Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Your Pythagorean Standings - NL
By Zach

Since we're now 1.5 months into the regular season, I figured it was time to take a look at the standings around baseball, not just through the W/L columns, but through pythagorian wins as well. For the AL, check yesterday's post. Today, the National League. Thanks to Hardball Times for the data.

NL East

New York24-1422-16

One of the things PWins usually show is that, especially early in the season, teams are rarely as bad as their record would indicate. Such is the case with both the Nationals and Marlins, on pace for 108 and 114 losses respectively. While both might end up near 100, it's unlikely that both teams would be that bad. The NL also shows that Mets fans should perhaps be more worried about the Braves then the Phillies.

NL Central

St. Louis24-1524-15

This is a fascinating division. You've got the Cardinals on top, but many of their pitching stats seem unreasonably high. They're stranding 75% of baserunners, tops in the NL. They're also tops in GB%, which combines to mean that they're also tops in the NL in runs allowed per game. Will it last? I find that a bit hard to swallow. Meanwhile, you've got a trio of teams which in the Pythagorean standings are a 1/2 game apart. Oh, and the Cubs are even worse than the Pirates, apparently...guess money can't buy you wins.

NL West

San Diego22-1822-18
Los Angeles20-2022-18
San Francisco20-2019-21

For all the talk about how weak the NL West was supposed to be, it's been the best division in baseball so far. No team under .500, and only one that should be. Furthermore, it's also the divsion with the least variance from their projected win totals. What's that mean? It means the division is as wide open as most people thought heading into the year, as any of the five teams could legitimately win it. Should be a fun summer.


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