Maddux if they really get close to the wild card in the next two weeks, but I don’t think that’s an avenue either side wishes to explore again. They could hypothetically look towards Philadelphia if the Phillies start dealing arms, but one wonders if the Braves have a pitcher that could fit Citizen’s Bank Ballpark. Fly ball inducing Chuck James wouldn’t seem to be much of a match; though if the Braves were willing to give up reliever Joey Devine, perhaps the Phillies would be willing to talk.

Their ten year divisional run is over (sorry, ’94 counts Braves fans), but the playoff run can still continue. If they can get someone for the rotation then they should be looked at as the favorites. If not, consider them near finished.

Philadelphia Phillies (44-50, 13.5 back of Mets for NL East, 6 Back of Reds): Atlanta Braves/Milwaukee Brewers redux; all hitting and no pitching. The Phillies are in an interesting position because they would deal Bobby Abreu and thus would be willing to give up a great talent for an arm.

Before the season there was talk of an Abreu/Mark Prior swap. With the Cubs dead that’s probably off the table but someone, especially in the AL, might be willing to part with a young pitcher in exchange for the right fielder.

Much like I detailed for the Reds, the Phillies need a groundball pitcher for that park and he’d better be an extreme one. Jake Westbrook or even Chien Ming Wang would be great fits, but it’s doubtful the Indians would trade for Abreu and the Yankees have a love affair with Wang. (Since right now the back of their rotation features Sidney Ponson and Jaret Wright, it’s probably the right choice) In the end, the Phillies just might have to acquire a prospect and hope that player pans out down the stretch.

I didn’t call this section the “long shots” for no reason.

Houston Astros (46-52, 10 back of Cardinals for NL Central, 6 Back of Reds): The Astros’ pitching isn’t great, but the real joke is their offense. Somehow, despite playing in one of the best hitters parks in baseball they are third to worst in the league in runs per game. They currently start two of the worst offensive regulars in baseball, Adam Everett and Brad Ausmus. If there was any team screaming out for a hitter, or three, it’s Houston.

There are lots of hitters out there and the ‘Stros never shy away from a big deal. Could Alfonso Soriano be this year’s Carlos Beltran? Maybe freeing Todd Helton from Colorado (with the Rockies picking up a portion of his deal) is an option. Sean Casey? Jeromy Burnitz? There are just loads of mediocre hitters out there who would be upgrades over the Astros’ current crop of position players. Outside of Lance Berkman no one in that lineup scares you.

Houston’s offense is about inept as can be and it’s doubtful even a player of Soriano’s caliber could save them. Still if they did manage to pull of a couple of moves, they’d have a shot at getting the wild card.

Colorado Rockies (45-51, 5 back of Giants, 6 Back of Reds): A great story in the first half, the Rockies have faded of late. Their pitching has been the big surprise so far, with their much maligned arms actually performing quite well, to the tune of 3rd best in runs allowed per game in the National League! However, their bats actually have not been as advertised, as they have averaged below five runs per game.

While I have my doubts as to their pitchers’ ability to maintain their current production, if they want to compete, the Rockies have to bring in another bat. Just getting someone mediocre isn’t going to cut it this season; Coors isn’t playing like the hitter’s park it normally does this year. Their weakest position is centerfield. Perhaps they could send Ryan Shealy and a couple of prospects to the Royals for David DeJesus. There’s a new regime there who may not love the center fielder as much as Allard Baird did. Also in need of an upgrade is shortstop, where Clint Barmes is suffering through a sophomore slump. The pen could use some arms as well.

The Rockies are fading so they might not be around come the deadline in a week and a half. If they are there, the temptation will exist to do something. Heck, does anyone remember the last time this team was respectable?

Florida Marlins (44-52, 14.5 back of Mets, 7 back of Reds): If any team had the ability to reel off a nice long winning streak, it would be this Marlins squad. They’re full of young players who have performed a better than most expected. But remember, many of these kids were excellent prospects; they likely haven’t hit their ceilings yet. Plus they’re expected win total suggests they were unlucky in the first half.

Unfortunately, this team would have had to be in first place for them to actually go out and trade for anyone. Despite probably having more talent than the Astros, Braves and Rockies, (and perhaps even a better record) they will end up being sellers at the deadline. They will look to deal closer Joe Borowski, which is a shame since the pen is their weakest area. You’d love to see what this team could do if they got a piece here and there, but alas, it is not to be. At least they won’t be dealing Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera.

Still, it’s been a good run for these Fish. Maybe they’ll continue to surprise and make a charge no one expects.

A real long shot is the Nationals even with their revamped lineup. They’re improved, and one never knows what Jim Bowden will do but ten games should be too much ground to make up. Plus, their starters aren’t doing them any favors, unlike last year.

And that’s the NL. On Monday, we’ll look at the American League, starting with the long shots over there. Stay tuned.

Needs Based Initiative

2006-07-21T02:35:00.000-04:00

The clock is ticking. Can you hear it?

That’s right; it’s less than two weeks until baseball’s non waiver trade deadline. This year, as usual, everyone is after pitching. However unlike most years, the biggest names are not likely to be traded. It would be a minor coup if Dontrelle Willis, Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt found new homes on August 1st, since Willis is cheap and under contract while the other two play for contending teams.

But that doesn’t mean the market isn’t devoid of talent for those who search and if you’re a contending team, you leave no stone unturned. However, step one is figuring out what you need and identifying where you can get by.

Today, we’ll be examining the top teams in the National League and what they should be looking for at the July 31st deadline. These are the teams which should be considered the front runners for a playoff spot right now based off record to this point. In the NL, that just means you’re over .500. But for you Houston Astros or Los Angeles Dodgers fans who feel you’re squads with losing records deserve some mention, that will be forthcoming tomorrow. Promise.

Well then, let’s look at the true contenders in the NL, shall we?

(As usual, Hardball Times provides most of the stats here such as runs per game and FIP)

New York Mets (57-38 1st place NL East) - Even if Jose Valentin reverts to a pumpkin and even with Willie Randolph’s overworking of the Mets’ setup men, neither second base nor the pen should be a concern. The offense is good enough and middle relief has lots of depth. The Mets biggest need is in the middle of their rotation. While Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine have durability concerns, the Mets have built a large enough lead in the NL East; it currently stands at 12 games, they will be able to rest the two down the stretch. But heading into the postseason with the four headed monster of Steve Trachsel (5.27 FIP), El Duque (old and mediocre), Mike Pelfrey (untested) and John Maine (untested and not much upside) is a calamity waiting to happen. They can get by the National League with those guys but they’ll be shelled in the World Series.

Just who can the Mets get? They’ve been linked to almost starter, from Livan Hernandez to Barry Zito. However, it appears Mike Pelfrey cannot be dealt since it has yet to be a year since he signed with the Mets. Would the A’s do Zito for Lastings Milledge and Aaron Heilman? I doubt it with them in the race. Look for the Mets to try to get a Nationals pitcher like Hernandez (yeech) or Tony Armas Jr. G.M. Omar Minaya does have some history in dealing with the Indians as well. If the Mets could somehow procure Cliff Lee, it would go a long way to solving their rotation woes.

St. Louis Cardinals (53-41 1st place NL Central) - Most teams will be looking for starting pitching come the deadline and the Cardinals are no exception. They’ve already resorted to a form of desperation, picking Jeff Weaver out of the Angels’ trash and cutting bait with Sidney Ponson. Incredibly, that was an upgrade. Meanwhile they’re starting the worst qualifier for FIP in the National League, Jason Marquis at 5.87. The Cardinals do have some intriguing arms they could deal, not including Anthony Reyes, who is currently the team’s second best starter. It would be interesting if the A’s were willing to do Zito for Reyes and another minor leaguer. One wonders if the Cardinals might a bit gun shy from such a swap after the Mark Mulder debacle. In the pen Jason Isringhausen is a blown save waiting to happen, but it’s unlikely they’ll make a move to replace him.

If the Cards can’t find a pitcher, they could always go with bringing in someone who could help them score more runs per game. Right now outside of a rejuvenated Scott Rolen and some guy name Pujols, their offense is pretty ordinary. Carlos Lee could be an option of the Brew Crew fall out of it, but the Cards always seem to target 3rd/4th veteran outfield types. That screams Reggie Sanders or maybe someone like Luis Gonzalez, whom Arizona would love to dump. One thing is certain; the Cardinals need to do something if they want to keep up their current pace. They’ve played five wins better than their expected total, which is tied with Milwaukee for the greatest positive deviation in the NL. One can’t expect that to last.

San Diego Padres (50-45 1st place NL West)- The Padres currently are in first place in the NL West and have to be considered the favorites to win the division. Even with Chris Young’s injury, the starting rotation should be enough to compete, though Jake Peavy’s continued struggles are a concern. PETCO Park is the real reason for this, but all that matters is that the Padres are number one in baseball in runs allowed per game.

Offense is San Diego’s biggest concern right now. Outside of Mike Piazza, Adrian Gonzalez and Mike Cameron, the Padres are struggling to get decent production from their position players. They would be an interesting fit for Bobby Abreu, since his high on base and solid speed would not be affected by PETCO. The question is whether they’d be willing to take on his enormous contract. It’s unlikely that happens unless the Phillies take another large contract back, like Brian Giles. Other options include Jeromy Burnitz and apparently, Adrian Beltre, should the Mariners fall out of it. But they’ll need more than that if they want to compete with the Mets and Cardinals; they’re not likely to test either’s mediocre pitching staff with their current lineup.

Cincinnati Reds (50- 46 4 games back of Cardinals)- After making one of the worst trades in the last five years, the Reds still have needs. They have filled their pen yes, but to do so have opened up holes on their offense and still have nothing in the rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. Like other teams in the race, the Reds need starters, but a certain type is desirable since the mediocrity on the market will look even worse at Great American Ballpark. Thus, ground ball pitchers are the most desirable. If Jake Westbrook is on the market, his 3.13 GB/FB would fit in nicely. If the Rockies were interested in dealing, then Aaron Cook and his 3.41 mark and 3.59 ERA could slot in behind the Reds’ top two.

On the positional end, the Reds could use an upgrade at short and in the outfield. The expensive options would be Julio Lugo or Alfonso Soriano. A cheap choice would be Sanders. At short, an option would be the Rockies’ Jamie Carroll. While Carroll isn’t great, he currently has an .818 OPS, will come cheap and is likely to outperform Royce Clayton down the stretch. Jose Vidro is also an option for second (with Brandon Phillips moving to short). With Junior’s contract off the books after this year, the Reds might be willing to take Vidro on. But after getting fleeced by the Nationals once this month, it’s unlikely the Reds will get anything done with them, especially since Vidro would cost them a decent prospect. (Homer Bailey anyone?)

The Reds probably destroyed their chances of doing anything with last week’s trade, since Gary Majewski is already showing he was an RFK creation and their offense is now weakened. But if they could pull in that third starter, they would still have to be considered the favorite for the Wild Card.

San Francisco Giants (49-47, 1.5 back of Padres) - With Barry Bonds near the end and Jason Schmidt a free agent after the season, it looks as if this could be the last chance for this corps of Giants players. The G-Men’s pitching remains near the top of the NL, fourth overall in runs allowed per game with a mark of 4.71. With improvement from Matt Cain in the second half, and their ball park, the Giants can probably survive with their starters. Their pen is unreliable at the back end, so they should be in the market for arms there.

But the Giants biggest need should be on offense. While Moises Alou’s return from injury helps, he cannot be counted upon at the age of forty with his history. Rumors have had the Giants after Vidro to play at first, which seems like a mistake, but this is a team that has played Jose Vizcaino, who’s a light hitting middle infielder, at the position. Thus it can’t be discounted. Along those lines, Todd Walker could be an option. If they actually want a first baseman, Sean Casey could be a guy in the mold of J.T. Snow; below average offense but great defense.

In the NL West, you can’t count anyone out. The Giants are likely the second best team, but with a move or two could make a run at the Padres. Their expiring contracts give them a greater flexibility and let’s be frank, G.M, Brian Sabean never hesitates to deal prospects for established veteran players. History should repeat itself here, especially since this could be their last hurrah.

Arizona Diamondbacks (48-47, 2 back of Padres) - Outside of Brandon Webb, the Arizona rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Like the Reds, a ground ball pitcher would be good for a hitter’s park like the Chase Field. Of course, they are like almost every other team and looking for pitching, so acquiring a bat might be a better and cheaper alternative. Since despite playing in a hitter’s park the D-Backs are still just middle of the pack offensively, they could do themselves a great service in doing getting another offensive player.

Right now, the biggest needs are in left field, shortstop and first base. Both left and short now have been given to youngsters, Carlos Quentin and Stephen Drew respectively, for potential auditions. Connor Jackson remains at first, despite poor power numbers at a position where that is a premium. Would they consider bringing back Shea Hillenbrand, who has worn out his welcome in Toronto?

Stephen Drew’s call up might have been due to injury, but Carlos Quentin taking time away from Luis Gonzalez likely means the D-Backs have begun to look to the future despite being just 2.5 back. Of course, if they’re just a few games back come July 31st, it would be surprising of them not to make some move and take a shot at the division. Just don’t expect them to mortgage the future to do it, and that would preclude anything major from happening on their front.

So that’s a look at the contenders. Tomorrow I’ll look at the NL long shot teams; the guys are still in it but whose current performance suggests they’ve not much of a threat. And have no fear American League fans, your teams are coming up as well.

All Star Game 2007: Terrible Timing

2006-07-20T00:16:00.000-04:00

For those of you who don't live in the Bay Area, you are forgiven if you didn't know MLB's 2007 All Star Game will be in San Francisco. The Midsummer Exhibition Game (that counts) hasn't been in my hometown since 1984, when my one and a half year old self slept through Fernando Valenzuela and Dwight Gooden striking out six straight American Leaguers. Rumor and innuendo have it that the game hasn't been held in San Francisco since the new ballpark was built, even though it's usually considered one of the two or three most beautiful parks in the game, because Bud Selig was sticking it to the team for funding construction privately; it's a terrible precedent you know, not holding a community hostage for tens of millions of dollars.

Well, good ol' Bud has put himself in a bit of a pickle, you see. He held out on giving San Francisco an All Star Game for as long as he could without looking too petty, but in doing so he inadvertently scheduled the most super high profile midseason game right where the shadows of the BALCO case loom largest (he could have held out another year, but decided to set a "bold" precedent of his own by scheduling two straight NL parks in a row... but, since this time it "counts", isn't that giving the NL an unfair advantage?).

Zach, Ben, and I have discussed PEDs before, and I can't imagine we won't still be thinking about PED implications come 2007, let alone the mainstream media, which will almost certainly have a field day writing obligatory "the bright lights are on the jewel by the bay, but everyone is really thinking about a strip mall in Burlingame" stories. God help Jason Giambi if he makes the team, or anyone else who has been connected to PED use. I predict more than the usual suspicious "injuries" used as an excuse to stay away from the game, especially if the Bonds indictment comes down today.

Anyway, since my view all along has been that all pro sports are now tainted, I have no problem lampooning MLB and its certainly insufficient drug policy. Inspired by this thread on McCoveyChronicles, I've made a parody of the 2007 ASG logo. You can look at the original here.

So Who's to Blame?

2006-07-19T14:20:00.000-04:00

It's clear that I'm not waking up from my nightmare any time soon. While a few people are trying to find the silver lining, I'm extremely skeptical that the Sonics will remain in Seattle past 2010 at the latest.

So that brings us to the big question: who's to blame for the departure of the Sonics, my favorite team and the only team to win a major championship in Seattle history? I've got a few suspects lined up.

Barry Ackerley: The former owner of the Sonics, he's the guy who agreed to the original terms of the KeyArena lease which are now so unpalatable to Howard Schultz and, presumably, the new ownership. It was also under Ackerley that the team agreed to a half-assed renovation of the Coliseum that would only displace them for one season, as opposed to a larger-scale plan which might have resulted in an arena that was still viable ten years later. At the time, the Sonics owned the city: the Mariners were terrible, the Seahawks were worse, Husky basketball was a non-factor, and Husky football was on probation for recruiting violations under Don James. If ever the city, the legistlature, and the fans were going to come together and pony up the dough (as they'd do for the Mariners and Seahawks, teams with shorter and less glorious histories than the Sonics), that was the time, and Ackerley blew it.

Howard Schultz: The most recent ex-Sonic owner, he's the guy who came in touting a five-year plan to win a championship. Instead, it appears his five-year plan was to sell the Sonics off to the highest bidder. For all of his complaints about the lease and the arena, here's one thing I don't get: those problems existed in 2001, when he bought the team. For a guy who's supposedly a shrewd businessman (he's the founder and owner of Starbucks, after all), it doesn't speak all that highly of his abilities that he got himself in so far over his head. Under his tenure, the Sonics made the playoffs just twice in five years, which ain't too good considering more then half the teams in the league make the playoffs each year. He let his personal feelings towards players impact personnel decisions, and refused to spend money on the team to back up that championship promise. In the end, if the Sonics do move, he'll go down as the man who sold out his city.

The National Basketball Association: Even given all of the above, the financial model for the NBA is broken. While David Stern has done some good in getting player salaries under control, there's a lot more to be done. Too much money is spent on unproven players, something that doesn't really happen in baseball or football (or at least not on nearly the same level). Ticket and merchandise prices have continued to escalate even as the national, and local, economy has stagnated. Plus, he's created an environment where teams can, and do, move around. The league has had to admit it made mistakes with the Vancouver Grizzlies, and then had the whole Hornets debacle, where George Shinn basically forced his way out of Charlotte to New Orleans, which now looks like a really bad idea. Still, it's one thing for teams with a relatively short history, like the Hornets or Grizzlies, or even the Kansas City/Sacramento Kings to move. But the Sonics would be the longest-tenured team (by far) ever to move in the NBA, and that would reflect poorly on the league.

Seattle and Washington State politicians: From seeming disinterested in facilitating a solution to making incindiary quotes like "the Sonics add no cultural value to Seattle," they've been at best neutral, and most of the time an impediment to keeping the Sonics in Seattle. Seattle has nearly lost its other two professional franchises over the last ten years or so, and while the politicians are, for the most part, different, there's still an attitude surrounding the legislature that sports don't matter, and that makes it hard to keep teams. Right or wrong, public money is necessary to build new arenas, and for some reason the legislature and city council have been happy to dump money down the monorail pit but won't spend money to actually do something.

Seattlites: Of course, some of the blame lies with the city and the fan base. While high ticket prices may make it unpaletable to go to games, and while mediocrity is hard to support, it doesn't change the fact that the fanbase has been exceedingly disinterested in supporting the Sonics. Of course, we could have said the same thing about the Seahawks before the last few years, and the same could be said about the Mariners. Like most sports fans, Seattlites will get behind a winner, no matter the sport. But the sad fact is, even when the team was good (like 2004-2005), the fan base was alarmingly apathetic. Maybe people here really don't care about the NBA: considering the state of the league, I can't say I blame them if that's the case.

The truth is that there's going to be plenty of blame to go around. While Schultz will probably be the guy who goes down as the villan, we're all to blame in a way for letting the NBA, and the Sonics, think that we don't care about basketball.

Islanders = Idiocy

2006-07-19T01:51:00.000-04:00

There are certain things in sports that have been done ‘by committee.’ We’ve seen closer by committee and running back by committee but just six weeks ago, the New York Islanders decided to create front office by committee.

Islanders owner Charles Wang reinvented his front office making Neil Smith his general manager, Ted Nolan head coach, Bryan Trottier player development director, and Pat LaFontaine senior advisor. This ‘brain trust’ looked like a disaster from the start. I liked Neil Smith as a GM from his Ranger days (especially for the 1994 Stanley Cup) and I thought Ted Nolan was a hell of a head coach but I never thought they would mesh well. Smith never had a say in deciding who the head coach of the team would be. In fact, Nolan was hired before Smith was. And then add Trottier and LaFontaine and you have a recipe for disaster. There are too many cooks in the kitchen.

Today, Smith was let go by the Isles without ever having the opportunity to see the team take the ice. He was so uncomfortable with the system that Wang put in place and who could blame him? Granted, he should have known that this was what he was getting himself into but still, Smith should have the ability to dictate the operations of the team. He has won a Stanley Cup as a general manager. The other three have yet to do so in their roles.

So with Neil Smith gone, the Isles needed a new general manager. Instead of going for someone who has had some front office experience, Wang turns to the backup goaltender. Garth Snow has promptly retired and will take over as the general manager of the Islanders. Let’s take a moment to think about this. THE BACKUP GOALTENDER???? What’s next? Jerome James will become the next Knicks GM when Isiah is fired? All that Snow will have to do is learn about how to manage the salary cap that is in place in the NHL. One of the contracts that will count against the books is his.

As a caller said on WFAN here in New York, “If it wasn’t for James Dolan, we’d be talking about Charles Wang as the worst owner in New York.” For at least a day, Wang steals the spotlight away from Dolan. The man admits he knows nothing about hockey. That can be the only reason why he kept Mike Milbury on as long as he did and still hasn’t let him go. Why do I get the feeling that Milbury is still whispering things in Wang’s ear? When interviewed by WFAN’s Chris Russo on Tuesday to explain why he decided to change the structure, all he could say is that he wanted to change it up and see how it would work. He never gave a legitimate reason for the change and pointed to such things as Moneyball for giving him inspiration.

Now Charles Wang has done some nice things. His charitable work is well known and commendable. He brought Arena Football to Long Island. And more importantly, he saved the Islanders from financial hell after the horrific episodes of John Spano and Howard Milstein/Steven Gluckstern. Not getting rid of Milbury sooner and firing head coach Peter LaViolette were mistakes. His latest actions have been even bigger ones.

Neil Smith is not the only one leaving the Islanders after a short stay. Later on in the day, Pat LaFontaine resigned from his post. So now, half of the Islander’s new braintrust from less than six weeks ago is gone.

Someone should send a memo to Garth Snow telling him that the first thing he should do is find a new backup goaltender.

A Gut-Punch

2006-07-18T18:45:00.000-04:00

"Bye bye Sonics."

That's the text message I received from a "friend" earlier today. I was out at lunch with my mother when the ominous words flashed across my cell phone screen, so there was little I could do but accept the sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. When I got home, my destination was SupersonicsSoul, where the bad news was confirmed. A few angry phone calls later, and here I am, sitting in front of my computer, trying to deal with the fact that in all likelihood my favorite team will be playing games sooner or later in Oklahoma City.

Seattlites have been through this before: Only a miraculous 1995 season and some legislative shenanigans kept the Mariners from moving to Tampa Bay (yeah, that worked out real well for baseball), and before selling the Seahawks to Paul Allen, Ken Behring had the team loaded up and ready to move to Los Angeles. So I'm not exactly unfamiliar with the possibilities of losing a franchise.

But the Sonics are different. They were the first professional franchise in Seattle: this year will be their 40th. They're still the only professional team to win a major championship in Seattle (1979). Heck, the only other team to do it, the Storm, will also be moving. The Sonics owned Seattle for much of my childhood: the Seahawks were bad and the Mariners were worse while the Sonics were making eight straight trips to the playoffs, including a run to the NBA Finals.

Plus, they're different for me. They were the team my father and I shared: he's always been more a basketball fan than any other sport, and I have too. Watching, and going, to Sonic games was a big part of my childhood and a way for the two of us to spend time together. It still is.

Now granted, the move hasn't been anounced. And I can still hold out hope that the Hornets end up in Oklahoma City instead of the Sonics, or that David Stern will realize that it looks bad for his league to move a team out of a city where it's been for 40 years. Or even that the new ownership and the city will reach some sort of agreement to keep the team around. Maybe they'll have to do what the 1995 Mariners did and electrify the city in order to generate some grassroots support. But deep down, it feels like sooner or later we're going to have to say goodbye.

And when we do, the NBA will be dead to me. No longer will I watch, or attend, or care about games. No one forced the Sonics to sign their lease, and no one forced them to accept a remodel on the Coliseum instead of a brand new building. Similarly, nothing will force me to care about the NBA.

So now this leaves me in a real state of limbo. Do I root for the team this year, hoping, however naively, that they won't leave? Or do I cut them off entirely, hardening my heart before the almost-inevitable departure? It's a tough choice to have to make. I'm sure I'll have more to say as details become available, but right now I'm not sure I can bear to write more.

Snell Ya Later

2006-07-18T02:14:00.000-04:00

Last season, when people talked about the Pirates’ young pitching staff, the guy who got the most press was lefty Zach Duke. There was good reason for it; he had a 1.81 ERA and with a K/9 of 6.17 and K/BB of 2.52, encouraging peripherals as well. However 2005 is now a distant memory and with the lefty struggling in his sophomore campaign, he should no longer be considered the brightest spot on the Bucs’ staff. That distinction should go to right hander Ian Snell.

On the surface, Snell’s ERA of 4.85 and WHIP of 1.55 look like the numbers of a young pitcher who’s going to struggle to keep a rotation spot in the bigs. But a closer look at his peripherals show a pitcher who might not be far away from becoming a solid big league starter. The 24 year old has a strike out rate of 7.41 per nine and a strike out to walk ratio of 1.98 in 105.2 innings this year. His ground ball/fly ball mark is 1.18 and his HR/9 is 1.08. Overall, these are not bad, though the K/BB is a bit low for a non groundball pitcher. Still, the 4.85 ERA seems a bit high for a guy who’s missing as many bats as Snell is this year; he ranks 25th in all of baseball in K/9 and 14th in the National League.

The problem for Snell has been Opp BA, which stands at a poor .297 this season. Just to show how fluky that stat can be; Snell’s mark last year was .267 despite missing fewer bats, having poorer control and generating fewer ground balls. In fact, perhaps the most encouraging sign with Snell is that he’s shown tremendous improvement from 2005 to 2006. Last season in 42 innings, he had a K/9 7.29 but a K/BB of 1.42 and a GB/FB of .85. He’s shown better control and greater ability to generate ground balls without sacrificing his strike out rates. That bodes well for the future.

Yesterday I talked about Justin Verlander and compared him to pitchers who had GB/FB ratios within a tenth of his. I localized that to the AL, but its worth mentioning that Snell’s mark is within that range. So, here’s a quick comparison.

Verlander: 2.83 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 5.73 K/9, 2.14 K/BB, 1.26 GB/FB, .247 Opp BA.

Snell: 4.85 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 7.41 K/9, 1.98 K/BB, 1.18 GB/FB, .297 Opp BA

This goes to show there isn’t all that much difference between the “phenom” Verlander and the “struggling” Snell. The biggest controllable thing holding the Pirates’ righty back is his walks, but the K/BB ratio shouldn’t be enough to warrant that big of a gulf between their ERAs. If Verlander has been lucky this year, Snell has been the opposite. Defense and ballpark also plays a role here as well, since the Tigers have a leg up on the Pirates in both departments. Their park is harder to hit the ball out of and their defense is tighter.

In fact, using the Hardball Times’ FIP statistic, we see that Snell is not alone. Both Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, the other two Pirates pitchers who qualify, have FIP lower than their actual ERAs. Duke’s FIP is 4.39, while his ERA is 5.15! Maholm’s difference isn’t as great; 4.84 compared to 5.05. Snell is sort of the median for the two in terms of how badly his fielding has hurt his ERA; he has a FIP of 4.34 compared to his 4.85 mark. Essentially, the Pirates aren’t doing their pitchers any favors.

Going forward, I think it’s entire possible the 24 year old blossoms into a pitcher similar to the one he was in the minors next season. There, Snell looked like a solid #2 guy with a career K/9 of 8.17 while his K/BB was 3.61. The strike out rate may never get to 8.00 but it doesn’t have to so long as he can get his K/BB over 2.50.

Adding it all up, and Ian Snell looks like he could be a good pitcher in this league for years to come. He may not have the hype but he’s certainly one of the better young pitchers in baseball.

A Return to Earth

2006-07-17T02:38:00.000-04:00

There was a lot of talk a week ago about who was deserving of the All Star game and who was snubbed. One of the people who frequently popped up in the snubbed category was Tigers’ righty Justin Verlander.

A phenom last year who shot through the Tigers system with overpowering stuff and excellent strike out numbers, it looks as though he’s adjusted pretty well the bigs so far. The 23 year old has an 11-4 record with an even more impressive 2.83 ERA. Compared to someone like Mark Buehrle, Verlander had a compelling case for the All Star game.

But in reality, that’s just because Buehrle didn’t deserve to be anywhere near Pittsburgh. Verlander did not either as no matter what the wins and ERA say, his peripherals suggest that he’s a solid big league pitcher and nothing more:

2.83 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 5.73 K/9, 2.14 K/BB, 1.26 GB/FB, .247 Opp BA.

Again, the ERA is great, but the rest of his peripherals look like those of a guy who should be pitching to an ERA around 4.00, especially in the American League. He ranks 26th in K/9, 28th in K/BB and 14th in GB/FB. While the fact he’s a neutral groundball/fly ball pitcher helps, looking at the people near Verlander in that department reveal how lucky he’s been. Of the nine pitchers who are within a tenth of Verlander in GB/FB, five have better K/9 and better K/BB. The list:

Kevin Millwood: 4.66 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.09 K/BB, 3.12 K/BB, 1.33 GB/FB, .297 Opp BA

CC Sabathia: 3.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.11 K/9, 3.83 K/BB, 1.26 GB/FB, .278 Opp BA

Kelvim Escobar: 3.88 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.67 K/9, 2.47 K/BB, 1.28 GB/FB, .245 Opp BA

Jose Contreras: 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 6.19 K/9, 2.29 K/BB, 1.22 GB/FB, .239 Opp BA

Dan Haren: 3.73 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 6.85 K/9, 3.61 K/BB, 1.17 GB/FB, .247 Opp BA

Looking at those peripherals, one sees that outside of Millwood, who is clearly victimized by playing at Ameriquest Field in Texas, none of Verlander’s numbers are better than those of the remaining four. Yet despite having worse K/9 and K/BB numbers, they all have ERAs much higher. The closest, Contrares (who ironically enough has the worst peripherals of the bunch), is still .65 points higher than Verlander.

So could Comerica actually be just a new pitcher’s haven? After all, every Tigers pitcher not named Jeremy Bonderman is outpitching their peripherals it seems. Maybe Comerica is just becoming the new Dodger Stadium.

The problem with that, at least in Verlander’s case, is that his ERA has actually fared worse away from Detroit, 3.45 compared to 2.13. It isn’t as if his peripherals have changed that much; his K/BB is 35/17 at home and 40/18 on the road. Yet opponents are hitting .217 off him away from Comerica and .251 there. Since defense should not fluctuate, and definitely should not it get worse on the road, since fielders should be more familiar with their own park, this suggests Verlander has been very lucky away this year.

The biggest difference between Verlander and the others actually is two fold; first, the percentage of runners left on base this year. The Tigers’ righty has stranded an astounding 80.9 percent of runners this year, second only to Francisco Liriano’s 85.9%. But Liriano’s stuff has been loads better than Verlander’s as indicated by his K/9 (10.41), K/BB (4.15) and GB/FB (2.28). The closest guy on that list of four, is Danny Haren at 76.3%. The bottom guy is Kelvim Escobar at 66.3 %. Sabathia and Contrares fall in the middle at 72.1% and 76.0 % respectively.

The second factor, and the one why despite having solid numbers across the board Haren has an ERA .90 points higher, is HR/9. Verlander’s is .85/9. Haren meanwhile has one of 1.19/9. Contrares is very good at .88/9, Sabathia is fine at .99/9 and Escobar is just around there at 1.01/9. This looks like luck on Verlander’s part as evidenced by the other Tigers pitchers. While Jeremy Bonderman is at .60, he’s also inducing over two times more ground ball outs than fly ball, so it stands to reason he’s giving up less long balls. However Nate Robertson, who has a higher GB/FB than Verlander, has a hr rate of 1.03 per nine, while Kenny Rogers, who has an even higher GB/FB at 1.50, has a Hr/9 of 1.34!

Therefore if we take into consideration that it doesn’t seem as if Tigers pitchers are getting that much of an edge from homers, Verlander’s homer rate seems to be more the result of luck than anything else. His K/9 indicates his stuff isn’t better than the other four pitchers with similar GB/FB, and his control has been worse. So, there stands to be no legitimate reason for either his homer rate or LOB % to be this good.

Everything here points to him coming back down to Earth hard in the second half. Expect him to have an ERA in the 4.00’s in the second half as things balance out a bit. Overall a mark in the high 3.00’s seems like it is realistic and that is still good for a rookie.

Justin Verlander will still probably be a top pitcher in this league as one figures his K/9 will eventually increase again. But he’s not anywhere near the elite yet.

Heart of the Game

2006-07-16T11:52:00.000-04:00

Yesterday was my father's birthday. For those of you who don't know him, he's quite the basketball fan. Normally we'd play basketball together on a Saturday morning, but he's still recovering from surgery on his left knee, so he had to settle for watching me and a number of his long-time basketball buddies play. Last evening, we caught a 7:00 showing of the new basketball documentary Heart of the Game, which was particularly appropriate since it's the story of the Roosevelt (Seattle, WA) Rough Riders girl's basketball team, and my father is indeed an alum of Roosevelt.

Heart of the Game, and just about every basketball documentary made after 1994, ends up being compared to the incomparable Hoop Dreams, just like every sci-fi movie ends up being compared to 2001: A Space Oddysey and every movie about a pair of semi-retarded people gets compared to Dumb and Dumber: they represent the pinnacle of their respective genres. Heart of the Game is not Hoop Dreams in either style or tone, but it certainly stands as a quality movie on its own.

It centers around Bill Resler, a fifty-something tax professor at the University of Washington who takes the head coaching gig at Roosevelt on a lark: he had three daughters who played basketball, and figures at the very least he can connect with the team through that. Plus, he's got a rather unique approach to coaching teenage girls. He nearly runs them into the ground in practice and trains them to view themselves as predatory animals (wolves, lions, etc.) and the opponents as their prey (the phrase "devour the moose" is used at least 30 times throughout the film). It works, both as a way to motivate the girls (they run off a long undefeated season in their first year under Resler) and as a way to draw the audience in: few of us have ever heard girls, or women, who are so openly and joyfully agressive. One player revels in the physical contact she's allowed to have with other girls, while another seems almost sadistic in her love of inflicting pain.

The turnaround of the team composes the first third or so of the movie, while the last two-thirds are focused on the arrival and emergence of Darnellia Russell, a preternaturally talented 14-year-old whose mother diverts her from her neighborhood school (Garfield High) so that she can attend the more middle-class Roosevelt. Russell, predictably, struggles with being surrounding by white kids for the first time in her life and nearly quits basketball. One of the best scenes in the film is when Resler recounts a showdown he has with Russell about promoting her to the varsity squad.

The true crux of the story comes after it's revealed that during her junior year, Russell becomes pregnant with the child of her steady boyfriend. Forced to miss out on a year of basketball because the school district won't let her play, she vows to return for her fifth year of school and fourth year of basketball. The Washington Interscholastic Athletics Association (WIAA) rules her ineligable, saying that her pregnancy, because it was her own choice, doesn't constitute enough of a hardship for her to receive an exemption to play as a fifth-year senior. The team finds her a lawyer, and after earning an injunction decides to play the season with Russell despite the fact that doing so might cause them to forfeit every game of the season if the WIAA has its way.

The court battle and Roosevelt's struggle to finally earn an elusive state championship are interwoven with the rise to power of Garfield, the school that Russell and her mother shunned years ago. Led by basketball legend Joyce Walker, the Bulldogs and Rough Riders have a number of memorable matchups.

So what did I think of the movie? The basketball action is compelling: there's a lot of great footage and a number of close, exciting moments woven together. Considering that director Ward Serril had no idea what he was getting into when he started the project, he must consider himself damn lucky to have gotten such a compelling story.

My biggest complaint is that while plenty of time is spent with Resler, some questions go unanswered. He mentions his daughters, but they're never seen on camera besides a couple of photos, and we don't hear at all from them about what they think about their dad and his rather interesting coaching style. Similarly, Russell gets little face time when she's not in uniform, and we get only glimpses into her personality. Her boyfriend, the father of her child, is never heard from, even when there's an on-going controversy (at least on the Seattle airwaves) about how Russell could go to school, play basketball, and raise a child. It's a short film, only 97 minutes, and I tend to think that a bit more could have been revealed about Russell, and perhaps some of her teammates. None of them comment on what it was like to deal with the distraction of having their star teammate fighting for her eligibility, and none of them talk about what it took to make the decision that could have cost them their season.

Still, Heart of the Game is plenty of fun. I greatly enjoyed it, and it's recommended for any sports fan, or even those who can appreciate some of the challenges of adolecence, especially for teenage girls.

Oh, and for full disclosure, I went to college with one of the girls in the movie...

Empty Arena

2006-07-15T17:14:00.000-04:00

I'm probably not the right guy here at Sportszilla to give you the ins and outs of USA Soccer, but the departure of Bruce Arena, however predictable it was, gives me a chance to give my thoughts on the US's poor showing in the World Cup.

Arena was, in my mind, the single biggest culprit in what was a very disappointing showing in Germany. His decision to stick with the aging Eddie Pope cost the US goals in each of their first two matches, and a similar affection for Claudio Reyna in the middle cost them a goal in the Ghana match. Beyond that, he played an aesthetically bland and unsuccessful style, sticking with the overly-conservative 4-5-1 formation and keeping guys like Eddie Johnson and DeMarcus Beasley either tethered to the bench or in the wrong position. Unlike in previous years (1998, for example) where the US did poorly, the problem wasn't a lack of talent: while the US may not have been the most talented squad, they certainly had enough to manage more than one measly point.

The composition of the squad will certainly be quite different in 2010, and who knows how a different coach will approach things. I'd love to see the US try and play a more wide-open, free-flowing style of soccer to exploit the athleticism and ball-handling of some of their top players, but that will in part be dictated by how much growth guys like Beasley, Landon Donovan, and Freddy Adu undergo in the next four years. In any case, 2010 will be in some ways an interesting test for US Soccer: the matches won't be in Europe, so they'll have a fighting chance; on the other hand, it's uncertain if the American fanbase will stay devoted after such a poor showing.

Whomever they bring in to coach, and however the team does in 2010, it's clear that Arena's tenure was on the whole a good one for the US. He resurrected the team after the debacle of 1998, capitalized on a favorable draw to get the team into the quarters in 2002, and has certainly brought the team to a new level of reknown both nationally and internationally. He's leaving US Soccer in much better shape then he found it, but it now becomes the job of someone else (Juergen Klinsmann, anyone?) to get the team over the hump and turn them into true World Cup contenders.

The Verdict

2006-07-15T01:24:00.000-04:00

The landscape of European football and the Italian Serie A has just changed drastically.

Juventus, AC Milan, Lazio, and Fiorentina have found out their penalties for their involvement in a match fixing scandal.

Juventus
-Relegated to Serie B
-Automatic 30 point deduction next season
-Stripped of their 2005 and 2006 Serie A titles
-Kicked out of the 2006-2007 Champions League
-Five-year ban for ex-general manager Luciano Moggi
-Five-year ban for ex-chief executive Antonio Giraudo

AC Milan
-Allowed to stay in Serie A but given automatic 15 point deduction
-Kicked out of the 2006-2007 Champions League
-One-year ban for vice-president Adriano Galliani
-Club official Leonardo Meani banned for three years and six months

Lazio
-Relegated to Serie B
-Automatic 7 point deduction next season
-Kicked out of the 2006-2007 UEFA Cup
-Three-year ban for president Claudio Lotito

Fiorentina
-Relegated to Serie B
-Automatic 12 point deduction next season
-Kicked out of the 2006-2007 Champions League
-President Andrea Della Valle banned for three years and six months
-Four-year ban for honorary president Diego Della Valle

What Does This Mean for the Clubs Involved?
They all say they will appeal within the three days they are given but the relegations and bans from European action will remain.

AC Milan received the smallest punishment in comparison to their counterparts. They will probably miss out on European action in 2007-2008 because of the point deduction but staying in the top flight will ensure the club of not going in total financial meltdown. They are going to lose a bunch of players but they should get a solid return back.

Lazio had been facing financial problems for a few years so this is the worst news possible. They money given to them by Serie A and UEFA are huge parts of their budget that won’t be there. What makes this worse for Lazio is the fact that they don’t have many high caliber players that they can sell to help.

Fiorentina is the team you have to feel bad for. In June 2002, the club ceased to exist after falling into heavy financial problems. They were re-established later that year but started in the lowest league in Italy and had to work their way back to the top flight and earned a Champions League spot. They may be able to handle the demotion better than Lazio as they have some bigger names to sell. Namely Serie A’s top scorer from last year Luca Toni.

Juventus are the most successful and most popular team in Italian football. Not only does the relegation hurt the club, but it also hurts the league because it’s practically a certainty that they won’t be back for at least two years. Juve can certainly survive this partly because they are about to cash in on their big name players led by goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon.

What Does This Mean for Serie A?
The quality of Italy’s top flight has just taken a massive hit. By losing Juventus, they have lost their most successful club for at least two years. The Serie A race in the upcoming season will come down to Inter Milan and AS Roma. Inter Milan has already said they will try to sign either Luca Toni, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, or David Trezeguet. Roma will also spend a bit but that may be it. There isn’t much money in Serie A.

In regards to the European spots that have been vacated, Inter, Roma, Chievo Verona and Palermo, who finished third, fifth, seventh and eighth, are in line to take the places of the penalized clubs in next season's Champions League. Chievo Verona and Palermo may have to start in the preliminary stages instead of the third round which is typically where the lower two qualifying clubs start while the top two are automatically in the group stage. Livorno, Empoli, and Parma are probably headed to the UEFA Cup. Since three teams have been relegated, Messina, Lecce, and Treviso are probably going to stay up instead of getting relegated for finishing in the bottom three.

What Does This Mean for the Players?
No players were involved in the match fixing. This involved officials and referees. The major players on the clubs are going to want out. For Juventus, Lazio, and Fiorentina, this is a no-brainer. But for AC Milan, the debate is interesting. Since Milan is still in Serie A, certain players may stay but what will be deciding factor is the fact that Milan will be out for European action for the upcoming season. Just how much players want to play in Europe will determine whether they stay or go.

How Does This Figure Into What’s Going On in Europe?
Real Madrid elected a new president who brought in Fabio Capello to be the new manager. Capello was the manager of Juventus last season but resigned amid the match fixing charges. With a new regime come a whole bunch of new signings and you can expect some Juventus players to make their way to Madrid. It is expected to start with Italian captain Fabio Cannavaro and may also include Gianluca Zambrotta and Emerson. Defending Champions League and La Liga champions Barcelona are being linked with defender Lilian Thuram and Zambrotta and goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon.

There is plenty of speculation surrounding certain players leaving Manchester United. Following the Rooney red-card against Portugal, Cristiano Ronaldo made it clear that he would prefer to leave England fearing the abuse he may take. The 21 year old winger should fetch United approximately £25 million but United are adamant that they need him. In all honesty, the last thing Manchester United should be doing is selling a talented young midfielder Wayne Rooney has already reached out to Ronaldo hoping that he will stay. Yesterday, we found out that striker Ruud van Nistelrooy told Sir Alex Ferguson that he wants to leave Manchester United. This should come as no surprise considering the way last season ended as Ruud promptly left the team before the last match of the season. Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are very interested in the Dutch striker and with a strike force that features Wayne Rooney, Louis Saha, promising youngster Giuseppe Rossi, and the returning Alan Smith and Ole Gunner Solskjaer, Ruud is expendable. Plus, United could use that money to get Andrea Pirlo, Gennaro Gattuso, or Patrick Vieira.

Arsenal have lost defender Sol Campbell and are exploring all options. Reuniting Thierry Henry with French striker partner David Trezeguet would be rather interesting. Chelsea already signed AC Milan’s Andriy Shevchenko before the World Cup and appear set with their roster. But don’t be surprised if they do make a move for another player. Liverpool have made a slew of signings and appear to have their roster in place. Tottenham Hotspur could use a striker as they head to the UEFA Cup this season. They apparently really like Luca Toni.

In the upcoming days, expect more rumors to come out and some of them may end up being true. Some of the biggest clubs in Europe are about to get better increasing the gap between the rich and poor.

Consensus Reaction to Reds/Nats Trade: WTF?!?!

2006-07-14T04:13:00.000-04:00

If there's anything to the "wisdom of crowds", then Wayne Krivsky looks like a guy who had his pants stolen by a seagull. Clearly, we're not alone in thinking this was one of the all-time dumbest moves, as we take a look at reaction from around the sports blogosphere to the Day Jim Bowden Robbed the Reds...

Red Reporter -- "So I've thought about it, and I can honestly say that this is the worst trade the Reds have made in my lifetime."

Redleg Nation -- "I take back everything good I’ve ever said about Reds GM Wayne Krivsky. Jim Bowden robbed Krivsky today. This is very disappointing. Can anyone defend this trade?"

MiracleMets.net -- "The Reds basically just conceded the NL Central to the Cardinals, or at the very least, to a team that isn't them. I feel bad for them. How does a team make a trade where the three best players involved all go one way?"

Complete Sports -- "Stock up on canned goods. Yes folks, go out right now. Buy a generator as well while you're out. What's the occasion? Well, not only did Jim Bowden get the better end of a deal, he absolutely fleeced the Reds today."

Federal Baseball -- "...why this trade? Why deal two out of the main three cogs in his team's lineup (Lopez and Kearns are one-two in at-bats, though Adam Dunn's walks push Kearns to a close third in plate appearances)---including his starting shortstop---for an immediate return of two middle relievers, a middling shortstop, and a ultility infielder who, for all we know, might become as familiar with the International League as he has with the Pacific Coast League?"

BTF and more BTF -- "What else can be said about this trade? I’ve heard some talk about a Kearns trade this morning, but I never envisioned the horror that was unleashed by Wayne Krivsky on Cincinnati fans..." and, "Now it's true if Austin Kearns is your best player then you don't have a great team. But the solution to that problem isn't to trade your best player for middle relievers it's to go get better players."

Dissent Into Madness (GREAT blog title, btw) -- "Is Reds GM Wayne Krivsky serious? Doing whippits?"

Mike's Rants -- "I cannot see how this trade helps the Reds now or in the future. I can't possibly see what they think they got out of the trade."

Athletics Nation (diary) -- "Unless Kearns and Lopez are avian flu carriers, I don't understand this deal from the Reds' perspective at all."

McCovey Chronicles (diary) -- "I'm convinced that pharmaceuticals contributed to the decision-making here."

Minor League Ball (diary) -- "Did Felipe Lopez kick Krivisky's baby or something? This makes no sense."

The Cutting Edge -- "Excuse while I go vomit. And curse and swear. And vomit some more."

Now, the MSM...

Ken Rosenthal (FoxSports.com) -- "Upon learning of the deal, one rival general manager was dumbfounded."

Tracy Ringolsby (Rocky Mountain News, and possibly the only guy who seems to think the Reds did the right thing in this situation...) -- "Clayton was important to the Reds because they had to replace Lopez at shortstop, but Krivsky said he also thinks Clayton, 36, will provide a mature influence for talented second baseman Brandon Phillips."

Ben Sanders (Peru Tribune) -- "Fascinating. You mean players who play nine innings day in and day out are more valuable than those who pitch the sixth inning every other game? Someone should inform the good folks in Cincinnati of this breakthrough in baseball strategy before they trade away Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn too. Even Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, the man who made the deal, seemed to realize he had just done something that will appear bizarre and stupid to anyone with the slightest understanding of baseball."

Jim Massie (Columbus Dispatch) -- "The deal distressed Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn enough that both declined to comment about the deal. The two were especially close to Kearns."

Move It

2006-07-14T01:31:00.000-04:00

As David mentioned earlier, it was quite an interesting day in the baseball world. As often happens during the all star break, some roster moves and trades came down. And like David said, when I learned of the Reds/Nationals eight player swap, I was speechless. That would have been a great haul for Alfonso Soriano or Nick Johnson. But for two middle relievers? Jim Bowden ripped someone off. Jesus, did I say that? Bowden… ripped… some… one… off… Speaking of Jesus, wasn’t he part of this trade going to Cincinnati? More on that later however, as we first begin in the Bronx.

It’s been known for about two weeks now that Shawn Chacon was a dead man walking. So when the move finally happened officially today, I was only going to be surprised if the Yankees managed to find someone worse than Chacon to pitch. I mean, was that even possible? Probably not, as he had a K/BB below one, (.97) and a GB/FB ratio of .71. Even if the Yankees had picked up Scott Elarton, it would have been a lateral move.

So does that mean picking up Sidney Ponson makes sense? I still say no. The Yankees are settling for a destitute man’s Chien Ming Wang. Ponson’s peripherals are terrible; a 4.33 K/9, 1.14 K/BB with his lone somewhat redeeming quality being a GB/FB of 1.95. Mind you, that last number is still a full point lower than Wang’s 3.24 mark. So if Wang’s 1.30 WHIP is barely saved by that outrageous ratio, which allows him to maintain a mediocre 4.00 ERA, what the heck will Ponson’s ERA be like? Also add in that he’s moving from the National League to the American League, where you get at least two less free outs per game and you just wonder how come the Yankees couldn’t find anyone better.

For example, Phillip Hughes.

He’s in AA, and at the age of 20, is still very young. But he’s got a 2.75 ERA, 9.50 K/9 and a 3.03 K/BB mark there. This after dominating high A in 30 innings, striking out an even batter per inning while walking just two. It would be rushing him, but the Yankees have never hesitated at doing that before. It’s also not as if the Yankees care about when his arbitration clock starts ticking with their bottomless funds.

Why not give him a call up and see what he can do? If he stinks, no harm done. You send him to AAA or back to AA. At his age, he’s got time. And I doubt it would hurt his trade value, if the Yankees are looking in that direction. On the other hand, his upside is high. What’s Ponson’s? He hasn’t been a decent major league pitcher since 2003, and remember, that was the only time in his career he’s been able to make that claim.

As I said with the Mets and Mike Pelfrey, starting pitching isn’t out there on the trade market and certainly is not on the waiver wire. If a team wants help, it has to come from within. The Yankees’ best chance to solve their rotation woes is to roll the dice with Phillip Hughes.

How many starts will Ponson have to get bombed before they figure that out?

Seeing Red

Now that I’m no longer speechless over this Reds trade, let’s break down G.M. Wayne Krivsky's masterpiece. To begin, we’ll look at Felipe Lopez stats from this year; .268/.355/.394./.749 Are those numbers impressive? Nope, not at all. But a look at his OBP suggests things were due for a turnaround. Last year, despite a .291 clip, Lopez’s OBP was just .352. That’s right, his on base is higher this year than last. So if he’s walking more, and he’s on pace to nearly double his base on balls total from last year, then it stands to reason eventually his average will rise. Look at Jose Reyes; when a guy is getting himself out less, common sense says he his average will either maintain or go up, because he has to be making better contact when he does swing. The power may never repeat from last year, but it was not unreasonable he could hit 20 homers again had he stayed in Cinci. He also has 23 steals this year in 29 chances, which is a nice 79 percent. At the age of 26, he should still be improving as well.

Now Austin Kearns. After being sent back and forth between AAA and the majors over the last couple of years, Kearns finally earned a place in the lineup. He had splits of .274/.351/.492/.843 this year, which is solid. Granted those numbers were at Great American Ballpark, but Kearns has an OPS of .857 on the road this year. Plus, while those numbers are solid but not spectacular for a corner outfielder, Kearns could play center. It’s likely free agent to be Ken Griffey Jr. will be gone next season, so Kearns would have been a nice replacement. Instead, he’ll be patrolling center for the Nats for the foreseeable future.

Ryan Wagner has fallen apart since the Reds attempted to make him their closer last year. He’s even been lit up at AAA to a tune of a 6.34 ERA in 38.1 innings pitched. He’s struck out 28, walked 14 and surrendered 55 Hits! Those numbers are not pretty, but it was just a year ago that people though Wagner would be a dominant closer in the league. Heading to pitcher friendly Washington, he might get a chance as a setup man sometime soon.

What did the Reds get back? Middle relief help. And their savior.

What you mean Gary Majewski is just a son of a man, not the son of man? You could have fooled me. Well he hasn’t fooled hitters all that well this year, with an okay 3.58 ERA but 1.34 WHIP in 55.1 innings. Majewski’s K/9 is just 5.35 and his K/BB is 1.36, which even for a reliever, isn’t anything to write home about. His saving grace is his 1.75 GB/FB ratio, and he’ll need every one of those ground outs if he’s going to survive in Great American Ballpark. I’m not so optimistic. Also throw in to the equation that Majewski has already thrown all those innings, (he threw 88.1 last year) and he could easily be shot by mid August. Nothing to love here except, I guess, that he’s just 26.

The other big part of this trade, 23 year old lefty reliever Bill Bray, looks like he has a future in the league. He’s got a K/9 this year of 6.26 and a K/BB of 1.78 so far in 23.0 innings this season. He’s also posted a 1.64 GB/FB mark, which is solid. Clearly he’s the best player the Reds are getting back in this deal, which is downright pathetic.

Speaking of pathetic, Royce Clayton and his .663 OPS are headed to the Reds. If they thought Lopez and his 749 mark was a disappointment, what do they expect from the 36 year old Clayton? The answer should not be much; Clayton’s best season in Texas in 1999, he posted an .791 OPS. That was the only time in his career he got the mark over .750!

Maybe 21 year old Daryl Thompson ends up being something down the road. However, I tend to doubt that. Brendan Harris is a backup middle infielder at best. I mean did Krivsky decide that with the Reds having played this well, he had a secure job and should throw Bowden, who's on thin ice, a bone? This is as close to a welfare check as you're going to see in terms of the personnel movement in Major League Baseball.

So, kudos to Jim Bowden, who for the first time in this space, will get props. It’s about time Bowden realized on base guys are the ones to fill out a lineup in that park and with Kearns and Lopez, both of whom had OBP 70 points higher than their average, the Nats have helped themselves out big time.

In fact, that lineup could be really something the rest of the way. Just think about it, Soriano, Kearns and Guillen in the outfield. Johnson, Vidro, Lopez and Zimmerman on the infield and Schneider behind the plate. If they ever managed to keep Soriano next season, they could be a playoff contender. That is, if they sort out their pitching. The primary reason I don’t give them much of a chance the rest of the way this year is because right now with John Patterson essentially shelved for who knows how long, they’ve got no reliable starter in that rotation. And don’t tell me about Livan Large. He has been awful.

One team got a lot better today; the Washington Nationals. And while they’re a division rival, I couldn’t be happier.

Finally, someone else makes a trade worthy of as much contempt as Kazmir/Zambrano.

Don't Even Think About It Sepp

2006-07-13T18:14:00.000-04:00

The referees made some bad calls during the World Cup but if FIFA does this, it will be the worst call of all. Stripping Zinedine Zidane of the Golden Ball Award for best player of the World Cup would be an injustice.

FIFA is following standard procedure in investigating the headbutting incident between Zidane and Italy’s Marco Materazzi in the World Cup final. They will what led to the action that Zidane took and more importantly, if Materazzi provoked the French captain into doing it. Materazzi has already admitted that he has insulted Zidane but denies calling him a ‘dirty terrorist.’ Zidane went on French television yesterday saying Materazzi insulted his mother and sister and apologized to the children who had to see his reaction.

When we find out the results of the investigation, FIFA might do the unthinkable and take the Golden Ball away from Zidane. FIFA President Sepp Blatter said the following, “"The winner of the award is not decided by FIFA but by an international commission of journalists… Having said that, FIFA's executive committee has the right and the duty to intervene when faced with behaviours that are against the ethic of sport."

If Blatter and FIFA do decide to take the award away from Zidane, they will have tarnished the entire 2006 World Cup. Zidane’s sending off in the final is the big story but there are some who still remember what Italy went though, the magic of Ghana, and more importantly, the fact that Zidane was unbelievably amazing in this tournament.

Zidane headbutted Materazzi and was sent off. No one is defending the action and he has apologized. Even Materazzi himself has said that Zidane is deserving of the Golden Ball even though he beat teammates Fabio Cannavaro and Andrea Pirlo. As the entire world is getting off the World Cup high and getting ready for new national managers and a busy transfer market, it’s time to let this fade out.

MLB Roster Action

2006-07-13T18:11:00.000-04:00

1 - Kind of crazy, but "why the hell not?" also applies.

2 - Twenty bajillion kinds of crazy. I broke the news to Ben, telling him the Reds had traded Kearns, Lopez, and Ryan Wagner to the Nats and asking him who he thought they got in return. He said, "Soriano?" Nope. "Patterson?" Nope. "Not Nick Johnson..." Nope. Then I told him who they got. Normally, when Ben hears a bad trade, he loudly lambasts the GM who got screwed. This time, he was literally speechless and didn't say anything for a few moments. Then, he thought I was messing with him. Twenty bajillion, dude.

Fox and Baseball's Roots

2006-07-12T16:00:00.000-04:00

Do you like your Joe Buck in chunks or pureed? Clearly, Major League Baseball likes its fans diced and fried. By agreeing to 7 more years of Fox, and partnering with TBS for the first round of the playoffs, MLB has flagrantly ignored product quality in favor of up front cash.

Now, I'm generally of the view that the game sells itself. Baseball fans will watch and listen to the playoffs and the World Series no matter who announces them. If Albert Pujols is hitting line drives, if David Wright is laughing about his home runs, if eight of the fifteen best teams are in the playoffs, the fans will be there. Say what you will about Joe Buck's "I refuse to get excited unless Randy Moss pretends to moon the crowd" style or Timmy McCarver's semi-senile Brandon-isms, they are not the big problem. The big problem is that Fox doesn't believe the game can sell itself.

Football lends itself to spectacle, since each team only gets one game per week, so the carnival presentation of industrial sound effects and animations for every graphics change make sense on some level; it's difficult to overload when it's on so infrequently. For baseball, however, it's just tiresome. For the most part, local broadcasts don't pull that crap because they know the cumulative effect detracts from the product.

Where Fox is bad for baseball is in the long term. By treating baseball like they treat football, the implicit message is that baseball is boring, inherently dead, and needs extraneous kinetic energy. However, baseball's pacing and traditions are the virtues the game is built upon. The worst part of just about any modern ballpark experience, in this English major's opinion, is the loss of conversation time between innings thanks to loud music and teams' insane compulsion to create spectacle.

It appears that MTV is the model for baseball game presentations these days, but MTV was never meant to be a group activity like watching a baseball game is. As far as actually attending games, do teams really think that fans will stay away if there isn't any loud music or t-shirt giveaways between innings? Of course not. Does Fox really believe that their ratings will drop if they don't go for sensory overload? I'd think the quality of the teams and the games would have more to do with it than anything else.

What I'm most afraid of, though, is that Fox and MLB have created a self-fulfilling prophecy. We're at the point where there is an entire generation of baseball fans who don't know what the NBC broadcasts were like, let alone the CBS broadcasts. If Fox-style broadcasts and sensory overload at the ballpark become the norm, how can we expect kids to understand that the game is best experienced as an ongoing conversation, that it's a social exercise to heckle opposing players cleverly, to argue intelligently about the game with the fans around you? What will happen when going to a baseball game without NBA-style constant music becomes "boring", regardless of the game itself? What will happen when television broadcasts seem unspeakably dull to people if they don't see a color-coded flame telling them how hard a guy threw the pitch?

The game will die from the roots up. Baseball has never been about spectacle except during the playoffs at the highest level. It used to be about playing with your friends on the sandlot the way basketball is played everywhere every day now. In recent years, baseball's been about getting outdoors on the grass and dirt and playing in front of your parents and your teammates' parents in organized leagues. That's your audience. All the way up through the smaller college programs, that's who watches kids play. High school football and basketball games get cheerleaders and marching bands and the drum corps and cheering sections. High school baseball games get parents talking about batting stances in the bleachers on the first base side. It's a completely different culture.

So, when Fox decides that every game is a spectacle, it advocates a flawed picture of what's good about the game. It implies that only the exceptional is worthy of notice, and while that works for football, since every play is a relatively rare event (only about 3,200 per season) a baseball team sees more than 50,000 pitches per year. In that context, a full bore attack on the nervous system makes no sense. Rather, the drawn out character study, fleshed out by constant conversation and debate, fits the sport's nature.

Sportszilla's World Cup Awards

2006-07-12T02:13:00.000-04:00

It’s time for me to dish out the World Cup awards. I have seen all 64 matches and the results are in.

Best Game: Argentina vs. Mexico (June 24)
In a World Cup that was mostly defensive, the Argentina/Mexico match was extremely wide open and the game winning goal by Maxi Rodriguez was spectacular.
Runners Up: France vs. Italy (July 9), Tunisia vs. Saudi Arabia (June 14)

Worst Game: Switzerland vs. Ukraine (June 26)
The Swiss decided to forget about scoring and were obsessed with playing defense. Aside from their match against Saudi Arabia, the Ukrainians forgot how to score goals. It made for a dull game that went to penalties were the Swiss further embarrassed themselves.
Runners Up: Holland vs. Portugal (June 25), England vs. Portugal (July 1)

Best Goal: Maxi Rodriguez (Argentina vs. Mexico)
I should start by saying that the winger is right footed. He took the pass off his chest, nailed it with his left foot, and sent it over Oswaldo Sanchez and into the net. It came in extra time and proved to be the game winner as Argentina advanced to play Germany.
Runners Up: Philipp Lahm (June 9), Fabio Grosso (July 4)

Most Entertaining Team: Argentina
Since the real Brazil didn’t really show up this year, Argentina took over by playing some very attractive football. Their 6-0 thrashing of Serbia and Montenegro was an amazing display of offense. They way they passed the ball in that match was brilliant.
Runners Up: Germany, France

Least Entertaining Team: Switzerland
They were the epitomy of what this World Cup stood for as they were constantly playing defense. Granted they didn’t allow a goal but that doesn’t help when you can’t score.
Runners Up: Serbia and Montenegro, Paraguay

Best Manager: Jurgen Klinsmann (Germany)
Getting third place is a pretty good result for a man who many wanted gone before the World Cup started. He changed the German identity from one where they played defense and didn’t show emotion into a fun and entertaining squad that the German faithful could openly support.
Runners Up: Marcelo Lippi (Italy), Ratomir Dujkovic (Ghana)

Worst Manager: Sven Goran Eriksson (England)
This started with the decision to bring the untested Theo Walcott on the team and not even playing him when there was a striker crisis. Though they won Group B and advanced to the quarterfinals, England never played well.
Runners Up: Bruce Arena (United States), Pawel Janas (Poland)

Best Story: Inspired Italy
With the scandal going on in Italy, the Azzurri gave the nation something to make them forget about it. Despite the fact that nearly half the team could be on the move in the upcoming weeks pending the penalties given to those four clubs, they won it all. The also did it for former teammate Gianluca Pessotto who is currently in a hospital bed after attempting to commit suicide.
Runners Up: Ghana advancing, Oswaldo Sanchez playing after father’s death

Worst Story: The Referees
This World Cup set a record for yellow and red cards. FIFA wanted to cut down on the diving and shirt tugging and that’s fine but the referees took it too far. The flow of the game was disrupted leading to a boring match. Most of the penalty kicks given were an absolute joke and it cost certain teams the match and the chance to advance. The referees are supposed to been in the background to make sure nothing gets out of control, not come to the forefront with bold calls. FIFA has to consider making a movement toward full time officials.
Runners Up: The Excess Diving, Managers Getting Very Conservative, Togo’s Pay Demands

Breakout Star: Lukas Podolski (Germany)
The German forward who will be playing with Bayern Munich next season had a sensational tournament as he meshed well with Miroslav Klose. He had a fantastic tournament.
Runners Up: Lionel Messi (Argentina), Luis Valencia (Ecuador)

MVP: Fabio Cannavaro (Italy)
The Italian captain kept the entire defense organized throughout the World Cup. There were also times when he sparked the Italian offense as well. Simply put, he was brilliant.
Runners Up: Gianluigi Buffon (Italy), Zinedine Zidane (France)

LVP: Landon Donovan (United States)
When he packed his stuff to come to Germany, he forgot to bring his game with him. He certainly is the poster boy, the poster boy of a pathetic performance by the United States.
Runners Up: Mateja Kezman (Serbia and Montenegro), Ronaldinho (Brazil)

Sportszilla’s Best Team
Starters
Goalkeeper: Gianluigi Buffon (Italy)
Defenders: Fabio Cannavaro (Italy), Philipp Lahm (Germany), Fabio Grosso (Italy), John Terry (England)
Midfielders: Andrea Pirlo (Italy), Zinedine Zidane (France), Patrick Vieira (France), Maxi Rodriguez (Argentina)
Forwards: Miroslav Klose (Germany), Lukas Podolski (Germany)

Bench
Goalkeepers: Ricardo (Portugal), Jens Lehmann (Germany)
Defenders: William Gallas (France), Ashley Cole (England), Lucas Neill (Australia), Ivan Hurtado (Ecuador)
Midfielders: Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal), Luis Valencia (Ecuador), Gennaro Gattuso (Italy), Tranquillo Barnetta (Switzerland)
Forwards: Lionel Messi (Argentina), Fernando Torres (Spain)