The End, and a New Beginning By Zach

Today marks the final day of Sportszilla, at least on Blogger. Starting tomorrow, we're moving to a brand new website, www.sportszillablog.com, on a new server and with new content managing software. It will rpovide for a smoother, more enjoyable experience and will allow us to do a whole bunch of new and exciting things. For the time being, this site will serve as the archive of past Sportszilla goodness, but no new content will be published here.

Tomorrow we'll launch the new site with our NFL previews, and move on from there. Please join us in the future...and the future is now!

Below is a press release about the new site:

My name is Zachary Geballe, as some of you may know. As others of you may know, I run a sports weblog (blog) called Sportszilla and the Jabber Jocks. What I doubt any of you know is that Tuesday, September 5th, marks a whole new era for Sportszilla, and for me.

The launch of our new site, which can be found at www.sportszillablog.com, will coincide with our extensive NFL previews. From there, we’ll still be running the same great content that perhaps attracted you to Sportszilla in the first place.

I founded Sportszilla in November of 2004, which means we’re creeping up on a two-year anniversary. In my first post ever, I said “So, here’s my attempt at encapsulating the world of sports, at least from my point of view.” Yes, I know, a typically grandiose statement to make, but one that I still think holds true. From the beginning, I saw Sportszilla as an antidote, or at least an alternative, to sites like ESPN.com and the other lumbering behemoths of online sports writing. Of course, when I did this, there were few other places on could turn for regular, high-quality sportswriting. Today, nearly two years later, the Internet is littered with sports blogs, some good, some bad, and some that only lasted four posts.

Over the last 21 months, I’ve been fortunate enough to be able to add five excellent writers to the Sportszilla team, all of whom I’m also fortunate enough to call my friends. Ben Valentine, David Arnott, Bryan Koch, Imtiaz (T-Bone) Mussa, and John Schmeelk have provided excellent insight, analysis, and fun (plus a lot of soccer coverage from T-Bone) to the site. Sportszilla would never have become what it is today without all their hard work.

As we get ready to usher in the new era, a few things need to be said. The goal of Sportszilla was, is, and always will be to provide top-notch sports writing free of the typical clichés and inanities that plague newspapers and web sites. We have the luxury of being outside the corporate structure, so we can say what we truly think without fear of advertiser reprisal or loss of access. We’re also committed to helping grow the sports blogging community. I read about a dozen blogs on a daily basis and have visited hundreds more from time to time: long gone are the days when a few media outlets horded information and analysis, parceling it out in meager and unreadable doses; we can now function as sports fans without ever needing to subscribe to ESPN Insider or deal with some of the knuckleheads who write for other major websites.

So to those of you who are my friends and family, I invite you to check out the new site, which once again can be found at www.sportszillablog.com. For those of you who are in the sports blogging world, I too invite you to visit the new site (often), and more than that to link to it (if you so choose). One of the great things about the community of sports bloggers is that there’s a great sense of camaraderie, not competition, surrounding it.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions, comments, concerns, or fantasy football tips (my draft is tonight).

A Team of Cartoonish Proportions By Zach

My all-time favorite Simpsons episode is Homer at the Bat, mostly because it combines two of my loves, baseball and the Simpsons. Oh, and Ken Griffey, Jr. is in it. Today, I came to a somewhat-painful realization. The 2006 baseball season may, for all intents and purposes, be over. Thanks to an ever-expanding payroll (and a set of rules which allow for unlimited spending), Brian Cashman has assembled the most fearsome lineup I've ever seen outside of the Springfield Nuclear Plant. If Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield make it back into the lineup by the start of the post-season, the Yankees can run out this lineup every single day (stats through games of 8/22):

CF - Damon: .298/.369/.512/.881
SS - Jeter: .336/.413/.470/.883
RF - Abreu: .301/.441.459/.900
1B - Giambi: .262/.419/.602/1.020
3B - Rodriguez: .287/.389/.506/.895
DH - Sheffield (05): .291/.379/.512/.891
LF - Matsui (05): .305/.367/.496/.863
C - Posada: .270/.368/.463/.831
2B - Cano: .326/.355/.479/.834

Yes, that's right, a lineup where every hitter has an OPS above .831. There are only 32 hitters in the American league with an OPS over .831. It's a team that will not only hit the ball, and hit it hard, but a lineup that will make pitchers work. Even some of the best offensive teams of recent memory (1995 Indians, 1996 Mariners, 1998 Yankees, 2004 Red Sox) had at least one, if not more, hole in their lineup (Tony Pena/Omar Vizquel, Russ Davis, Chad Curtis, Pokey Reese/Doug Mientkeiwicz/Gabe Kapler). This Yankee team, on the other hand, has none.

But wait, you'll say, Matsui and Sheffield are on the DL. True. But Matsui should be back in a few weeks, giving him plenty of time to get in shape for the postseason. Granted, Sheffield is a bit further away. But even if he doesn't make it back, Melky Cabrera is hitting .287/.361/.412/.774. Not staggering, sure. But a .774 OPS is still above average, and while he may not be as good as Sheffield, he's still far from a "hole" in the lineup.

Talking this over with the unrepentant Yankee-hater Ben, he mentioned that he thought the Mets lineup was nearly as good. While the Mets lineup is very strong, you can see it's nowhere near the level of the Yankees:

SS - Reyes: .290/.346/.477/.823
C - Lo Duca: .311/.352/.415/.767
CF - Beltran: .288/.388/.628/1.016
1B - Delgado: .258/.356/.536/.891
3B - Wright: .299/.373/.522/.895
2B – Valentin: .285/.338/.497/.834
RF – Green: .283/.349/.429/.778
LF – Floyd: .245/.330/.416/.746

Sure, Carlos Beltran is having a monster season, and Reyes, Wright, and Delgado are tough outs. Hell, Jose Valentin is having a totally unexpected resurgance. But still, there are three guys in the lineup who have significantly lower OPS numbers than anyone in the Yankees lineup.

But the Yankees have been stacked in previous years and haven't won the World Series, you say. Well, that might be true. But first of all, they came damn close in 2003 and 2004. Second of all, neither team had an offense nearly as good as this one. Ok, fine, you might say. Still, all it takes is good pitching, and you can beat the Yankees, especially in a short series. I'll give you that Johan Santana and a healthy Francisco Liriano is not the first-round matchup the Yankees are hoping for. But first Liriano would have to get back off the DL (well, first the Twins would have to make the playoffs). An Athletics team with Dan Haren, Barry Zito, and a healthy Rich Harden would also perhaps cause problems, except Harden is an even bigger question mark than Liriano and the Yankees have owned Zito. Plus, there's no guarantee that Oakland could generate any offense, even against a fairly non-descript Yankee pitching staff.

Ah, the pitching: it's what wins you games in October (or so the conventional wisdom goes). Well, The Yankees may not have a great staff. They might not even have a good one. But it should be more than enough to get them their 27th title. Mike Mussina is still quite effective, Chien Ming Wang is a good starter no matter what Ben thinks, and Randy Johnson has pitched better in the last month. Plus, Mariano Rivera is still the best reliever in baseball history (especially once the postseason rolls around) and while the rest of the pen is nothing special, it's good enough.

Teams like Boston and Chicago (AL) will be unable to overcome their putrid pitching to make a real run at the World Series, but the lineup the Yankees have assembled is too powerful, too patient, and too deep to come up short. Sure, anything can happen: injuries, slumps, trips to the Springfield Mystery Spot. But much like Mr. Burns' team of ringers, the 2006 Yankees are a team that can not lose.

When Sports Fail By Zach

The recent news about disgraced former Ohio State running back Maurice Clarett has generated a number of different reactions. Some folks have expressed a fair amount of glee, while others have wondered what went wrong. In the end, the only question I see worth asking is "what can the decline and fall of Maurice Clarett tell us about sports, and America?"

Three and a half years ago he was completing one of the most breathtaking freshman seasons in college football history, capping it with a game-winning touchdown run in double overtime of the national championship game. Today, his future in football seems non-existant, and he'll have to struggle mightily to avoid a significant jail term. Along the way he's lobbed serious allegations at OSU, taken the NFL all the way to the Supreme Court, and proved that not all running backs can succeed in Denver.

Clarett's problems begin in a social setting in which professional athletics are seen as one of the few ways out of a lifetime of crime and poverty for many young black men. Couple that with the explotive nature of youth athletics, and you have a scenario in which a preternaturally talented young man such as Clarett learned quickly that as long as he kept scoring touchdowns he could get away with just about anything, whether it was in middle school, high school, or college. People would give him money, clothes, cars, and whatever else he wanted just to say that they were near him. Given that kind of treatment, are we surprised when Clarett (or many other star athletes) turn out to be less than stable?

I'm currently reading the fascinating book The Ticket Out: Darryl Strawberry and the Boys of Crenshaw, which details Strawberry's high school baseball team, perhaps the greatest collection of baseball talent in American high school history. For Strawberry (and his teammates), baseball was the golden ticket out of the ghetto: for Clarett, it was football. We've seen what the perks of being a star athlete did to Strawberry, and we're seeing the same forces at work in Clarett.

This isn't meant to exonerate Clarett. Ultimately, his choices, his behavior is his responsibility. But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to learn from his failures, to try and understand and prevent them. The first step is to create an environment surrounding youth sports which teaches kids that just because they can hit a ball farther, or run faster, or jump higher then their competition, it doesn't mean they know how to be a sucessful person. Besides, most high school stars don't ever make it to the professional ranks. Unfortunately, with all the money in pro sports there will always be kids (and parents) who have unreasonable expectations, and sleazy boosters, coaches, and others who will take advantage of that desperation.

The other step is to make sure that sports, and other long-shot careers (like music/acting/whatever) don't seem like the only way that poor kids can achieve. Again, this is a broad, idealistic suggestion, and I realize it. But the important thing to realize out of Maurice Clarett's life is that he's not some freakish anomoly...he's just self-destructed in public because he used to be really good at carrying the football. Until we as a society see that people like him are the products of our ignorance, our intolerance, and our apathy, we'll continue to see our current and former stars fall apart. While it might seem entertaining, it's mostly just sad.

The title of this post is "When Sports Fail," and I mean that. Sports failed Maurice Clarett. Being a star running back didn't teach him how to deal with failure, or adversity, didn't teach him how to live his life. From a young age he was told how great he was, and in many ways he remains that teenager, unable to interact with the world around him in a measured, healthy way. But unlike most of us, who grew out of that mindset (because we realized that things wouldn't be handed to us on a silver platter), Clarett remained warped: he expected his NFL millions to be handed to him (even a year or two ahead of schedule). Again, his choices to violate NCAA regulations and to take the NFL to court are his responsibility. But there's a much more complex explanation than that he's crazy. He worshipped at the idol of sports, and he learned that if such a god exists, it's capricious at best.

Hey, Sports Guy! Listen Up... By Blogger

David Ortiz is a baaaaad, baaaaad man. He spits on pitchers' graves. He cures what ails ya'. He hits home runs for the Red Sox. That said, Bill Simmons displays no understanding of the concept of league context in his comparison of Larry Bird and David Ortiz. Observe:

Bird averaged a 26-9-8 in the '86 playoffs, won the Finals MVP and cemented a summer of "Greatest Player Ever" features, then followed that up with a career year in '87 (28 points, 9.3 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 53 percent field-goal shooting, 91 percent from the line, 40 percent from 3s, his second straight title in the 3-point shooting contest). Meanwhile, Big Papi just completed the following 12-month stretch (starting on Aug. 1, 2005 and ending July 31, 2006): batted .294 with a .399 on-base and .604 slugging percentages, 59 homers, 165 RBIs and at least 20-25 humongous hits in the clutch. Sorry, those are Roy Hobbs numbers.

I'm not going to mess with the basketball claims, though I suspect someone with more time and know-how can show that Bird's greatness lies in his sustained excellence, not his peak.

Baseball, on the other hand, is right in my wheelhouse. Calling Papi's numbers from last August 1 "Roy Hobbs numbers" is hyperventilating blindness at its best. Papi is awesome, and those numbers sure do look sweet, but he's not so superhuman that nobody else is doing what he's doing. I give you several other hitters and their rate splits from 1 August 2005 through 1 August 2006 (give or take a day or three, due to the database needing time to catch up). They are all very much baaaaad, baaaaaad men. Without peeking, can you guess who they are? Stats via the Baseball Musings Stats Database, which is based on Retrosheet.

Papi: 296/401/642, 59HR
(Simmons's numbers are screwed up. He didn't give Papi enough credit to begin with!)

Player A: 295/413/610, 44HR
Player B: 314/432/649, 46HR
Player C: 291/368/615, 52HR
Player D: 319/426/629, 46HR
Player E: 289/407/619, 33HR
Player F: 327/425/586, 28HR
Player G: 301/406/584, 40HR

I'll tell you who they are right after this next bit of inanity from Simmons...

The DH thing will hurt Ortiz in any voting, which doesn't quite make sense -- so if he played 90 games at first base and gave you a C-plus there, that would make him more valuable? I don't get it. Bonds won the MVP in 2003 and 2004 moving around in left field like Redd Foxx. That gave him more credibility than Ortiz as a DH? Crazy.

If Papi played adequate first base (for the record, I have little doubt he could), Theo could have gone into the season planning on having Manny DH, and therefore have had more and better offensive AND defensive options for the lineup. While the Lowell/Youkilis combo has worked out beautifully at the corner infield spots, there's no way the Sox could have expected Lowell's contributions this year. Playing Youk at 3B, Ortiz at 1B, and figuring out whether Manny should DH and finding an outfielder, or acquiring a big bat to DH would have been a better problem to have than risking a Mike Lowell meltdown in order to get Beckett. Brian Giles, anyone?

As for the Bonds claim, let's see what Mr. "I may have used PEDs without knowing I used them" did over the ENTIRE 2003-04 seasons:

Barry Bonds: 353/572/783

Who was hitting like Roy Hobbs, again?

And the players I listed above...

A: Hafner
B: Pujols
C: Howard
D: Manny
E: Thome
F: Chipper
G: Berkman

Bonus: 8 guys have been intentionally walked as many times or more than Papi has since 1 August 2005 (It's good times hitting in front of Manny, isn't it?). Can you name them? ANSWER

Trading ARod: The Full Rundown By Blogger

Recent Development 1: The Yankees acquired Bobby Abreu over the weekend, and he will probably improve their offense significantly.

Recent Development 2: They also acquired Cory Lidle in the deal. Replacing Sir Sidney with Lidle is a solid upgrade.

Question arising from these developments: If the Yankees win the 2006 World Series, will the Scott Brosius Fan Club, aka the psychotic wing of Yankees fandom, finally consider Alex Rodriguez worthy of his roster spot, or will they claim the team won in spite of him?

All along, despite mediot goading*, the chances of the Yankees trading Rodriguez have been about the same as the chances Lindsay Lohan will call my cell tonight: technically possible, but, in reality, impossible. Why should they trade him? He slumped badly in June, and any smug bassbowl trying to justify the booing at that time would only have to insist that New York fans are a "what have you done for me lately?" crowd. However, the guy has been tremendous in July, walloping the ball to a 308/388/549 clip. The booing is uncalled for, and it's shameful (or hilarious, I guess, depending on your point of view) how a minority of Yankees fans are making the whole group look like a bunch of yokels.

ANYWAY, just to nail the point home, here, in alphabetical order by team name, is a list of what each MLB team would have to give up for ARod in trade. Zach, Ben, and I have already gone through the Mariners, Mets, and Giants, respectively, and you can follow the links below to more detailed reasoning for those trade proposals.

So, members of the Scott Brosius Fan Club (he of the career 95 OPS+), so that I'm clear, none of these deals will ever happen. You're "stuck" with ARod. Get over yourselves. The rest of MLB fandom hates you with a passion.

The The Angels Angels of Anaheim
Angels get: ARod
Yankees get: Howie Kendrick, Ervin Santana, Scot Shields, and Joe Saunders
Instant offense for the Halos, while the Yanks get a rookie replacement 2B/3B, two MLB-ready starters who would actually improve the back end of the rotation this year, and one of the top three setup guys in the majors.

Astros
Astros get: ARod
Yankees get: Roy Oswalt, Jason Lane, and Felipe Paulino
ARod plays SS, the offense is suddenly one of the best in the NL, and while losing Oswalt is huge, in order to get ARod now and for the future, they'll take their chances with Clemens and Pettitte leading the rotation. The Yankees would get a top-flight starter who is locked up for at least one more year, a slugging outfielder who could be the first bat off the bench, and a raw minor league fireballer.

Athletics
A's get: ARod, $8 million
Yankees get: Barry Zito, Dan Johnson, Jay Payton, and Mark Ellis
ARod plays SS, Crosby moves to 2B, and Daric Barton takes over at 1B with Swisher moving back to the OF full time. For the Yankees, Zito shores up the rotation, Johnson replaces Andy Phillips, Payton starts in LF until Matsui gets back, at which point he replaces Melky Cabrera off the bench, and Mark Ellis takes over 3B and hits ninth (which is a huge downgrade offensively, but the rest of the upgrade might make it worthwhile for this season).

Blue Jays
Blue Jays get: ARod
Yankees get: Dustin McGowan, Alex Rios, Reed Johnson, Eric Hinske, and Ted Lilly.
New York's OF problem gets solved right away with two guys who will also command a pretty penny in trade talks after the season, Abreu can even DH until either Matsui or Sheffield gets back, Lilly is a big improvement on the back of the rotation, McGowan is a highly-touted pitching prospect, and Hinske is a good-enough 3B stopgap (who can't hit lefties to save his life) until Eric Duncan is ready. For Toronto, ARod plays SS, Aaron Hill takes over 2B permanently, Frank Catalanotto mans RF, and Wayne Lydon comes up to play LF.

Braves
Braves get: ARod
Yankees get: Tim Hudson, Edgar Renteria, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia
You know what? I'm tired of justifying all these trades, and I'm on deadline. You can figure out how it benefits each team, and call shenanigans if I put together a stupid deal from here on out.

Brewers
Brewers get: ARod
Yankees get: Geoff Jenkins, Doug Davis, Dana Eveland, Jeff Cirillo, and Rickie Weeks

Cardinals
Cards get: ARod
Yankees get: Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, Jim Edmonds, Scott Speizio, and Colby Rasmus

Cubs
Cubs get: ARod
Yankees get: Aramis Ramirez, Mark Prior, Scott Eyre, and Juan Pierre

Devil Rays
Rays get: ARod
Yankees get: Jorge Cantu, Rocco Baldelli, Elijah Dukes, J.P. Howell, and Edwin Jackson

Diamondbacks
DBacks get: ARod
Yankees get: Shawn Green, Luis Gonzalez, Orlando Hudson, Miguel Batista, Luis Vizcaino, and Jorge Julio

Dodgers
Dodgers get: ARod
Yankees get: Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Wilson Betemit, and Kenny Lofton

Giants

Indians
Tribe gets: ARod
Yankees get: Jake Westbrook, Jason Michaels, Rafael Betancourt, Casey Blake, and Jeremy Guthrie

Mariners

Marlins
Fish get: ARod
Yankees get: Josh Willingham, Dan Uggla, Anibal Sanchez, Scott Olsen, and Joe Borowski

Mets

Nationals
Nats get: ARod
Yankees get: Soriano, Vidro, Bill Bray and Alex Escobar

Orioles
O's get: ARod
Yankees get: Tejada, Erik Bedard

Padres
Pad People get: ARod
Yankees get: Dave Roberts, Mike Piazza, Woody Williams, Bobby Hill, and Adrian Gonzalez

Phillies
Phils get: ARod
Yankees get: Jon Lieber, Aaron Rowand, Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell

Pirates
Bucs get: ARod
Yankees get: Freddy Sanchez, Craig Wilson, Oliver Perez, Ian Snell, and Mike Gonzalez

Rangers
Rangers get: Three hundred gun-totin' vigilantes storming Arlington
Yankees get: Brian Cashman hanging up the phone, debating whether or not to send choppers for Jon Daniels's body

Red Sox
BoSox get: ARod, Jason Giambi
Yankees get: Manny, Papi
(If Ben Broussard can take down USSMariner, then this trade might collapse the entire interweb.)

Reds
Reds get: ARod
Yankees get: Ryan Freel, Junior, Bronson Arroyo, and Bill Bray

Rockies
Rox get: ARod
Yankees get: Clint Barmes, Garrett Atkins, Aaron Cook, Brian Fuentes, and Todd Helton

Royals
Royals get: You get nothing! You lose! Good day sir!
Yankees get: N/A

Tigers
Tigers get: ARod
Yankees get: Carlos Guillen, Kenny Rogers, Magglio, and Zach Miner

Twins
Twinkies get: ARod
Yankees get: Brad Radke, Boof Bonser, Jason Kubel, Jason Bartlett, and Michael Cuddyer

White Sox
ChiSox get: ARod
Yankees get: Javier Vazquez, Scott Podsednik, Ray Liotta, and Josh Fields

You still with me? Congratulations. Without even taking into account salary considerations, you see what a foolish move it would be to trade ARod.

*I couldn't pass this up: Steve Phillips did a 5 Questions bit for the New York Post. The logic he gave for trading ARod is as follows: This has been going on for two years. The problem is that reality doesn't mean anything. There is this notion that he never hits in the clutch. There is this notion that A-Rod never makes a play. He has actually hit with runners in scoring position. I just don't think people are ever going to give him a break in New York... I just don't see how he is going to get out of [the abuse] in New York. If being the MVP, if being the Player of the Month, doesn't do it, then he is not going to do it. What happens is you see his performance start to deteriorate because he does care and he wants to earn the fans' respect. In other words, ARod's been abused by fans for two years and has been the AL MVP and won Player of the Month awards, but the booing obviously affects him. Yes, Steve. Clearly, he's just a shell of a baseball player because of the booing.

A Most Unlikely Return? By Zach

Since the trend 'round these parts seems to be figuring out what one's favored team would/should give up in order to acquire Alex Rodriguez, it figures that I might as well examine what it would take to return A-Rod to the organization which made him the first overall pick in the 1993 amateur draft. With the Mariners in the midst of a rather pathetic playoff race in the AL West, trade scenarios are always fun, especially when they involve the most hated ex-player in team history.

Mariner assets: The biggest is clearly "King" Felix Hernadez. Despite struggling at times this year, he's still one of, if not the, best pitching prospects in baseball. Just 20, he's got fanastic stuff and will be cheap and controlled for a few more years down the road. Behind him, the Mariners have a pair of young middle infielders, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez. Lopez was an all-star second baseman this year, while Betancourt is hitting nearly .300 and playing stellar defense. Recently-promoted centerfielder Adam Jones, also just 20, looks to be a star in the making as well. As far as more established players go, the Mariners have stud relievers Rafael Soriano (who perhaps could be reconverted to a starter) and JJ Putz, starter Gil Meche, third baseman Adrian Beltre, first baseman Richie Sexson, and outfielders Raul Ibanez and Ichiro Suzuki. Catcher Kenji Johjima, just a rookie, is another compelling player. The farm system is rather barren. Last year's first round pick, catcher Jeff Clement has looked decent, while Chris Snelling is a talented hitter who is frequently injured. Beyond that, it's the usual grab bag of power arms, guys with command problems, and hitters who either strike out too much and/or lack power. Basically, if a deal were to happen, it would almost certain involve guys on the big league roster.

Who the Yankees would want: King Felix, first and foremost. He's the only guy on the Mariners who could one day equal A-Rod in value. But I'd be stunned if he were moved: while this year has been disappointing at times, he's got almost limitless potential and is just 20. If the Yankees want youngsters, Jones is probably the next guy on their list. He fills a vital need by giving them some youth in the outfield, and he's got the potential to be a Mike Cameron/Eric Davis-type player. Assuming the Yankees wanted help this year, they could also look to grab either Ichiro or Ibanez. Ibanez has the added value of being cheap both this year and next, while Ichiro, though not in A-Rod's league, costs a fair chunk of change. Pitching help would be hard to come by from the M's: Meche could be made available, and the Mariners would gladly throw in either Jarrod Washburn, Jamie Moyer (though he has a no-trade clause due to being a 5-and-10 player), or Joel Pineiro.

On the Mariners end, unless the Yankees picked up a lot of A-Rod's deal, any potential trade would have to include Beltre: first of all, he'd be expendable with A-Rod, and second of all they've committed a lot of money to him. He might be attractive to the Yankees: he's still young, and has tons of potential, and he's a much better fielder than A-Rod. Perhaps in that lineup he might see better pitches and succeed.

So here's the prospective deal: the Mariners send Beltre, Ibanez, Jones, and Meche to the Yankees for A-Rod. The Yankees get back an outfielder better than anyone they have on the field currently, plus a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy in Meche. They get a natural third baseman in Beltre who, while no guarantee to come even close to A-Rod's production does have that massive 2004 season in his history. Who knows, he might be able to regain his form in pinstripes. They also get a talented young outfielder who could become the latest in a long line of Yankee greats in center. The Mariners get back perhaps the top player in baseball, and while losing Jones hurts, the other parts are fairly easy to replace: Meche is going to be a free agent this offseason anyhow, Ibanez has been productive but could drop off the face of the earth, and Beltre has been a massive failure in Seattle.

Would the Yankees do it? Probably not. I doubt they're actively shopping A-Rod, but if they were I'd have to imagine they could get more in return. On the other hand, this deal gives them more usable parts then, say, Ben's deal, so it's a possibility.

Would the Mariners do it? From a talent standpoint they'd be stupid not to. They give up one top prospect in order to get back one of the best players in baseball. While they'd take on slightly more salary, it would be worth it to add a bat like Rodriguez's to the lineup. But then again, there's the PR factor. I was at the first game A-Rod played in Seattle after signing with Texas, and while the fan reaction has mellowed since then he's still the most-hated former Mariner in history. It would take a rather large set of, um, courage on the part of Bill Bavasi to bring him back, and while Seattle is far more civil then New York he'd be booed almost instantly unless he produced. In the end, I think the baggage and the money probably scare the Mariners off, but it's a tough call.

Trading ARod: San Francisco Giants By Blogger

Fans in the Bronx have been painting an ugly self-portrait recently, what with booing Alex Rodriguez at every opportunity. Let me repeat: booing the best all-around player in baseball at every opportunity. National commentators are circling like vultures, and voices of reason keep falling on deaf ears.

So, what to do? Obviously, Sportszilla has to figure out if our knee-jerk reaction is correct, if it really would be idiotic for the Yankees to trade ARod. In the first of what could become a series, I'll examine what the San Francisco Giants would have to give up in order to get Rodriguez. The working assumption is that every team in MLB would gladly make room for ARod, but what would they have to give up to get him?

GIANTS' ASSETS
Jason Schmidt is a free agent after this season. He's in his early thirties, so a five year deal at more than 10 million dollars per year could be a disaster at the back end. Folks in the Bay Area have been speculating that Schmidt is likely to return to his Pacific Northwest roots and sign with the Mariners this offseason, though Brian Sabean hasn't ruled out an attempt to re-sign him. Matt Morris has pitched better of late, but his terrible start to the season might portend worse things in the next two years of his contract. Jamey Wright is trash. Matt Cain is the prize young pitcher carrying the organization's hopes for the future. In an ideal world, in the next few years, Cain makes the leap like Scott Kazmir, Noah Lowry defies his list of comparables to become the poor man's Andy Pettitte, and Tim Lincecum, this year's tenth overall draft pick, rides the fast track to the majors and bursts on the scene with mid-career David Cone numbers. Jonathan Sanchez had a tremendous season in the Sally League last year, and is already helping out in the big league bullpen. While he could be a great reliever right away, his highest upside is as a starter. Armando Benitez is the closer, but something tells me the Yankees wouldn't want to go down that road again. So, while the Giants have some interesting pitching prospects that will be developing over the next few years, nothing is assured, and they will almost certainly look to bolster their staff through free agency as they move forward.

Among the hitters, Barry Bonds is going nowhere this season. Randy Winn signed a contract extension prior to this season that runs through 2009 with a full no trade clause through 2007. Omar Vizquel and Mark Sweeney are signed through 2007. Eliezer Alfonzo is a rookie. Moises Alou, Shea Hillenbrand, Pedro Feliz, Ray Durham, and Steve Finley will all be free agents after this season. As far as prospects, the Giants have a barren system. Kevin Frandsen isn't much more than a utility prospect. In 2005, Todd Linden had one of the best seasons the Pacific Coast League has seen in recent memory, but he's 26 years old and already saddled with the AAAA label. Travis Ishikawa is young, crushed the ball in the Cal League last season, but appears to have stalled in AA this year.

WHO WOULD THE YANKEES WANT?
Jason Schmidt is the guy who sticks out most. The Yankees need starting pitching, and the Giants have to clear payroll in order to take on the 20 million dollars or so that the Yankees are paying ARod. In light of that pitching deficiency, all the young pitchers (except Lincecum, who can't be traded by rule) are enticing. Moises Alou must also look fairly intriguing, since neither Gary Sheffield nor Hideki Matsui is likely to be back before the end of the season, but injury concerns will be a major issue for the rest of his career. Robinson Cano is decent, but Ray Durham has slugged well over .500 this season and would fit nicely behind Posada in the lineup. Cano can move to third if Shea Hillenbrand or Pedro Feliz aren't included in the deal.

FINAL PROPOSAL
Giants get: Alex Rodriguez ($20 million) (70RC)
Yankees get: Jason Schmidt, Noah Lowry, Ray Durham, Moises Alou, Shea Hillenbrand ($30.5 million) (194RC, Hillenbrand excluded)

The Yanks would insert both pitchers into the rotation to go with Johnson, Mussina, and Wang, promptly DFA Sidney Ponson and Shawn Chacon, and probably move Jaret Wright to the bullpen. Alou would play LF. Durham would play 2B with Cano moving to 3B. Hillenbrand would play 1B so that Giambi can DH. Goodbye Andy Phillips. Goodbye Bubba Crosby. Goodbye Nick Green. Suddenly, the Yankees have a deeper lineup and rotation. While losing ARod hurts, the pitching takes a leap forward. After the season, only Lowry would be guaranteed to stay, as the rest are free agents. However, combined with the assumed departures of Sheffield and Bernie Williams, the exodus also frees up lots of money to blow on free agents. Hark! Barry Zito approaches! Where art thou, Carlos Lee?

CF Damon
SS Jeter
DH Giambi
LF Alou
C Posada
2B Durham
1B Hillenbrand
3B Cano
RF Williams

SP Mussina
SP Schmidt
SP Johnson
SP Wang
SP Lowry

The Giants would move Sanchez and Hennessey into the rotation. For the rest of this year, that means there'd be only two surefire Major Leaguer starting games (Cain, Morris), and the rest are shaky propositions. Todd Linden would split time with Steve Finley, forcing Randy Winn to split time between CF and RF since Finley won't play corner OF. What they would do with ARod would depend on Omar Vizquel. If Omar refuses to move, ARod plays 3B and Feliz moves to 1B or plays more corner OF. Kevin Frandsen would then be asked to take over at 2B. If Omar is willing to move to 2B, ARod can play SS, Feliz stays at 3B, and Mark Sweeney platoons at 1B with Todd Greene. The lineup has a fearsome twosome in the 3-4 slots and isn't an embarrassment at any of the other positions (unless you think Linden will never be more than the destitute man's Russell Branyan). After the season, Bonds's contract will be off the books in addition to the contracts of the guys they traded away and didn't pay for the rest of this season. Some of that money will go to ARod, who is only guaranteed through 2007, since he can opt out in 2008-2010. However, with all the young pitchers, there will still be money left over to make a non-insulting offer to Bonds if he wants to play another season and go after lower-tier free agents such as Byung Hyun Kim or Jay Payton, or re-sign Feliz.

CF Winn
2B Vizquel
SS Rodriguez
LF Bonds
3B Feliz
1B Sweeney/Greene
RF Linden
C Alfonzo

SP Cain
SP Morris
SP Sanchez
SP Hennessey
SP Wright

WOULD THEY DO IT?
The Giants wouldn't do it this year. The ecstasy of acquiring Rodriguez would be tempered by the impression that the team had given up on this season when they were in the thick of things. The Runs Created also shed light on why this is ultimately a tough deal for the Giants to accept even in a PR-less video game world. According to that number, Jason Schmidt has been the most valuable player this year among all the players in the trade. Furthermore, despite compiling less than half the RC of the guys going to New York, Rodriguez is being paid two-thirds their salary. If the Yankees pick up part of ARod's tab, say, another 5 or 6 million dollars per year, then the deal becomes much more manageable and the Giants would almost certainly have to do it, since it would essentially amount to trading Lowry for ARod.

Harolding a New Age By Zach

So the sad news came to my attention this morning: Harold Reynolds, former Mariner second baseman and current ESPN broadcaster has, apparently, been fired. At the present moment, no particular reason has been given: he did have a rather heated exchange with resident dugong/ex-Phillie John Kruk a few days ago, but I find it hard to believe that even as incompetant an organization as ESPN would fire him for that.

Growing up, Baseball Tonight was my favorite program, at least after Keith Olberman left the network and SportsCenter turned into the bloated special features-fest it is today. When you had Ravech, Reynolds, and Peter Gammons you knew you were getting the best 30 minutes of baseball talk the WorldWide Leader could put on the air.

Sadly, that combo rarely appeared together, as we were more often subjected to the horrors that were Kruk, Jeff Brantley, Rob Dibble, Steve Phillips, and many others. It's as if ESPN realized they had a good show and decided to make it nearly unwatchable as much as possible.

So the question is, where does ESPN go from here? Granted, they'll probably just toss in another ex-player, or give us more Tino Martinez/Orestes Destrada, but maybe, just maybe, they'll get creative. Considering the increasing influence of sabermetrics, why not hire someone who can counter the inevitable "Josh Beckett is having a great year because he's got 13 wins nonsense" with the counterpoint that, gosh, he's getting a hell of a lot of run support and generally his numbers suck. I'm sure there must be someone at Baseball Prospectus, or the Hardball Times, or something like that who could fit as an on-air personality. ESPN already has the ex-player role filled, and fills the journalist role with the host (and Gammons or Kurkjian whenever they're on). So why not give a voice to the statistician/fan? I know I'd watch it...

You Don't Shea. Hillenbrand's A Giant. By Blogger

When the Giants traded Jeremy Accardo for the recently DFAed Shea Hillenbrand and middle reliever Vinny Chulk, I felt a twinge of sickness in my stomach. Giants fans had started to regard Accardo as the team's closer of the future; they could have traded Proven Closer(tm) Armando Benitez for whatever they could get this offseason, inserted Accardo into the role and put the salary savings into signing a hitter or starting pitcher. Though his minor league numbers are far from overwhelming, they're decent--and man, is his stuff electric. To sum up, this is not Gary Majewski. More like Bill Bray. And the Giants got a LOT less than the Nats did.

This may be the first time I'm in agreement with Bruce Jenkins about something baseball-related, but at least I can take solace in knowing his reasoning is completely different from mine. While Jenkins thinks the deal was bad because Hillenbrand is a bad apple and could contaminate the team's chemistry (a conclusion he could only reach from personal contact with the players, affirming his role as "expert" voice), I'm much more concerned about a little thing called on-field production. Though some people seem to be comparing Hillenbrand to Lance Niekro, and it's really no comparison with Niekro's putrid season with the stick, Sir Lancelot is toiling for Fresno in the PCL; the comparison should be between what Hillenbrand will likely do down the stretch and what Mark Sweeney will likely do. Let's look at the numbers as I laid them out in a diary on McCoveyChronicles, slightly edited for clarity:

2006 Hillenbrand: 1.1 WARP
(80 games, 316 PAs, God knows how much DHing kept the WARP from sinking, as he's firmly below average--1B--to awful--3B--with the leather)

2006 Mark Sweeney: 1.3 WARP
(73 games, 215 PAs, defense in LF actually hurts him, but defense at 1B has been excellent)

(Sh**s and Giggles) 2006 Lance Niekro: 0.4 WARP
(52 games, 191 PAs, best defensive 1B in the game)

2006 Vinny Chulk: 4.66 FIP

2006 Jeremy Accardo 2.50 FIP(!!!)
For reference, of NL relievers who had thrown more than 35 IP through 7/22, that's THIRD, and it's roughly in line with Bobby Jenks and Scot Shields's FIPs.

Using more HardballTimes metrics, not taking fielding into account:

Sweeney: 28 RC in 215 PAs (5.4 RC/G)
Accardo: 16 PRC in 40.3 IP
Total up to date: 44

Hillenbrand: 38 RC in 319 PAs (5.0 RC/G)
Chulk: 7 PRC in 24 IP
Total up to date: 45

So, the total Runs Created is about equal up to this point in the season, and it appears that Hillenbrand is the best player changing teams. However, after adjusting for playing time, Sweeney has outproduced Hillenbrand, and Accardo has still outproduced the Vincredible Chulk.

While Sweeney has been shielded from facing lefties for the past few years because he simply can't hit them, he's better than Hillenbrand against righties. Coupled with his superior fielding, it makes sense that the two ought to be paired in a fairly strict platoon, with Hillenbrand also spelling Pedro Feliz at third base on occasion. However, that's not how the Giants plan on using them. Hillenbrand will get the bulk of the starts, and Sweeney will once again be relegated to bench duty. But even if the Giants were to employ a platoon, they already had a legitimately decent right-handed partner for Sweeney in backup catcher Todd Greene.

Greene L/R Splits 2003-05
vs. R: 235/258/421
vs. L: 288/335/540

Hillenbrand L/R Splits 2003-05
vs. R: 285/329/438
vs. L: 315/353/516

In other words, Greene, who has played some first base this year, has a comparable line against lefties and could have stepped in as a Matt Lecroy clone, a lefty-mashing 1B/C combo. But no. The Giants had to trade a young guy with nasty stuff for a superfluous rental whose previous manager challenged him to a fight. I would have much preferred if the Giants traded one of their less heralded young middle relievers for a bench upgrade; Jose Vizcaino shouldn't be on anyone's roster, let alone getting important pinch hit opportunities.

It looks like there's a wide variety of opinion on the deal, but in this household, I come down on the "Oh God no!" side of the equation.

But I can still see the "Sure, why not?" side from here.